Executive Summary: Assessing Wildfire Danger in Southwestern France in the Context of the Sustainable Development Goals

This report assesses the evolution of summer wildfire danger in Southwestern France under various climate change scenarios, highlighting the profound implications for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of fire-prone weather. Using the Fire Weather Index (FWI) for daily danger and a complementary seasonal index (SM6-T3-VPD3) for prolonged hot and dry conditions, this analysis projects a significant escalation in risk. Under the highest emission scenario (RCP8.5), the probability of extreme compound hot and dry events in August is projected to increase from 0.04 to 0.49 during the 21st century. Even under the most optimistic low-emission scenario (RCP2.6), the likelihood increases from 0.03 to 0.15. These findings underscore a critical threat to climate action (SDG 13), life on land (SDG 15), sustainable communities (SDG 11), and human health (SDG 3). The report concludes that a dual strategy of aggressive climate change mitigation and robust, immediate adaptation is essential to safeguard development progress against the growing danger of wildfires.

Introduction: Wildfires as a Threat to Sustainable Development

The Global Context of Wildfire Impacts on SDGs

Extreme wildfires represent a significant and escalating challenge to global sustainability, directly undermining progress across multiple Sustainable Development Goals. These events, characterized by their intensity and resistance to suppression, inflict severe and interconnected consequences:

• SDG 15 (Life on Land): Wildfires cause catastrophic damage to terrestrial ecosystems, leading to massive deforestation, biodiversity loss, and potential species extinction. The 2019-2020 Australian “Black Summer” fires, for instance, are estimated to have killed or displaced three billion animals and emitted up to 830 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, further degrading ecosystems.
• SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities): Communities, particularly at the wildland-urban interface (WUI), face direct threats. The 2023 Canadian wildfires led to the evacuation of 234,000 people, while the 2009 “Black Saturday” fires in Australia destroyed over 2,000 homes, demonstrating the vulnerability of human settlements.
• SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being): Wildfires result in direct fatalities, as seen in the 2017 Portugal and 2018 Greece fires, and cause significant air pollution from smoke, which has widespread impacts on respiratory and cardiovascular health.
• SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth): The economic toll is substantial, encompassing suppression costs, destruction of infrastructure, and damage to key industries like timber and tourism. In the United States, wildfire suppression costs surged from $200 million in 1994 to approximately $4.79 billion in 2024.
• SDG 13 (Climate Action): Climate change is a primary driver, increasing the frequency of fire-prone weather. Attribution studies consistently link anthropogenic climate change to a higher likelihood of extreme wildfire seasons globally. This creates a dangerous feedback loop, as large fires release vast quantities of carbon, exacerbating climate change.

Focus Area: Southwestern France and its Vulnerabilities

This report focuses on Southwestern France, a region that includes the Landes Forest, a critical hub for the European timber industry and an area of significant ecological and economic value. The region is susceptible to wildfires, with the peak season in July and August accounting for 78.6% of the total area burned between 2006 and 2024. The devastating 2022 season, which burned 16 times the recent average, highlighted the region’s vulnerability to compound climate events—in that case, a prolonged drought combined with successive heatwaves. This vulnerability directly threatens local progress towards:

1. SDG 15 (Life on Land): The Landes Forest, a managed maritime pine landscape, is central to the regional ecosystem and economy.
2. SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities): The region’s high tourist activity during summer months increases ignition risk and complicates emergency response, jeopardizing community safety.
3. SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth): The timber industry and tourism sector are highly exposed to wildfire risk.

This study aims to project the evolution of wildfire danger in this key region, providing critical information for developing adaptation strategies aligned with the SDGs.

Methodology for Assessing Climate-Driven Wildfire Danger

Analytical Framework and Indices

To provide a comprehensive assessment of wildfire danger, this study employs a dual-index approach that captures both short-term weather anomalies and long-term climate anomalies, which are the primary controls on the extent of burnt areas.

• Fire Weather Index (FWI): A widely used operational index that assesses daily fire danger based on meteorological inputs (temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation). It reflects the potential for fire spread and intensity should an ignition occur. This study uses FWI projections to analyze the changing frequency of extreme daily fire-weather conditions.
• Seasonal Compound Index (SM6-T3-VPD3): A specialized index developed to capture the prolonged hot and dry conditions that lead to large-scale fires, such as those seen in Southwestern France in 2022. It integrates climate variables over longer timescales to reflect cumulative stress on vegetation and soil. The index combines:
  • SM6: Surface soil moisture integrated over the preceding 6 months.
  • T3: Surface air temperature integrated over the preceding 3 months.
  • VPD3: Vapour Pressure Deficit integrated over the preceding 3 months.

This complementary approach allows for a robust analysis of how both daily fire risk and the underlying seasonal conditions that enable catastrophic fire seasons will evolve, providing a more complete picture for risk management and SDG-aligned planning.

Climate Scenarios and Data Sources

The analysis is based on state-of-the-art climate model projections to assess future risks under different global emissions pathways, which is central to informing strategies for SDG 13 (Climate Action).

1. Data for Seasonal Index (SM6-T3-VPD3): Projections are derived from five climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are analyzed:
   • SSP1-2.6: A low-emission scenario aligned with the Paris Agreement goal of keeping warming below 2°C.
   • SSP2-4.5: An intermediate, “business-as-usual” scenario.
   • SSP5-8.5: A high-emission, fossil-fuel-intensive development scenario.
2. Data for Fire Weather Index (FWI): Projections are sourced from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), based on EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations. The analysis uses corresponding Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5.

Reference extreme events are defined based on a historical baseline period (1991–2020), and their projected frequency is analyzed for the short-term (2021-2050), medium-term (2046-2075), and long-term (2071-2100).

Projected Increase in Wildfire Danger and Implications for SDGs

Daily Fire Danger Projections (FWI)

Analysis of the FWI reveals a significant increase in the frequency of days with extreme fire-weather, posing a direct threat to community safety (SDG 11) and terrestrial ecosystems (SDG 15). The projections show:

• Under the intermediate RCP4.5 scenario, the likelihood of an extreme fire-weather day (90th percentile event) in August is projected to more than double by the end of the century, increasing from 11% to 23%.
• The choice of emissions pathway profoundly impacts future risk. Under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario, the frequency of these extreme days in August increases to 29%.
• Conversely, the low-emission RCP2.6 scenario shows a potential stabilization or slight decrease in daily fire danger, demonstrating the direct benefits of aggressive mitigation efforts for SDG 13 (Climate Action).

Seasonal Compound Danger Projections (SM6-T3-VPD3)

The analysis of prolonged hot and dry conditions, which drive the most destructive fire seasons, shows an even more alarming trend. These conditions directly threaten water security, agriculture, and forest health, impacting SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), and SDG 15 (Life on Land).

• Intermediate Scenario (SSP2-4.5): A rare compound hot and dry event (defined by the 10th percentile of soil moisture and 90th percentile of temperature/VPD) that had a 3% chance of occurring in August during the reference period is projected to have a 26% chance by 2071-2100. A moderately extreme event (25th/75th percentiles) will become the new normal, with its probability rising from 12% to 51%.
• High-Emission Scenario (SSP5-8.5): The probability of an extreme compound event in August skyrockets from 4% to 49%. This implies that by the end of the century, nearly every other summer could be as hot and dry as the most extreme seasons of the past.
• Low-Emission Scenario (SSP1-2.6): Even with strong climate action, the risk of extreme seasonal conditions increases significantly, with the probability rising from 3% to 15%. This highlights that adaptation is not optional and must be pursued alongside mitigation.

Comparative Analysis of Projections

The increase in risk is more pronounced for long-term, seasonal compound events than for daily fire-weather anomalies. This suggests that while the number of dangerous days will increase, the primary threat comes from the growing likelihood of entire seasons being characterized by extreme drought and heat. Such conditions create a landscape that is primed for catastrophic fires, amplifying the risk to life, property, and ecosystems. The findings from both indices confirm that without immediate and decisive action on SDG 13, achieving other goals related to environmental stability, economic prosperity, and human well-being will become increasingly difficult.

Discussion: Aligning Wildfire Management with the 2030 Agenda

Urgent Need for Climate Action (SDG 13)

The results present a clear and stark choice. The divergence in wildfire danger between the low-emission (SSP1-2.6/RCP2.6) and high-emission (SSP5-8.5/RCP8.5) scenarios demonstrates that mitigating greenhouse gas emissions is the most effective long-term strategy to limit the escalation of fire risk. Adhering to a low-emission pathway directly supports the targets of SDG 13 and is fundamental to protecting communities and ecosystems. However, the analysis also shows that a significant increase in danger is already locked in, even under the most optimistic scenarios, necessitating immediate and robust adaptation measures.

Protecting Life on Land and Human Well-being (SDG 15, SDG 3, SDG 11)

The projected increase in fire danger poses a severe threat to the well-being of both ecosystems and human populations. An event like the 2022 wildfire season in Southwestern France, which had an estimated 5% likelihood in the past, could have a probability exceeding 50% under an intermediate climate scenario by the end of the century. This has profound implications:

• SDG 15: The Landes Forest and other ecosystems face an existential threat, jeopardizing biodiversity and the carbon sequestration services they provide.
• SDG 11 & SDG 3: The safety of communities is at risk from more frequent and intense fires, while public health will be challenged by increased air pollution and the need for more frequent evacuations and emergency responses.
• SDG 8: Regional economies dependent on forestry and tourism will face growing disruption and financial losses.

Integrated Strategies for Resilience and Adaptation

Adapting to the escalating risk requires a multi-faceted approach that addresses hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, in line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the SDGs.

1. Managing the Hazard:
   • Implement fuel management practices like prescribed burning and mechanical thinning.
   • Enhance public education campaigns on fire-safe behaviors for residents and tourists.
2. Reducing Exposure:
   • Regulate development in high-risk areas, particularly the wildland-urban interface (WUI).
   • Balance risk reduction with social equity, recognizing that the WUI often provides affordable housing (linking to SDG 1 and SDG 10).
3. Decreasing Vulnerability:
   • Strengthen firefighting capacities and invest in early warning systems.
   • Improve evacuation procedures and community preparedness plans.
   • Promote fire-resistant building codes and retrofitting of existing properties.
   • Develop financial mechanisms, including specialized insurance and healthcare plans, to support recovery and resilience.

Effective implementation requires strong collaboration between all stakeholders, from individual property owners to national governments and international bodies, embodying the spirit of SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

Conclusion and Recommendations for Sustainable Action

This report demonstrates that anthropogenic climate change is set to substantially increase the danger of summer wildfires in Southwestern France, with severe implications for sustainable development. The frequency of both daily fire-weather extremes and, more critically, prolonged seasons of compound heat and drought is projected to rise dramatically throughout the 21st century.

The findings serve as a critical warning that past conditions are no longer a reliable guide for future risk. To avert the worst impacts and maintain progress towards the SDGs, the following actions are recommended:

1. Prioritize Climate Mitigation: Aggressively pursue emissions reductions in line with SDG 13 to follow a low-emission pathway (e.g., SSP1-2.6), which is the only scenario that offers a chance to stabilize long-term wildfire risk.
2. Implement Proactive Adaptation: Immediately develop and fund comprehensive adaptation strategies that address hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. These measures are essential even under low-emission scenarios.
3. Strengthen Regional and International Cooperation (SDG 17): Enhance cross-border collaboration for wildfire response, as the increasing likelihood of simultaneous events may strain regional resources.
4. Integrate Wildfire Risk into All Planning: Local and national authorities must incorporate future wildfire projections into land-use planning, infrastructure development, public health strategies, and economic policies to build truly resilient and sustainable communities (SDG 11).

Failure to act decisively on both mitigation and adaptation will not only endanger lives, ecosystems, and economies in regions like Southwestern France but will also constitute a major setback for the global 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article on wildfire danger in Southwestern France connects to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) due to the multifaceted nature of wildfires, which are driven by climate change and have severe environmental, social, and economic consequences. The following SDGs are addressed:

• SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being: The article highlights the direct impact of wildfires on human health, including fatalities and the effects of air pollution.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities: The article discusses the destruction of homes and infrastructure, the evacuation of communities, and the risks associated with the wildland-urban interface (WUI), all of which relate to the safety and resilience of human settlements.
• SDG 13: Climate Action: This is the central theme of the article. The entire study is framed around assessing the increasing risk of wildfires under different anthropogenic climate change scenarios (RCPs and SSPs) and underscores the need for both mitigation and adaptation strategies.
• SDG 15: Life on Land: The article details the devastating impact of wildfires on terrestrial ecosystems, including the massive loss of forest area, degradation of land, and the effect on biodiversity.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals: The discussion section points to the necessity of collaboration among stakeholders and international cooperation to manage the escalating wildfire risk effectively.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the issues discussed, several specific SDG targets can be identified:

1. Under SDG 13 (Climate Action):
   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. The article’s primary goal is to assess the “summer wildfire danger evolution” to inform “mitigation and adaptation strategies.” The discussion explicitly states that “adaptation measures to face the increase in wildfire danger need to be developed as of today.”
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning. The study provides scientific projections (e.g., “under the highest emission scenario, the probability of extreme compound hot and dry events increases from 0.04 to 0.49”) that are essential for policymakers to integrate into planning.
   • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning. The study itself contributes to this target, and the discussion mentions the need for “public education campaigns that promote fire-safe behaviours.”
2. Under SDG 15 (Life on Land):
   • Target 15.1: Ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services, in particular forests. The article quantifies the destruction of forests, stating that in Canada in 2023, “18.5 million ha were burnt,” and the Black Summer fires in Australia “burnt 5.8 to 8.1 million ha.”
   • Target 15.2: Promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, and restore degraded forests. The article mentions the need for “Fuel management practices, such as prescribed burning and mechanical thinning,” which are key components of sustainable forest management in fire-prone areas.
   • Target 15.3: Combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil. Wildfires, driven by “prolonged drought,” are a major cause of land degradation, an issue central to this target.
   • Target 15.5: Take urgent and significant action to reduce the degradation of natural habitats, halt the loss of biodiversity and prevent the extinction of threatened species. The article provides a stark example, noting that during Australia’s Black Summer, an estimated “3 billion animals were lost or displaced, with possible extinctions.”
3. Under SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities):
   • Target 11.5: Significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct economic losses… caused by disasters. The article provides numerous statistics relevant to this target, including “the loss of 173 lives” in Australia, “114 fatalities” in Portugal, the “evacuation of 234,000 people” in Canada, and financial impacts of “over 8 billion dollars” in Australia.
   • Target 11.b: Substantially increase the number of cities and human settlements adopting and implementing integrated policies and plans towards… adaptation to climate change, disaster risk reduction. The discussion section advocates for regulating “the expansion of human settlements and infrastructure into fire-prone areas, particularly the wildland–urban interface (WUI).”
4. Under SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being):
   • Target 3.9: Substantially reduce the number of deaths and illnesses from… air… pollution and contamination. The article notes that the 2021 Greece wildfires “caused a significant increase in air pollution” and that the Black Summer fires in Australia “emitted up to 830 million tonnes of CO2eq.”
   • Target 3.d: Strengthen the capacity of all countries… for early warning, risk reduction and management of national and global health risks. The article supports this by highlighting the need for “implementing early warning systems, refining evacuation procedures,” and developing “healthcare plans tailored to wildfire-related emergencies.”
5. Under SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals):
   • Target 17.16 & 17.17: Enhance partnerships (global, multi-stakeholder, public, public-private, civil society). The article concludes that effective adaptation requires collaboration among “all the stakeholders involved… (individual property owners, local decision makers, government agencies, etc.).”

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article mentions and implies several quantitative and qualitative indicators that can be used to measure progress.

• Direct Disaster Impact Indicators (for Target 11.5):
  • Number of deaths attributed to disasters: The article explicitly cites figures like “173 lives” (Australia 2009), “114 fatalities” (Portugal 2017), and “102 deaths” (Greece 2018).
  • Number of people affected by disasters: The article mentions the “evacuation of 234,000 people” in Canada.
  • Direct economic loss from disasters: The article provides figures for “fire suppression costs” (e.g., “$1.4 billion” in Canada) and “national financial impacts” (e.g., “over 8 billion dollars” in Australia).
  • Damage to critical infrastructure and housing: The article notes the “destruction of over 2000 homes” in Australia and “1200 buildings” in Greece.
• Environmental Impact Indicators (for Target 15.1, 15.5):
  • Area of forest burnt: This is a primary metric throughout the article, with figures like “18.5 million ha” (Canada 2023), “33,052 ha” (France 2022), and “96,000 ha” (Greece 2023). This serves as a direct indicator of forest degradation.
  • Impact on biodiversity: The estimate that “3 billion animals were lost or displaced” in Australia is a powerful, albeit difficult to measure, indicator of biodiversity loss.
  • Greenhouse gas emissions from fires: The article quantifies this with the example of Australia’s 2019-2020 fires emitting “up to 830 million tonnes of CO2eq.”
• Climate and Hazard Indicators (for Target 13.1):
  • Fire Weather Index (FWI): The FWI is used extensively as a key indicator of daily fire danger. The study projects the “frequency of extreme conditions propitious to wildfires as the survival probability of the 90th percentile increases from 0.11 to 0.29 in August” under RCP8.5.
  • Seasonal Compound Index (SM6-T3-VPD3): This novel index, combining soil moisture, temperature, and vapour pressure deficit, is used to measure long-term drought and heat conditions. Its projected increase in probability (e.g., from 0.04 to 0.49 under SSP5-8.5) is a direct indicator of increasing hazard.
  • Frequency of extreme weather events: The analysis of the number of days exceeding certain FWI percentiles (e.g., FWI₇₅, FWI₉₀) serves as a clear indicator of changing climate-related hazards.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: nature.com