Will Texas actually run out of water? Your questions about the state’s water supply answered. – The Texas Tribune

Report on Texas Water Supply Challenges and Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

The state of Texas is confronting a significant water supply crisis, exacerbated by population growth, climate change, and aging infrastructure. This report analyzes the multifaceted challenges to water security in Texas, framing the issues and proposed solutions within the context of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The analysis highlights the critical need for integrated water resource management to achieve SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and SDG 13 (Climate Action).

1. Water Scarcity Projections and SDG 6

Projections from the Texas Water Development Board indicate a potential for severe water shortages by 2030, directly threatening the state’s ability to meet SDG 6, which aims to ensure the availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.

1.1. Projected Deficits

• The 2022 state water plan projects a significant deficit in water supply for municipal and agricultural needs within the next decade under recurring drought conditions.
• Groundwater availability, which constitutes half of the state’s supply, is projected to decrease by 25% by 2070.
• The total water supply is estimated to decline by 18% by 2070, while the population is expected to grow substantially, further straining resources and challenging the targets of SDG 11.

1.2. Strategic Interventions for Water Security

To mitigate these risks and advance SDG 6, Texas is pursuing a multi-pronged strategy funded in part by a voter-approved $20 billion fund. Key strategies include:

1. Development of New Water Sources: Projects focusing on desalination and aquifer storage and recovery are crucial for diversifying the water portfolio.
2. Water Conservation: Promoting efficient water use across all sectors is essential for achieving SDG 6.4 (substantially increase water-use efficiency).
3. Infrastructure Renewal: Repairing aging and failing water infrastructure is critical to reducing water loss and ensuring the reliability of supply, contributing to SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure).

2. Governance and Integrated Water Resource Management (SDG 6.5)

Texas employs a complex governance structure to manage its water resources, involving state and local entities. This framework is central to implementing integrated water resources management as called for in SDG 6.5.

2.1. Surface Water Management: Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ)

The TCEQ’s role is fundamental to managing state-owned surface water and ensuring its quality.

• Water Rights Permitting: The TCEQ issues permits for the use of surface water based on a seniority system, managing allocation during periods of drought.
• Water Quality Enforcement: The agency enforces federal and state laws to protect water quality for consumption and ecosystems, directly supporting SDG 6.3 (improve water quality) and SDG 14 (Life Below Water).

2.2. Groundwater Management: Local Groundwater Districts

The management of groundwater is decentralized through 98 local groundwater districts.

• Sustainable Yield Management: Districts set “desired future conditions” to prevent aquifer depletion, aligning with the principles of sustainable resource management under SDG 6.
• Data and Modeling: Districts utilize monitoring wells and groundwater availability models to make informed decisions on pumping limits, ensuring long-term aquifer health.

3. Climate Change Impacts and Regional Vulnerabilities (SDG 13)

Climate change poses a significant threat to the reliability of Texas’s water supply, directly impacting the state’s progress toward SDG 13 (Climate Action) and exacerbating existing vulnerabilities.

3.1. Reservoir Integrity

Rising temperatures and altered weather patterns have a direct, negative impact on the state’s reservoirs, which store approximately half of the total water supply.

• Water Quantity: Higher temperatures accelerate evaporation rates and reduce runoff into rivers and streams, leading to lower reservoir levels.
• Water Quality: Studies project that climate change will lead to increased water temperatures and concentrations of sulfates and chlorides, while decreasing oxygen levels. This degradation affects water potability (SDG 6) and aquatic ecosystems (SDG 14).

3.2. Regional Disparities

Water challenges are not uniform across Texas’s 16 water planning regions, highlighting the need for tailored strategies to ensure equitable access as envisioned in SDG 6 and SDG 11.

• East Texas: Generally water-rich.
• West and South Texas: Arid and prone to severe, prolonged droughts, such as the ongoing situation in the Rio Grande Valley.

4. Water Quality and Public Health (SDG 6.1)

Ensuring access to safe drinking water (SDG 6.1) is a primary objective of water management entities across the state. While quality varies, regulatory oversight aims to meet or exceed federal standards.

4.1. Quality Assessment

• Water quality is subject to regional variation. A 2024 statewide competition recognized the City of Dallas for providing the highest quality drinking water.
• Water districts, such as the North Texas Municipal Water District, conduct rigorous and regular testing to ensure water meets standards set by the TCEQ and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

1. SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation
   • The entire article is centered on Texas’s water supply crisis, directly addressing the availability, quality, and sustainable management of water. It discusses drinking water shortages, water for agriculture, groundwater depletion, and the management of water resources.
2. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • The article explicitly links climate change to the water crisis. It details how rising temperatures and recurring droughts exacerbate water shortages by increasing evaporation from reservoirs and drying out soil, thus impacting the reliability of surface water supplies.
3. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
   • The text highlights the problem of “failing infrastructure that causes water lines to break and gush water out.” It also mentions that voters approved funding for “repairing aging infrastructure and projects that create the new sources of water supply,” which relates directly to developing reliable and resilient infrastructure.
4. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
   • The article warns that “towns and cities could be on a path toward a severe shortage of water by 2030.” The focus on securing water supplies and maintaining infrastructure is crucial for ensuring that cities and human settlements are inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Target 6.1: Achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all.
   • The article addresses this target by highlighting the projection that Texas could face a “severe shortage of water by 2030,” which would directly threaten access to drinking water for its growing population.
2. Target 6.3: Improve water quality by reducing pollution, eliminating dumping and minimizing release of hazardous chemicals and materials.
   • This target is relevant as the article discusses the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality’s (TCEQ) role in enforcing laws to “keep water quality safe enough to drink” and responding to “contamination events.” It also notes that climate change is expected to degrade water quality in reservoirs by increasing temperatures, sulfate, and chloride while decreasing oxygen and pH levels.
3. Target 6.4: Substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity.
   • The article discusses the need for strategies like “conservation” to secure water supplies. It also details projections of declining water availability, with groundwater expected to “drop by 25% by 2070” and the total water supply to “decline by 18%,” underscoring the urgency of managing water withdrawals sustainably.
4. Target 6.5: Implement integrated water resources management at all levels, including through transboundary cooperation as appropriate.
   • The article describes Texas’s management structure, which includes “16 regions for water planning,” “98 Texas groundwater districts,” and state agencies like the TCEQ and the Texas Water Development Board. This reflects an effort to implement integrated water management. The mention of a “binational tussle over water with Mexico” also points to the transboundary aspect of this target.
5. Target 9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure…to support economic development and human well-being.
   • The article’s focus on “fixing the failing infrastructure” and the voter-approved funding for “repairing aging infrastructure” directly aligns with the goal of developing reliable infrastructure to ensure a stable water supply.
6. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
   • The discussion of how climate change accelerates water evaporation from reservoirs and makes surface water “less and less reliable” highlights the need for Texas to strengthen its resilience to climate-related hazards like drought and extreme heat.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. Projected Water Supply vs. Demand:
   • The article refers to the Texas Water Development Board’s 2022 water plan, which projects a “severe shortage of water by 2030.” Tracking the gap between projected supply and demand serves as a key indicator for water scarcity (Target 6.4).
2. Groundwater and Surface Water Availability Levels:
   • Specific figures are mentioned, such as the projection that “groundwater availability… will drop by 25% by 2070” and the “total water supply… is estimated to decline by 18%.” These percentages are direct indicators of the state of water resources (Target 6.4).
3. Water Quality Parameters:
   • The article mentions a study that expects climate change to lead to “increased water temperatures, sulfate and chloride” and “decreasing levels of oxygen and pH” in reservoirs. These chemical and physical properties are measurable indicators of water quality (Target 6.3).
4. Investment in Water Infrastructure:
   • The article states that voters approved funding for water projects, although the “$20 billion sum falls far short of what might be needed.” The amount of financial investment allocated to repairing and developing water infrastructure is a clear indicator of progress toward Target 9.1.
5. Reservoir Water Levels:
   • The article notes that as Texas gets hotter, “water levels in the reservoirs will also drop.” Monitoring reservoir levels is an indicator of the impact of climate-related hazards like drought and heat on water supply (Target 13.1).

4. Summary of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: texastribune.org