World Economic Outlook, April 2024
World Economic Outlook, April 2024 International Monetary Fund
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Chapter 4: Trading Places: Real Spillovers from G20 Emerging Markets
Introduction
The G20 emerging markets, which account for almost one-third of world GDP and about one-quarter of global trade, have the potential to create significant spillovers that can impact global activity. This report focuses on the spillovers from shocks originating in these economies and their implications for the global economy. It highlights the increasing importance of G20 emerging markets, particularly China, in generating spillovers since 2000. The report also emphasizes the role of trade, especially through global value chains, as a key channel for propagating these spillovers. The reallocation of economic activity across firms and sectors in other countries is a direct consequence of these spillovers.
Spillovers from G20 Emerging Markets
Since 2000, the magnitude of spillovers from shocks in G20 emerging markets has grown significantly and is now comparable to those from shocks in advanced economies. This finding underscores the increasing influence of these emerging markets on the global economy. The report specifically highlights China as a major contributor to these spillovers. Trade plays a crucial role in transmitting these shocks, particularly through global value chains. The interconnectedness of economies through trade has led to a redistribution of economic activity across firms and sectors in recipient countries.
Implications for Global Growth
Looking ahead, a plausible growth acceleration in G20 emerging markets, even excluding China, could have positive effects on global growth over the medium term. This growth could also spill over to other countries, further boosting global economic activity. However, it is crucial for policymakers in recipient economies to be prepared for larger shocks originating from G20 emerging markets. Maintaining sufficient buffers and strengthening policy frameworks will be essential in managing the potential impact of these shocks.
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
The findings of this report have significant implications for the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs aim to address various global challenges, including poverty, inequality, and climate change. By recognizing the importance of G20 emerging markets and their spillovers, policymakers can better align their efforts with the SDGs. Promoting sustainable economic growth and ensuring the resilience of recipient economies will contribute to the overall progress towards the SDGs.
SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?
- SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
- SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
- SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
The issues highlighted in the article relate to the global economic impact of shocks originating in G20 emerging markets. These issues are closely connected to SDG 8, which focuses on promoting sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment, and decent work for all. Additionally, SDG 9, which aims to build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and foster innovation, is also relevant as it highlights the importance of global value chains and economic activity across firms and sectors. Lastly, SDG 17, which emphasizes the importance of global partnerships for sustainable development, is relevant as it calls for strengthening policy frameworks and cooperation among countries to manage shocks from G20 emerging markets.
2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?
- Target 8.1: Sustain per capita economic growth in accordance with national circumstances and, in particular, at least 7 percent gross domestic product growth per annum in the least developed countries.
- Target 9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and, by 2030, significantly raise industry’s share of employment and gross domestic product, in line with national circumstances, and double its share in least developed countries.
- Target 17.11: Significantly increase the exports of developing countries, in particular with a view to doubling the least developed countries’ share of global exports by 2020.
Based on the article’s content, the specific targets that can be identified are related to sustaining economic growth, promoting inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and increasing exports. These targets align with Target 8.1 of SDG 8, which focuses on sustaining per capita economic growth, Target 9.2 of SDG 9, which aims to raise industry’s share of employment and GDP, and Target 17.11 of SDG 17, which aims to increase the exports of developing countries.
3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?
- Indicator 8.1.1: Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita
- Indicator 9.2.1: Manufacturing value added as a proportion of GDP and employment
- Indicator 17.11.1: Developing countries’ and least developed countries’ share of global exports
The article does not explicitly mention specific indicators, but based on the identified targets, the following indicators can be used to measure progress:
– Indicator 8.1.1: This indicator measures the annual growth rate of real GDP per capita, which can be used to assess whether per capita economic growth is being sustained.
– Indicator 9.2.1: This indicator measures the proportion of manufacturing value added in GDP and employment, providing insights into the progress of inclusive and sustainable industrialization.
– Indicator 17.11.1: This indicator measures the share of global exports held by developing countries and least developed countries, indicating progress towards increasing exports.
4. Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
| SDGs | Targets | Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth | Target 8.1: Sustain per capita economic growth in accordance with national circumstances and, in particular, at least 7 percent gross domestic product growth per annum in the least developed countries. | Indicator 8.1.1: Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita |
| SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure | Target 9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and, by 2030, significantly raise industry’s share of employment and gross domestic product, in line with national circumstances, and double its share in least developed countries. | Indicator 9.2.1: Manufacturing value added as a proportion of GDP and employment |
| SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals | Target 17.11: Significantly increase the exports of developing countries, in particular with a view to doubling the least developed countries’ share of global exports by 2020. | Indicator 17.11.1: Developing countries’ and least developed countries’ share of global exports |
Behold! This splendid article springs forth from the wellspring of knowledge, shaped by a wondrous proprietary AI technology that delved into a vast ocean of data, illuminating the path towards the Sustainable Development Goals. Remember that all rights are reserved by SDG Investors LLC, empowering us to champion progress together.
Source: imf.org
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