Report on the UK Prison Capacity Crisis and its Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

An independent review has revealed that the criminal justice system in England and Wales narrowly avoided collapse on multiple occasions between 2022 and 2024 due to a severe prison capacity crisis. The government’s reliance on short-term, emergency measures highlights systemic failures that directly contravene the principles of Sustainable Development Goal 16 (SDG 16): Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions. This report details the findings of the review, analyzing the events and responses through the lens of the SDGs and outlining the need for systemic reform to build effective, accountable, and resilient justice institutions.

The Brink of Collapse: A Timeline of the Crisis

The period leading up to and during the crisis was marked by escalating pressure on the prison estate, culminating in emergency actions that challenged the foundations of the justice system and its alignment with SDG 16.3 (Promote the rule of law).

1. October 12, 2023: Government officials assessed the criminal justice system to be “within three days of meltdown.”
2. October 16, 2023: With the prison population at 88,000 and only 183 spaces remaining in the adult male estate, the government announced the “end-of-custody supervised licence” scheme, authorizing the early release of selected prisoners.
3. March 2024: The early release scheme was extended, allowing prisoners to be released up to five weeks early.
4. May 2024: The scheme was extended further, permitting releases up to ten weeks before the scheduled date.
5. May-June 2024: Following the dissolution of Parliament, emergency COBR meetings were held to plan for a potential collapse of the criminal justice system during the election period, with considerations given to using the Civil Contingencies Act 2004.

Independent Review Findings: A Failure of SDG 16

The independent review, led by Dame Anne Owers, concluded that the crisis was not an unforeseen event but a systemic failure. The findings underscore a significant departure from the UK’s commitment to SDG 16, particularly its targets on effective and transparent institutions.

Challenges to SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

• Erosion of Institutional Integrity (SDG 16.6): The review criticizes the use of a power intended for compassionate individual release to manage systemic overcrowding. This “questionable” application of law to release over 13,000 inmates demonstrates a failure to develop effective and transparent institutions, relying instead on “last-minute, short-term fixes.”
• Undermining the Rule of Law (SDG 16.3): The repeated near-collapses and the need for emergency measures indicate that the state’s ability to administer justice and maintain the rule of law was severely compromised. Officials’ frustration at the “reluctance to accept and then act on the well-documented and imminent crisis” points to a governance failure that threatens public trust in the justice system.
• Lack of Long-Term, Sustainable Solutions: The report states the problem is “systemic” and “not yet solved.” This reactive approach is contrary to the sustainable, preventative principles of the SDGs. It highlights a failure to address the root causes of prison overcrowding, which are intrinsically linked to broader goals such as SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being), and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

Stakeholder Responses and Future Outlook

Responses to the review acknowledge the severity of the crisis while offering different perspectives on the path toward achieving a sustainable and effective justice system in line with SDG 16.

Government and Civil Society Perspectives

• The Justice Secretary: The current government acknowledged the “disgraceful” management by the previous administration and committed to “fixing our prisons, for good” by building 14,000 new cells by 2031 and reforming sentencing. This focuses on infrastructure as a key component of strengthening justice institutions (SDG 16).
• The Howard League for Penal Reform: The advocacy group argued that building more prisons is not a sustainable solution. It called for investment in probation and community services to “tackle some of the underlying causes of offending.” This approach aligns more closely with a holistic interpretation of the SDGs, linking justice outcomes (SDG 16) with investment in community well-being and inequality reduction (SDG 10, SDG 11).

Conclusion: A Call for Systemic Reform Aligned with the SDGs

The independent review serves as a stark warning. The UK’s criminal justice system has been operating on the brink of failure, a situation incompatible with the nation’s commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals. Dame Owers’ conclusion that the crisis is “systemic” demands a fundamental shift from reactive crisis management to proactive, preventative strategies. Achieving SDG 16 requires building resilient, transparent, and accountable justice institutions. This involves not only managing prison capacity but also investing in community-based solutions that address the root causes of crime, thereby ensuring peace and justice for all on a sustainable basis.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The primary SDG addressed in the article is:

• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions. This goal is central to the article’s discussion, which revolves around a crisis in the criminal justice system, the near-collapse of prisons due to overcrowding, and the effectiveness and accountability of government institutions responsible for justice and penal reform. The article details the struggles of the prison system, the use of emergency measures, and the debate over long-term solutions, all of which fall under the mandate of building and maintaining strong, effective, and accountable justice institutions.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the text, the following specific targets of SDG 16 are relevant:

1. Target 16.3: Promote the rule of law at the national and international levels and ensure equal access to justice for all.
   • The article highlights a system that was “within three days of meltdown” and on the “brink of collapse.” This situation directly threatens the rule of law, as the state’s ability to administer justice and manage its prison system was severely compromised. The use of a power designed for “compassionate grounds” to manage systemic overcrowding was described as “questionable,” indicating a strain on established legal norms.
2. Target 16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels.
   • The article critiques the government’s handling of the crisis, describing the response as “last-minute, short-term fixes rather than long-term solutions.” Dame Anne Owers’s report notes frustration at the “reluctance to accept and then act on the well-documented and imminent crisis,” pointing to a failure of institutional effectiveness. The new justice secretary’s accusation that the previous government released prisoners “under a veil of secrecy” speaks to a lack of transparency.
3. Target 16.a: Strengthen relevant national institutions… for building capacity… to… combat… crime.
   • The core issue is a lack of prison capacity. The article explicitly discusses the need to build capacity, contrasting the “less than 500 cells” added over 14 years with the current government’s plan for “14,000 by 2031.” Furthermore, the Howard League for Penal Reform calls for strengthening institutions outside of prisons by advocating for “sufficient investment outside prison — both in probation and in other community services” to tackle the causes of offending, which is a form of capacity building for the entire justice system.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article mentions several quantitative and qualitative indicators that can be used to measure progress:

• For Target 16.3 (Promote the rule of law):
  • Prison population size: The article states the prison population of England and Wales had reached “88,000.” This number serves as a direct indicator of the pressure on the justice system.
  • Prison operational capacity: The fact that there were “only 183 spaces left in the adult male estate” is a critical indicator of the system’s inability to function properly.
  • Number of prisoners on early release schemes: The article mentions that “more than 13,000 inmates were eventually let out early” under the emergency scheme, indicating the scale of the measures needed to prevent collapse.
• For Target 16.6 (Develop effective institutions):
  • Frequency of emergency meetings: The mention of officials holding a “COBR meeting” to discuss the potential collapse of the criminal justice system is a qualitative indicator of institutional failure and crisis-level management.
  • Reliance on short-term vs. long-term policies: The report’s conclusion that the response has been “last-minute, short-term fixes” is an indicator of ineffective strategic planning within the justice institutions.
• For Target 16.a (Strengthen national institutions):
  • Rate of prison construction: The article provides concrete numbers that serve as an indicator of capacity building. It contrasts the “less than 500 cells” built over 14 years with the “2,400 new cells” opened recently and the goal of “14,000 by 2031.”
  • Investment in community and probation services: The call from the Howard League for Penal Reform to “start investing in services that can cut crime in the community” implies that the level of funding for these non-custodial services is a key indicator of a balanced and strengthened justice system.

4. Summary of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: rozenberg.substack.com