Report on Climate Variability, Adaptation Strategies, and Staple Crop Productivity in Sidama, Ethiopia: A Sustainable Development Goals Perspective

Executive Summary

This report details a study conducted in the Hawassa Zuria and Boricha districts of Sidama, Ethiopia, examining the impacts of climate variability and adaptation strategies on the productivity of staple crops (Enset, maize, and Haricot beans). The findings are framed within the context of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 13 (Climate Action), and SDG 1 (No Poverty). The analysis reveals that climate factors explain 54% of Enset and 77% of maize yield variability, underscoring the severe threat climate change poses to regional food security. Rainfall variation is positively correlated with Enset and maize yields, while rising minimum temperatures negatively impact maize production. Critically, the adoption of climate-smart adaptation strategies—such as irrigation, agroforestry, and improved crop varieties—demonstrates a significant positive impact on crop yields. The adoption of these strategies is influenced by socioeconomic factors including access to climate information, extension services, and credit, highlighting the importance of institutional support in achieving SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals). Recommendations focus on promoting sustainable agricultural practices, enhancing access to climate information, and strengthening institutional support to build resilience and advance the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Introduction: Aligning Agricultural Resilience with Sustainable Development Goals

The Global and Regional Context: Climate Change and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger)

Climate change represents a primary obstacle to achieving global environmental stability and food security. In Sub-Saharan Africa, where approximately 95% of food production is rain-fed, the agricultural sector is exceptionally vulnerable. This vulnerability directly threatens the achievement of SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), as climate variability leads to significant yield reductions for staple crops like maize, millet, and sorghum. The increasing frequency of droughts and erratic rainfall patterns undermines agricultural productivity, jeopardizing the livelihoods of millions and exacerbating food insecurity.

The Ethiopian Context: Agriculture, Livelihoods, and Climate Vulnerability

In Ethiopia, agriculture is the backbone of the economy, contributing significantly to GDP and employment. However, the sector’s high dependence on rainfall makes it susceptible to climate change, posing a direct threat to SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). Smallholder farmers in regions like Sidama face recurrent droughts, unpredictable rainfall, and crop losses, which are intensified by climate change. The Hawassa Zuria and Boricha districts are particularly vulnerable, necessitating urgent, localized adaptation strategies to protect livelihoods and ensure sustainable development.

Study Rationale: Addressing Gaps in Localized Climate Action (SDG 13)

While previous studies have examined general climate trends in Ethiopia, a critical gap exists in understanding the specific impacts of climate variability on key staple crops at a local level. This study addresses this gap by providing a detailed analysis of Enset, maize, and haricot bean productivity in Sidama. By employing robust econometric models, this research aims to identify effective, context-specific adaptation strategies, thereby providing actionable evidence for policymakers to advance SDG 13 (Climate Action) and build a resilient agricultural sector capable of supporting long-term food security.

Key Findings: Climate Variability, Crop Productivity, and Adaptation

Impact of Climate Variability on Staple Crops

The analysis confirms a significant relationship between climate variables and the productivity of staple food crops, which is central to achieving SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). The findings highlight the urgent need for climate-resilient agriculture as a core component of SDG 13 (Climate Action).

• Rainfall: Annual rainfall shows a strong positive correlation with Enset (r = 0.667) and maize (r = 0.654) yields, emphasizing the critical role of moisture availability.
• Temperature: Rising minimum temperatures have a significant negative impact on maize yields, particularly during the Belg (r = -0.547) and Kiremt (r = -0.508) seasons. Haricot beans are also negatively affected by higher temperatures.
• Yield Variability: Climate factors account for a substantial portion of yield variability, explaining 54% for Enset and up to 77% for maize during the Kiremt season.

Efficacy of Adaptation Strategies on Crop Yields

The adoption of specific adaptation strategies significantly enhances crop productivity, demonstrating viable pathways to bolster food security and promote sustainable land use, in line with SDG 15 (Life on Land).

• Irrigation and Water Conservation: The use of irrigation and water conservation techniques significantly increases yields for all three staple crops, highlighting the importance of sustainable water management for SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation).
• Agroforestry: Integrating trees into farming systems leads to considerable yield gains, especially for Enset (+2.75 units) and Haricot beans (+1.57 units), contributing to both SDG 13 and SDG 15.
• Improved Crop Varieties: The use of improved maize and Haricot bean varieties significantly increases productivity, showcasing the value of agricultural innovation.
• Fertilizer and Manure: The application of fertilizer and manure boosts Enset and maize yields, underscoring the need for improved soil fertility management.

Determinants of Adopting Climate-Smart Practices

The decision to adopt adaptation strategies is influenced by a range of socioeconomic and institutional factors. Addressing these determinants is crucial for fostering widespread climate action and achieving SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

• Agroecological Zone: Farmers in the semi-arid (Kolla) zone are more likely to adopt irrigation and water conservation.
• Gender: Male-headed households are more likely to adopt water conservation, pointing to a need for gender-inclusive policies to achieve SDG 5 (Gender Equality).
• Access to Information and Services: Access to climate information, agricultural extension services, and credit are significant positive drivers for adopting strategies like agroforestry and improved crop varieties.
• Market Access: Proximity to markets is a key enabler for adopting various strategies, as greater distance negatively impacts adoption rates.
• Livestock Ownership: Livestock ownership is positively associated with the adoption of intercropping and manure use, indicating the potential for integrated crop-livestock systems.

Conclusion and Policy Recommendations for Achieving the SDGs

This study confirms that climate variability poses a significant threat to staple crop production and food security in Sidama, Ethiopia. However, it also demonstrates that targeted adaptation strategies can effectively mitigate these impacts and enhance agricultural resilience. To accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, the following policy actions are recommended:

1. Promote Sustainable Water Management: Invest in and promote small-scale irrigation, rainwater harvesting, and water conservation techniques to ensure consistent water availability, directly supporting SDG 6 and enhancing resilience for SDG 2.
2. Strengthen Institutional Support and Partnerships: Enhance access to climate information, agricultural extension services, and credit to empower farmers to adopt climate-smart practices. This fosters SDG 17 and ensures that support systems, especially for women and vulnerable farmers (SDG 5), are robust.
3. Disseminate Climate-Resilient Crop Varieties: Prioritize the development and distribution of drought-tolerant and heat-resistant varieties of Enset, maize, and Haricot beans to safeguard crop yields against climate shocks, a key action for SDG 13.
4. Integrate Sustainable Land Management Practices: Encourage the adoption of agroforestry, intercropping, and sustainable soil fertility management to improve ecosystem health, sequester carbon, and boost productivity, contributing to SDG 15 and SDG 13.
5. Improve Market Access and Infrastructure: Invest in rural infrastructure to reduce market distances, enabling farmers to access necessary inputs and sell their produce, which is fundamental for improving livelihoods and achieving SDG 1 and SDG 8.

Relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 1: No Poverty

• The article connects to SDG 1 by focusing on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Ethiopia, a group highly vulnerable to poverty. It examines how climate variability threatens their primary source of income and sustenance—agriculture. By analyzing adaptation strategies, the study seeks ways to build the resilience of these poor and vulnerable communities against climate-related shocks, directly addressing the goal of reducing their exposure to economic and environmental risks.

SDG 2: Zero Hunger

• This is a central theme of the article. It directly investigates the impact of climate variability on the productivity of staple food crops (Enset, maize, Haricot beans), which are critical for food security in the Sidama region. The study’s recommendations aim to enhance crop yields, ensure sustainable food production, and build resilience in the agricultural sector to end hunger and achieve food security.

SDG 5: Gender Equality

• The article touches upon SDG 5 by acknowledging gender as a key socioeconomic factor influencing the adoption of climate adaptation strategies. It notes a significant gender imbalance in the survey respondents (92.6% male) and mentions that “male-headed households more likely to adopt” certain strategies, highlighting disparities in resource control and decision-making power that can hinder women’s ability to adapt to climate change. The conclusion calls for “gender-inclusive policies” to ensure equitable access to resources.

SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

• SDG 6 is relevant through the article’s emphasis on water management as a critical adaptation strategy. It analyzes the impact of “irrigation” and “water conservation” techniques (like rainwater harvesting and ponds) on crop productivity. The findings show that these practices significantly boost yields, underscoring the importance of increasing water-use efficiency and managing water resources sustainably to combat water scarcity in agriculture.

SDG 13: Climate Action

• The entire study is framed around SDG 13. It examines the “impacts of climate variability” (rising temperatures, erratic rainfall) on a local community and analyzes the effectiveness of various “adaptation strategies” to combat these effects. The research aims to strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards. It also highlights the importance of access to climate information and extension services, which contributes to improving education and institutional capacity for climate adaptation.

SDG 15: Life on Land

• The article relates to SDG 15 by promoting sustainable agricultural practices that improve land and soil quality. It evaluates the positive impacts of “agroforestry,” “intercropping,” and the use of “animal manure or fertilizer” on crop yields. These practices help combat land degradation, enhance biodiversity, and promote the sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, which are crucial for maintaining agricultural productivity.

Specific SDG Targets

SDG 1: No Poverty

• Target 1.5: By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters.
  • The article directly addresses this target by studying how smallholder farmers in vulnerable districts can build resilience. It analyzes adaptation strategies like irrigation, improved crop varieties, and water conservation, which are designed to reduce the negative impacts of climate variability (droughts, erratic rainfall) on their livelihoods and food security.

SDG 2: Zero Hunger

• Target 2.3: By 2030, double the agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers, in particular women, indigenous peoples, family farmers, pastoralists and fishers, including through secure and equal access to land, other productive resources and inputs, knowledge, financial services and markets.
  • The study’s core focus is on increasing the “staple crop productivity” of smallholder farmers. It analyzes factors that boost yields, such as access to credit, extension services, and markets, directly aligning with the target’s call for improved access to resources and knowledge.
• Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality.
  • The article evaluates resilient agricultural practices like “agroforestry,” “intercropping,” “water conservation,” and the use of “manure,” which are shown to significantly enhance crop yields. These practices contribute to sustainable food production systems that are adaptive to climate change.

SDG 5: Gender Equality

• Target 5.a: Undertake reforms to give women equal rights to economic resources, as well as access to ownership and control over land and other forms of property, financial services, inheritance and natural resources, in accordance with national laws.
  • The article implies a need for this target by finding that “male-headed households more likely to adopt” water conservation strategies, suggesting unequal access to resources or decision-making power. The conclusion explicitly recommends “gender-inclusive policies” to address these constraints and ensure equitable access to opportunities for women in agriculture.

SDG 13: Climate Action

• Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
  • This is the central focus of the paper. The entire study is an analysis of the “adaptation strategies” (e.g., irrigation, agroforestry, improved crop varieties) employed by farmers to cope with climate variability and build resilience against hazards like drought and erratic rainfall.
• Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning.
  • The article highlights that “Access to climate information” and “Access to agricultural extension services” are significant determinants in the adoption of adaptation strategies. This directly points to the need for improved institutional capacity and knowledge dissemination to help farmers adapt.

Implied and Mentioned Indicators

Agricultural Productivity and Yield Data

• The article provides quantitative data on crop yields, which serve as direct indicators for measuring progress towards targets like 2.3 and 2.4.
  • Specific Mention: The study measures yields for Enset, maize, and Haricot beans. For instance, it reports “average annual yield” differences between users and non-users of adaptation strategies (Table 7) and provides descriptive statistics like “Maize production… has a high average of 9.8 Quintals” (Table 6). These figures can be used to track changes in agricultural productivity.

Adoption Rates of Adaptation Strategies

• The percentage or likelihood of farmers adopting specific climate-resilient practices is a key indicator for measuring adaptive capacity (Target 13.1) and the implementation of sustainable agriculture (Target 2.4).
  • Specific Mention: The study uses a Multinomial Logit (MNL) model to analyze the “determinants of farmers’ adoption of various adaptation mechanisms,” including irrigation, agroforestry, improved crop varieties, and water conservation. The marginal effects shown in Table 9 quantify the probability of adopting these strategies based on different factors.

Access to Information and Institutional Support

• The level of access to climate information and support services is an indicator for Target 13.3 (improving human and institutional capacity).
  • Specific Mention: The article analyzes “Access to climate information” and “Access to agricultural extension services” as variables influencing farmers’ decisions. It finds that these factors “significantly increase the likelihood of adopting improved crop varieties,” providing a measurable link between institutional support and adaptive action.

Socioeconomic and Gender-Disaggregated Data

• Data on factors like gender, education, and access to credit serve as indicators for understanding the underlying drivers and barriers to sustainable development, relevant to targets like 5.a and 2.3.
  • Specific Mention: The study analyzes how “Sex,” “Educational status,” and “Access to credit” influence the adoption of adaptation strategies. The finding that “male-headed households more likely to adopt water conservation” is a gender-disaggregated indicator highlighting inequality in adaptation.

Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: nature.com