Research Group: U.S. Exits Coal by 2040 as Solar, Nuclear, Natural Gas Surge – POWER Magazine

U.S. Energy Sector Transformation: A Forecast in Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals

A recent outlook published by Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) projects a significant transformation of the United States power generation landscape by 2050. The report outlines a strategic shift away from fossil fuels toward cleaner energy sources, a trajectory that strongly supports the achievement of several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 13 (Climate Action).

Projected Phases of the U.S. Energy Transition

The analysis forecasts a 57% increase in installed U.S. power capacity by 2050, structured across three distinct eras. This phased approach is critical for building resilient infrastructure (SDG 9) while ensuring a stable energy supply.

1. Rapid Solar Energy Growth (2025–2035): This initial phase will be characterized by a surge in solar installations, driven by favorable economics and demand for Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). This directly advances targets under SDG 7 by increasing the share of renewable energy in the national mix.
2. Coal Replacement (2035–2040): The report projects a complete phase-out of coal-fired power by 2040. This pivotal action is a direct contribution to SDG 13, as it will drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The capacity will be replaced by a combination of natural gas and nuclear power, balancing grid stability with climate objectives.
3. Steady Nuclear Expansion (2040–2050): The long-term vision involves sustained growth in nuclear power, focusing on innovation through Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). This supports SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) by fostering advanced, low-carbon technologies for baseload power generation.

Key Findings and Contributions to SDGs

The report’s key takeaways highlight a multi-faceted approach to creating a sustainable energy future, aligning with goals for climate, industry, and communities.

• Commitment to SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy): The forecast indicates that renewable energy installations will peak around 2028 but remain competitive, ensuring a continuous increase in the share of clean energy.
• Advancing SDG 13 (Climate Action): The complete retirement of the U.S. coal fleet by 2040 represents a monumental step in mitigating climate change. This move is consistent with global initiatives like the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), which unites nations in a commitment to transition away from coal.
• Supporting SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure): The transition necessitates significant infrastructural investment. The report emphasizes the crucial role of battery storage and gas peaker plants for grid reliability and the development of SMRs as a key industrial innovation for future energy security.
• Fostering SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth): As noted by international partners in the PPCA, the shift from coal to clean power is expected to create thousands of jobs in future-focused industries, boosting economic competitiveness and promoting sustainable growth.

Global Context and Corroborating Analysis

EIR’s findings are consistent with global energy analyses. A report from Bloomberg NEF (BNEF) similarly forecasts unprecedented adoption of renewable energy, projecting that the global share of fossil fuels in the power system will drop from 58% in 2024 to 25% by 2050. This global consensus underscores the feasibility and momentum of the energy transition. The commitment of over 60 countries to the Powering Past Coal Alliance further solidifies this trend, demonstrating a collective international effort to achieve SDG 7 and SDG 13.

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article discusses the transition of the U.S. power sector, which directly connects to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The primary themes of shifting from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources, technological innovation, and climate action are central to the following SDGs:

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

  This is the most prominent SDG in the article. The entire text focuses on the future of energy generation, detailing the shift from coal to cleaner sources like solar, wind, natural gas, and nuclear power. It discusses increasing power capacity and the economics of different energy technologies, which are central to ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all.

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  The article’s emphasis on phasing out coal-fired power plants directly addresses a key strategy for combating climate change. The forecast that “all coal generation will be phased out by 2040” and the mention of the “Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA)” highlight concrete actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector.

• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

  The discussion on building a new energy infrastructure with advanced technologies connects to this goal. The article mentions significant research and development (R&D) and investment in new technologies like small modular reactors (SMRs), battery storage, and smart home-energy ecosystems. This represents the upgrading of infrastructure and the promotion of inclusive and sustainable industrialization driven by innovation.

• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

  The transition to a clean energy economy is linked to economic opportunities. The article quotes a South Korean minister stating that the shift from coal will “boost the competitiveness of our businesses, and create thousands of jobs in the industries of the future,” which aligns with promoting sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth and productive employment.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the article’s discussion of the energy transition, several specific SDG targets can be identified:

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

  • Target 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. The article directly supports this by forecasting “rapid solar energy growth” and noting that “generation from renewables globally rises 84% between now and 2030.”
  • Target 7.a: By 2030, enhance international cooperation to facilitate access to clean energy research and technology… and promote investment in energy infrastructure and clean energy technology. The article highlights this through its discussion of ongoing investments in nuclear technology, particularly SMRs, which require “significant R&D, licensing, and demonstration before commercial rollout.”

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning. The forecast of a complete phase-out of U.S. coal by 2040, driven by “regulatory and societal trends,” and the mention of the U.S. being part of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) demonstrate the integration of climate goals into national energy strategy.

• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

  • Target 9.4: By 2030, upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable… and greater adoption of clean and environmentally sound technologies. The entire article is about this process: retiring the “aging” coal fleet and replacing it with modern infrastructure based on solar, natural gas, nuclear (SMRs), and battery storage to ensure grid reliability and sustainability.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

The article provides several quantitative and qualitative indicators that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets:

• For SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy)

  • Indicator for Target 7.2: Share of renewable energy in power generation capacity. The article provides specific forecasts, such as the construction of “6.9 TW of solar” and “2.6 TW of wind” globally by 2035. It also projects a 57% increase in total installed U.S. power capacity by 2050, with solar, wind, and nuclear making up the new additions.

• For SDG 13 (Climate Action)

  • Indicator for Target 13.2: Reduction in coal-fired generation capacity. The article provides a clear, measurable indicator by stating the expectation that “U.S. coal-fired power will be fully retired by 2040.” It also mentions a BNEF forecast that “global coal consumption falls 25% over the next decade.”

• For SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure)

  • Indicator for Target 9.4: Investment in clean energy infrastructure and R&D. While not giving a total dollar amount, the article implies this indicator by mentioning that “today’s funding is essential to enable the industry’s transition” for nuclear power and that investments are “laying the foundation for SMR technology to scale in the 2040s.”

• For SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth)

  • Implied Indicator for SDG 8: Number of jobs created in the clean energy sector. The article explicitly mentions the goal to “create thousands of jobs in the industries of the future” as a direct result of the clean energy transition.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: powermag.com