Regional grids key to Singapore’s energy future
Regional grids key to Singapore's energy future Ember-climate.org
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Per capita power sector emissions
We calculated per capita power sector emissions using annual population data from the United Nations and the projected population growth for Singapore in 2030 (6.9 million). The emissions generated from different fuel types were calculated by multiplying generation numbers by emissions factors taken from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report Annex 3 (2014). Then, total emission numbers were divided by the population data for a given year.
Electricity mix projection
Projected emissions for 2030 and 2035 were calculated using electricity demand growth of 3% and the energy sources generation breakdown based on Singapore’s Green Plan 2030: solar capacity up to 2 GWp, switch other fossil fuels to gas and imports of low-carbon electricity. This report applies the solar photovoltaic capacity factor of 20% based on this study. Capacity for Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) plants is calculated to be 85%, according to a paper published by ETH Zurich and an IEA report. Emissions factor for CCGT plans is calculated to be 508.21 (gCO2eq/kWh) according to Ember’s electricity data explorer.
Investment costs
The investment cost for gas contracts is calculated based on the capital cost component assumption of CCGT plants, variable non fuel costs, carbon price and fuel cost from the strike price for gas of $10.025 USD mmBTU in Q1 2024 in the Japan Korea Marker Spot Market. Carbon price is calculated based on the average carbon tax rates introduced by the National Environmental Agency Singapore, at $50 SGD per tonne, between 2024 and 2030. The exchange rate used was from 17 Jan 2024, where $1 USD = $1.34 SGD.
The investment cost for solar projects is estimated at the cost of the project in Riau island, Indonesia. The investment for offshore and onshore wind projects is calculated based on preliminary financing, development financing and operational costs, in accordance with the guidelines published by the Wind Energy Investment Guidelines for Viet Nam.
IEA’s net-zero emissions milestone
The power mix breakdown for the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) net-zero emissions milestone is calculated using the annual electricity demand growth forecast of 3%. We also project gas and other fossil fuels reaching zero generation by 2045 with average annual generation reduction of 2.3 TWh between 2022 and 2045 and solar capacity reaching 8.6 GW in 2050. The capacity factor for solar generation is calculated to be 20%.
We calculate the capacity needed to generate 50 TWh of electricity in 2035 to be 8.1 GW by using 70.08% capacity factor. This capacity factor is assumed from the EMA plans to import up to 4 GW of renewables by 2035, which translates to 30% renewables electricity share, or 25 TWh.
ACCEPT’s 2050 net-zero emissions scenario
The power mix breakdown for ACCEPT’s 2050 net-zero emissions scenario is obtained from a study written by Handayani et. al (2022) financed by the ASEAN Climate and Energy Project (ACCEPT).
SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?
- SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
- SDG 13: Climate Action
- SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?
- SDG 7.2: Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix
- SDG 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning
- SDG 17.17: Encourage and promote effective public, public-private, and civil society partnerships
3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?
- Per capita power sector emissions
- Electricity mix projection
- Investment costs
- IEA’s net-zero emissions milestone
- ACCEPT’s 2050 net-zero emissions scenario
The article discusses the calculation of per capita power sector emissions, which is an indicator that can be used to measure progress towards SDG 7.2. It also mentions the electricity mix projection, which includes the generation breakdown based on Singapore’s Green Plan 2030 and the projected solar capacity. This projection serves as an indicator for tracking progress towards SDG 7.2 and SDG 13.2.
The article further discusses investment costs for gas contracts, solar projects, and wind projects. These investment costs can be used as indicators to measure progress towards SDG 17.17, as they reflect the involvement of public, private, and civil society partnerships in the development of renewable energy infrastructure.
The article also mentions the IEA’s net-zero emissions milestone and ACCEPT’s 2050 net-zero emissions scenario. These milestones serve as indicators for tracking progress towards SDG 13.2 and SDG 17.17, as they represent the integration of climate change measures into national policies and the collaboration between different stakeholders to achieve net-zero emissions.
4. Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
| SDGs | Targets | Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy | SDG 7.2: Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix | Per capita power sector emissions Electricity mix projection |
| SDG 13: Climate Action | SDG 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning | Electricity mix projection IEA’s net-zero emissions milestone |
| SDG 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning | ACCEPT’s 2050 net-zero emissions scenario | |
| SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals | SDG 17.17: Encourage and promote effective public, public-private, and civil society partnerships | Investment costs |
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Fuente: ember-climate.org
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