Report on the Fall 2025 Weather Forecast and Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

A long-range forecast for Fall 2025, issued by The Old Farmer’s Almanac, predicts that the majority of the United States will experience warmer and drier than average conditions. This forecast has significant implications for several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those concerning food security, water resources, climate action, and terrestrial ecosystems. Regional variations are noted, with some areas, including the Northeast and parts of the Southwest, expected to see cooler, dry conditions. Proactive planning based on this forecast is critical for advancing sustainability and resilience.

National Forecast and SDG Implications

The general forecast for September, October, and November 2025 indicates above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation across most of the United States. These conditions present both challenges and opportunities in the context of global sustainability targets.

Impact on Key Sustainable Development Goals

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger: The anticipated dry conditions pose a direct threat to food security. Below-average rainfall can lead to lower crop yields and stress on livestock, challenging efforts to end hunger and promote sustainable agriculture. While an extended growing season may be a potential benefit in some areas, the overall risk to agricultural productivity is high.
• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation: Widespread dry conditions will exacerbate water stress in many regions. Reduced rainfall impacts the availability of fresh water for consumption, sanitation, and agriculture, undermining the goal of ensuring sustainable water management for all.
• SDG 13: Climate Action: The prediction of “warmer than usual” temperatures aligns with broader climate change trends. This forecast underscores the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to cope with increasing heat and altered precipitation patterns.
• SDG 15: Life on Land: An arid autumn significantly increases the risk of wildfires. Such events threaten biodiversity, destroy forests, and degrade land, directly conflicting with the goal of protecting and restoring terrestrial ecosystems.

Regional Forecast Analysis and Localized SDG Impact

While the national trend is warm and dry, specific regional forecasts present a more nuanced picture with varied implications for local sustainability efforts.

1. Northeast (Region 1): Forecasted to be cool and dry. The lack of precipitation remains a primary concern for regional agriculture (SDG 2) and water supplies (SDG 6).
2. Appalachians (Region 3): Cool and dry conditions are expected. This pattern could strain water resources and affect the health of forest ecosystems (SDG 15).
3. Lower Lakes (Region 6): Chilly and dry weather is anticipated. Reduced rainfall will impact the Great Lakes basin, affecting both agriculture (SDG 2) and local economies dependent on stable water levels.
4. Ohio Valley (Region 7): A cool, dry fall is predicted. These conditions could negatively affect crop yields and increase fire risk in a densely populated industrial region (SDG 11, SDG 15).
5. Deep South (Region 8): The southern portion is expected to see warm temperatures with average rainfall. This may mitigate the severe drought impacts seen elsewhere, but warm temperatures still pose a risk to crop health (SDG 2).
6. Upper Midwest (Region 9): A cool, dry fall with an early chance of snow. An early frost could shorten the growing season, impacting agricultural output and food security (SDG 2).
7. High Plains (Region 12): Uniquely forecasted to be warm and wet. Increased precipitation could benefit agriculture and replenish water sources (positive for SDG 2 and SDG 6), though it may also increase the risk of localized flooding (SDG 11).
8. Desert Southwest (Region 14): The eastern portion is expected to be cool and dry. In an already arid region, any reduction in precipitation intensifies challenges for water management (SDG 6) and ecosystem survival (SDG 15).
9. Pacific Northwest (Region 15): A warm and wet season is predicted. This could support crop growth but also requires monitoring for potential flood risks and impacts on infrastructure (SDG 11).
10. Pacific Southwest (Region 16): A split forecast with cool, dry conditions in the south and warm, dry conditions elsewhere. The dry forecast for most of California heightens concerns over water scarcity and wildfire risk (SDG 6, SDG 11, SDG 15).
11. Alaska (Region 17): Anticipated to be significantly warmer than usual with average to dry conditions. Abnormally high temperatures, especially in October, are a stark indicator of climate change’s impact on arctic and sub-arctic ecosystems (SDG 13, SDG 15).
12. Hawaii (Region 18): A varied forecast of cool/dry and cool/wet conditions across the islands. These variations highlight the vulnerability of island ecosystems to climatic shifts, affecting biodiversity and freshwater availability (SDG 6, SDG 15).

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger

  The article connects to this goal by discussing the impact of weather on agriculture. It explicitly mentions that the predicted weather will “impact harvest” and could lead to “lower crop yields.” It also notes a potential upside of an “extended growing season,” all of which are directly related to food production and security.

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  This goal is relevant as the article is centered on a long-range weather forecast, detailing anticipated temperature and rainfall deviations (“warmer than usual, with below-average rainfall”). It highlights a direct climate-related hazard by stating that the predicted arid climate leads to an “increased risk of wildfires.” The forecast itself serves as a tool for adaptation to these climate-related events.

• SDG 15: Life on Land

  The article touches upon SDG 15 by discussing conditions that affect terrestrial ecosystems. The prediction of a “warm, dry fall” relates to drought conditions, which can impact land health. Furthermore, the mentioned “increased risk of wildfires” is a significant threat to forests, biodiversity, and land ecosystems.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger
  • Target 2.4: “By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters…”
    
    Explanation: The article’s forecast for a “warm, dry fall” with “lower crop yields” highlights the challenge of adapting agricultural practices to extreme weather like drought. The almanac itself is presented as a tool for farmers to anticipate and adapt to these conditions.
• SDG 13: Climate Action
  • Target 13.1: “Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.”
    
    Explanation: The article discusses climate-related hazards such as a “warm, dry fall” and an “increased risk of wildfires.” The forecast provides information that allows communities and sectors like agriculture to build resilience and adapt to these predicted hazards.
• SDG 15: Life on Land
  • Target 15.3: “By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought and floods…”
    
    Explanation: The forecast of “below-average rainfall” and a “dry fall” for the majority of the U.S. directly relates to drought conditions, a key driver of land degradation and desertification.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• For Target 2.4:
  • Implied Indicator: Measurement of agricultural output and productivity.
    
    Explanation: The article explicitly mentions “lower crop yields” as a potential disadvantage of the predicted weather. Tracking crop yields would be a direct way to measure the impact of weather on food production systems.
• For Target 13.1:
  • Implied Indicator: Number and extent of climate-related disasters, such as wildfires.
    
    Explanation: The article states there is an “increased risk of wildfires” due to the warm and dry conditions. Monitoring the frequency and scale of wildfires would serve as an indicator of the impact of such climate-related hazards.
• For Target 15.3:
  • Implied Indicator: Area of land affected by drought.
    
    Explanation: The forecast of a “warm, dry fall” with “below-average rainfall” for most of the country implies widespread drought conditions. Measuring the proportion of land experiencing drought would be an indicator for this target.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: goodhousekeeping.com