Report on Emerging Global Water Conflicts and Their Impact on Sustainable Development Goals

An analysis of recent geopolitical events indicates that water is increasingly becoming a primary driver of conflict and a significant national security flashpoint. The intensification of climate change, coupled with inadequate governance frameworks, is exacerbating tensions over shared water resources. These developments pose a direct threat to the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to water, peace, climate action, and sustainable ecosystems.

SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions Under Threat

The weaponization of water resources and the failure of governance systems are undermining peace and stability in multiple regions, directly challenging the targets of SDG 16.

The Emergence of Hydroterrorism and Institutional Weakness

• A new era of “hydroterrorism” is emerging, where water is used as a tool of warfare and coercion, particularly in vulnerable regions like the Sahel.
• Existing international frameworks for managing shared resources are proving inadequate in the face of escalating climate impacts and geopolitical competition.
• There is an urgent call for international institutions to re-classify water as a critical national security issue to foster more robust and enforceable governance mechanisms.

Case Studies in Governance Failure

1. Iran: The existence of a “Water Mafia” highlights severe institutional corruption and mismanagement. This internal conflict over resources is draining the country’s water supply, threatening both environmental stability (SDG 15) and public trust in institutions (SDG 16).
2. Turkey: Large-scale dam and infrastructure projects, while framed as development, have been reported to primarily benefit politically connected construction firms. These projects are altering the national waterscape, degrading ecosystems, and jeopardizing the livelihoods of local communities, thereby undermining sustainable economic practices (SDG 8) and responsible consumption and production (SDG 12).

SDG 6 & SDG 7: Challenges in Water Access and Transboundary Energy Cooperation

Disputes over the control and management of transboundary water sources for sanitation, agriculture, and energy are creating significant diplomatic friction and hindering progress on SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) and SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy).

Conflict Over Shared Hydroelectric Resources

• The Itaipu Dam: Tensions between Brazil and Paraguay are escalating as they renegotiate a treaty for the Itaipu Dam, one of the world’s largest hydroelectric power sources. This dispute directly impacts SDG 7 by creating uncertainty in energy supply and challenges SDG 6.5 (implement transboundary water cooperation).

Water Scarcity in Central Asia

• Afghanistan and Uzbekistan: The Taliban’s actions concerning the Amu Darya river threaten to worsen long-standing water disputes in Central Asia. This situation jeopardizes water access for downstream nations, impacting food security (SDG 2) and regional peace (SDG 16), and represents a critical failure in transboundary water management.

SDG 13, 11 & 15: Climate Change as a Conflict Multiplier

The impacts of climate change, as outlined in SDG 13 (Climate Action), are a primary catalyst for water-related crises, affecting the sustainability of communities (SDG 11) and terrestrial ecosystems (SDG 15).

Accelerated Environmental Crises

• Climate change is accelerating the frequency and intensity of both droughts and floods, placing immense stress on water systems globally.
• In Bamako, Mali, severe flooding has submerged entire areas, displacing communities and destroying infrastructure, highlighting the vulnerability of urban settlements (SDG 11).
• In western Turkey, the complete drying of Marmara Lake, exacerbated by damming and mismanagement, has destroyed a vital ecosystem. This has eliminated the livelihoods of local fishermen and farmers, demonstrating a direct negative impact on SDG 15 (Life on Land) and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).

Analysis of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article “The Water Wars Are Coming” discusses a range of interconnected global challenges that are directly relevant to several Sustainable Development Goals. The primary issues of water scarcity, conflict over resources, and environmental degradation link to the following SDGs:

• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

  This is the most central SDG, as the entire article revolves around water-related crises, including scarcity, the management of shared water sources, and the degradation of water-related ecosystems like Marmara Lake.

• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

  The article’s main theme is the emergence of water as a “national security flashpoint.” It explicitly discusses “water wars,” “hydroterrorism,” violent extremism in the Sahel, and international disputes (Brazil-Paraguay, Afghanistan-Uzbekistan), all of which fall under the purview of peace and security.

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  The article directly attributes the worsening water crises to climate change, stating, “As climate change accelerates drought and flooding, stakeholders tussle over shared water sources.” This highlights the link between climate change and its impact on water resources and security.

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

  The dispute between Brazil and Paraguay over the Itaipu Dam, described as “one of the world’s most powerful energy sources,” connects the issue of transboundary water management directly to the generation and control of clean, renewable energy (hydropower).

• SDG 15: Life on Land

  The article details the environmental degradation of inland water bodies. The case of Turkey’s Marmara Lake, which has become a “dry bed,” is a clear example of the destruction of a freshwater ecosystem, impacting local biodiversity and livelihoods that depend on it.

• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

  The mention of “mega-infrastructure projects” in Turkey, specifically dams, and the Itaipu Dam on the Brazil-Paraguay border, relates to the development, management, and geopolitical implications of large-scale infrastructure.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the issues discussed, several specific SDG targets can be identified:

1. Target 6.4: By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity.

   The article highlights severe water scarcity with phrases like “draining Iran Dry” and the description of the “dry bed of Marmara Lake,” pointing to unsustainable water withdrawals and management failures.

2. Target 6.5: By 2030, implement integrated water resources management at all levels, including through transboundary cooperation as appropriate.

   The article is replete with examples of failures in transboundary cooperation, such as the tensions over the Itaipu Dam (Brazil-Paraguay), the Amu Darya river (Afghanistan-Uzbekistan), and conflicts in the Sahel. The text notes that “fair-weather frameworks for governing resource management lose relevance,” underscoring the need for this target.

3. Target 6.6: By 2020, protect and restore water-related ecosystems, including mountains, forests, wetlands, rivers, aquifers and lakes.

   The transformation of Marmara Lake in Turkey from a significant water body to a “dry, dusty landscape” is a direct illustration of the failure to protect and the subsequent need to restore a critical water-related ecosystem.

4. Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere.

   The article’s focus on “water wars,” “hydroterrorism,” and “violent extremism” in the Sahel directly relates to an increase in violence and conflict driven by resource scarcity.

5. Target 16.a: Strengthen relevant national institutions, including through international cooperation, to build capacity at all levels… to prevent violence and combat terrorism.

   The call for “international institutions to start treating water as a national security flashpoint” is a direct appeal to strengthen institutional capacity and international cooperation to manage and prevent the conflicts described.

6. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.

   The article’s opening statement that “climate change accelerates drought and flooding” and the image of a flooded area in Bamako, Mali, demonstrate the increased vulnerability and lack of adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

The article provides several qualitative and implied indicators that can be used to measure progress:

• Indicator for Target 6.4 (Water Scarcity): The article implies a high level of water stress (Indicator 6.4.2) through descriptive evidence.

  Implied Indicator: The physical state of water bodies. The article describes Marmara Lake as a “dry bed” and Iran being “drained dry.” The visual of an abandoned boat on a former lakebed serves as a powerful qualitative indicator of extreme water stress.

• Indicator for Target 6.5 (Transboundary Cooperation): The article points to the failure of cooperation, which relates to Indicator 6.5.2 (Proportion of transboundary basin area with an operational arrangement for water cooperation).

  Implied Indicator: The frequency and intensity of international disputes over shared water resources. The “spying scandal” between Brazil and Paraguay and the potential for “water wars” in Central Asia are negative indicators, suggesting that cooperation frameworks are not operational or effective.

• Indicator for Target 6.6 (Ecosystem Health): This relates to Indicator 6.6.1 (Change in the extent of water-related ecosystems over time).

  Implied Indicator: The change in the surface area of inland water bodies. The article provides a stark data point by noting the complete disappearance of Marmara Lake, representing a 100% negative change in its extent.

• Indicator for Target 16.1 (Violence Reduction): This relates to tracking conflict incidents.

  Implied Indicator: The number of reported incidents of “hydroterrorism” and conflicts classified as “water wars.” The article suggests these incidents are increasing, marking a negative trend for this target.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: foreignpolicy.com