Report on Climate-Induced Food Price Volatility and its Impact on Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

An international scientific study reveals that extreme weather events, intensified by climate change, have caused significant food price shocks globally between 2022 and 2024. These events directly threaten the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to poverty, hunger, health, and climate action. The findings underscore the urgent need for resilient food systems and accelerated efforts to achieve net-zero emissions to safeguard global food security and sustainable development.

Global Impact of Climate-Induced Food Price Volatility on Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction

A study led by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center-Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC-CNS) investigated 16 instances of severe food price increases across 18 countries from 2022 to 2024. The research links these price spikes directly to extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and heavy precipitation, many of which were unprecedented before 2020. These findings highlight a critical challenge to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, demonstrating how climate impacts can reverse progress across several interconnected goals.

Threats to SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger)

The direct impact of crop failures and subsequent price hikes on food security and household economies presents a significant setback for SDG 1 and SDG 2. Low-income households, which spend a larger proportion of their income on food, are most vulnerable. The study documents numerous cases where climate extremes have jeopardized food access and affordability.

1. United Kingdom: Potato prices increased by 22% in early 2024 following extreme winter rainfall made 10 times more likely by climate change.
2. United States: Vegetable prices in California and Arizona rose 80% in November 2022 after an extreme summer drought.
3. Ethiopia: Food prices were 40% higher in March 2023 following the worst drought in 40 years, an event made about 100 times more likely by climate change.
4. European Union: The price of olive oil increased by 50% by January 2024 due to the 2022-2023 drought in Spain and Italy.
5. Global Commodities:
   • Cocoa prices surged by 280% by April 2024 after a heatwave in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
   • Global coffee prices were 55% higher in August 2024 following drought in Brazil and a 100% price rise for Robusta coffee by July 2024 after record heat in Vietnam.
6. India: Onion and potato prices jumped over 80% in mid-2024 after a heatwave made at least 1.5°C warmer by climate change.
7. Japan & South Korea: Rice prices in Japan rose 48% and cabbage prices in South Korea rose 70% in September 2024 following record-breaking summer heatwaves.
8. Pakistan: Rural food prices increased by 50% following the August 2022 floods, where monsoon rains were 547% above average.
9. Mexico: Fruit and vegetable prices were 20% higher in January 2024 following one of the country’s most severe droughts in a decade.

Implications for SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities)

Food price shocks exacerbate health crises and deepen inequalities, directly challenging SDG 3 and SDG 10. Research from the Food Foundation indicates that healthy food is, on average, twice as expensive as less healthy alternatives. When prices rise, low-income families are often forced to substitute nutritious foods like fruits and vegetables with cheaper, less healthy options.

• Health Outcomes: This dietary shift increases the risk of malnutrition, particularly in children, and contributes to a rise in chronic diet-related conditions such as heart disease, type 2 diabetes, and cancer.
• Mental Health: A growing body of evidence links food insecurity and poor diets with adverse mental health outcomes.
• Exacerbating Inequality: As Maximillian Kotz, the study’s lead author, noted, these impacts disproportionately harm low-income families, widening the gap between the affluent and the poor and undermining efforts to reduce inequality.

The Imperative for SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals)

Expert Analysis and the Urgency for Climate Action

The report serves as a stark reminder of the consequences of failing to meet the targets of SDG 13. The world has already warmed by approximately 1.3°C, and current policies place it on a trajectory toward 3°C of warming, a level the UN describes as ‘debilitating’.

• Amber Sawyer of the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) highlighted that British farmers are experiencing climate change as a daily reality, yo-yoing between extreme heat and extreme rain, which has devastated harvests and added significantly to household food bills.
• Maximillian Kotz stated, “Until we get to net-zero emissions, extreme weather will only get worse, and it’s already damaging crops and pushing up the price of food all over the world.”

A Call for Collaborative Solutions

Addressing this complex, interconnected crisis requires robust global cooperation, the cornerstone of SDG 17. The research itself was a collaborative effort by a multi-disciplinary team from institutions including BSC, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and the European Central Bank. The upcoming UN Food Systems Summit Stocktake, co-hosted by the climate-impacted nations of Ethiopia and Italy, presents a critical opportunity for world leaders to strengthen partnerships and take decisive action to build resilient and sustainable food systems in the face of a worsening climate crisis.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

1. SDG 2: Zero Hunger

   • The article’s central theme is the impact of extreme weather on food production and prices. It explicitly discusses how price shocks for staple foods like potatoes, vegetables, maize, and rice affect food affordability, leading to food insecurity and potential malnutrition, especially for low-income households. This directly relates to the goal of ending hunger and ensuring access to sufficient, nutritious food.

2. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • The article identifies climate change as the primary driver of the extreme weather events (heat, drought, heavy precipitation) causing the food price shocks. It repeatedly cites scientific studies linking these events to human-induced climate change and mentions the need to reach “net-zero emissions,” which is a core component of climate action.

3. SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

   • The article connects food price increases to negative health outcomes. It states that when nutritious foods become unaffordable, people may switch to cheaper, less healthy options, increasing the risk of “malnutrition,” “coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes and many cancers.” It also notes a link between food insecurity and poor mental health.

4. SDG 1: No Poverty

   • The article highlights that low-income households are disproportionately affected by rising food prices. It notes that these households “are likely to cut back on nutritious foods like fruit and vegetables because they can’t afford them,” pushing them further into vulnerability and making it harder to escape poverty. The added cost to household food bills (£360 in the UK) is a direct economic burden on the poor.

5. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   • The article touches on broader economic stability by mentioning that “Central bank mandates for controlling inflation may become harder to deliver as increasingly extreme weather makes food prices more volatile.” This volatility in global and domestic markets threatens stable economic growth.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Target 2.1: End hunger and ensure access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food

   • The article demonstrates threats to this target by showing how climate-induced price spikes for staple foods in numerous countries (UK, US, Ethiopia, India) make it difficult for people, especially “low-income households,” to afford and access nutritious food like fruits and vegetables.

2. Target 2.4: Ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices

   • The article directly addresses this target by describing how agricultural systems are failing to withstand climate shocks. Examples include the “third-worst arable harvest on record” in the UK due to extreme rain, crop failures in California from drought, and damaged cocoa production in West Africa from heatwaves. This highlights a lack of resilience in current agricultural practices.

3. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters

   • The entire article serves as an inventory of failures to meet this target. It details how countries across the globe are suffering severe economic and social consequences (food price shocks, crop failures) from climate-related hazards like droughts, floods, and heatwaves, indicating insufficient resilience and adaptive capacity.

4. Target 3.4: Reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases and promote mental health

   • The article links the consequences of food price shocks to this target by explaining that resulting poor diets are “linked to a range of health conditions like cancer, diabetes and heart disease.” It also mentions the “growing body of evidence connecting food insecurity and poor diets with mental health outcomes.”

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. Indicator of Food Price Anomalies (Proxy for official indicator 2.c.1)

   • The article is replete with data points that serve as direct examples of this indicator. It quantifies numerous food price spikes, such as “potato prices increased 22%,” “vegetable prices increased 80%,” “global cocoa prices were almost 300% (280%) higher,” and “olive oil of 50% year-on-year.” These figures measure the volatility and anomalies in food prices.

2. Agricultural Productivity/Yields

   • The article implies this indicator by discussing crop failures and harvest levels. The mention of the “third-worst arable harvest on record” and “England its second worst” provides a clear, measurable data point on the negative impact on agricultural productivity.

3. Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather Events

   • This is a key indicator for climate impact. The article provides specific examples, such as the “worst [drought] in 40 years” in the Horn of Africa, the UK’s 40°C temperature for the first time, and monsoon rains being “547% above average” in Pakistan. It also quantifies the increased likelihood due to climate change (e.g., “10 times more likely”).

4. Economic Impact on Households

   • The article provides a specific monetary value for this indicator, stating that in the UK, “climate change added £360 to the average household food bill across 2022 and 2023 alone.” This measures the direct financial burden of climate impacts on consumers.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: hpcwire.com