Report on the Potential Discontinuation of US-led Carbon Monitoring and its Implications for the Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

A report from the international scientific community raises significant concerns regarding proposed budgetary cuts to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). These cuts threaten to dismantle critical carbon dioxide (CO₂) monitoring infrastructure, which forms the backbone of global climate data collection. The potential cessation of these services poses a direct and severe threat to the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), most notably SDG 13 (Climate Action), and undermines the global partnership frameworks outlined in SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals). This report outlines the scope of the potential data loss, its impact on specific SDGs, and the urgent call for international contingency planning.

Threat to Global Climate Data Infrastructure and SDG 13 (Climate Action)

Proposed U.S. Budgetary Reductions

The U.S. administration’s proposed budget for fiscal year 2026 includes the elimination of NOAA’s climate and weather research funding. This action would precipitate severe consequences, including:

• The shutdown of key monitoring facilities, including the historic Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.
• A reduction of over 2000 full-time staff members.
• The termination of the NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory’s (GML) greenhouse gas program, described by experts as the “backbone of global carbon observing.”

These measures would effectively halt the collection of baseline data essential for tracking global progress against the targets of SDG 13.

Impact on Long-Term Climate Records

The potential disruption endangers the continuity of the world’s most important long-term climate datasets. Key records at risk include:

1. The Mauna Loa Record: The longest continuous, single-site record of atmospheric CO₂, initiated in 1957, which is fundamental to our understanding of anthropogenic climate change.
2. The South Pole Record: The most critical long-term monitoring station in the Southern Hemisphere, vital for establishing a reliable global average and tracking inter-hemispheric carbon flows.

Experts warn that losing the consistency of these records would severely compromise the ability to reliably resolve climate trends, directly impeding the scientific foundation required for informed climate action under SDG 13.

Cascading Impacts on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

Jeopardizing SDG 14 (Life Below Water) and SDG 15 (Life on Land)

The Global Carbon Budget, an international effort, relies heavily on NOAA’s data to quantify the uptake of CO₂ by oceans and terrestrial ecosystems. The loss of this data would directly hamper efforts to:

• Address SDG 14: Monitor and mitigate ocean acidification (Target 14.3), a direct consequence of increased oceanic CO₂ absorption.
• Address SDG 15: Understand the role of terrestrial ecosystems as carbon sinks, which is crucial for strategies aimed at protecting forests and restoring degraded land (Target 15.3).

Undermining SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals)

The current global climate monitoring system exemplifies a functional, albeit vulnerable, international partnership. The proposed unilateral withdrawal of U.S. support threatens this collaborative framework. Climate scientists are issuing an urgent call for other nations and agencies to prepare to assume these responsibilities, highlighting the critical need for robust global partnerships (SDG 17) to maintain essential global public goods. The lack of an immediate contingency plan from entities like the European Union’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service underscores the fragility of the current system and the urgent need to strengthen multi-stakeholder partnerships (Target 17.16) for a more resilient global observation network.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The potential termination of NOAA’s carbon monitoring services represents a critical failure point for global climate science and the pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals. The loss of this data would create a profound gap in our ability to track, understand, and respond to climate change, with far-reaching consequences for environmental and societal well-being.

Recommendations

• International scientific bodies and governments must immediately collaborate to develop a contingency plan to ensure the continuity of essential CO₂ monitoring, upholding the principles of SDG 17.
• Advocacy efforts should be directed at U.S. policymakers to underscore the global importance of NOAA’s climate programs and their foundational role in achieving the 2030 Agenda.
• The global community must work towards building a more distributed and resilient global climate observation system, reducing over-reliance on any single national agency and strengthening international scientific cooperation (Target 17.6).

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article discusses issues that are directly and indirectly connected to several Sustainable Development Goals. The primary SDGs identified are:

• SDG 13: Climate Action
  
  This is the most central SDG to the article. The entire text revolves around the critical importance of monitoring carbon dioxide (CO₂), the primary greenhouse gas driving climate change. The potential loss of data from key sites like Mauna Loa Observatory directly impacts the world’s ability to track, understand, and act on climate change. The article states that this monitoring is crucial for “understanding Earth’s rising temperatures.”
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
  
  The article highlights the interconnectedness of the global scientific community. It explains how the Global Carbon Budget is an “international effort” that “relies heavily on the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).” The potential withdrawal of US support necessitates that “scientific agencies in other countries must prepare to take over,” underscoring the need for robust international partnerships in science and data sharing.
• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
  
  This goal is relevant because the article discusses the foundational infrastructure for scientific research. The proposed budget cuts threaten to “shut down laboratories including Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii” and jeopardize the monitoring station at the South Pole. These observatories represent critical scientific infrastructure, and the proposed cuts to funding and a “reduction of more than 2000 full-time staff” directly impact scientific research and innovation capacity.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the issues raised, the following specific SDG targets can be identified:

1. Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning.
   
   Explanation: The CO₂ monitoring programs, such as the one at Mauna Loa and the work of the Global Carbon Budget, provide the fundamental data that underpins all climate change awareness, education, and early warning systems. The article warns that losing this data would cripple our ability to “reliably resolve trends” and understand the flows of greenhouse gases, thereby weakening institutional capacity for mitigation and adaptation.
2. Target 9.5: Enhance scientific research, upgrade the technological capabilities of industrial sectors in all countries, in particular developing countries, including, by 2030, encouraging innovation and substantially increasing the number of research and development workers and public and private research and development spending.
   
   Explanation: The article directly addresses a threat to this target by describing proposed budget cuts that would “eliminate the agency’s spending on climate and weather research and cut its full-time staff by more than 2000 people.” This represents a direct decrease in research spending and the number of researchers, contrary to the target’s aim.
3. Target 17.6: Enhance North-South, South-South and triangular regional and international cooperation on and access to science, technology and innovation and enhance knowledge sharing on mutually agreed terms.
   
   Explanation: The article describes a successful, existing international cooperation where NOAA provides “critical baseline data” and “calibrating measurements” for partners around the world. The potential termination of this program threatens this knowledge-sharing ecosystem and highlights the fragility of such international scientific partnerships.
4. Target 17.18: By 2020, enhance capacity-building support to developing countries, including for least developed countries and small island developing States, to increase significantly the availability of high-quality, timely and reliable data disaggregated by income, gender, age, race, ethnicity, migratory status, disability, geographic location and other characteristics relevant in national contexts.
   
   Explanation: The core theme of the article is the potential “loss of crucial data.” The NOAA program is described as the “backbone of global carbon observing,” and its loss would severely diminish the availability of “high-quality, timely and reliable data” on greenhouse gases. The article emphasizes the importance of consistency, stating, “You can’t just jump from one index to another and still reliably resolve trends.”

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

The article mentions or implies several specific indicators that are used to track progress on climate action and scientific capacity:

• Atmospheric CO₂ concentration: This is the primary metric discussed. The continuous measurement of CO₂ at sites like Mauna Loa, which has the “longest continuous record of CO₂ at a single site,” serves as a direct indicator for tracking greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere (relevant to SDG 13).
• Quantification of the Global Carbon Budget: The article explicitly mentions the “Global Carbon Budget,” an international effort to quantify “how much CO₂ is being emitted and how much is being taken up by the land and oceans.” This comprehensive budget is a key indicator of the global carbon cycle’s state.
• Public expenditure on research and development: The article provides a direct indicator of a negative trend by citing the proposed budget for fiscal year 2026, which aims to “eliminate the agency’s spending on climate and weather research” (relevant to Target 9.5).
• Number of researchers: A specific indicator of declining scientific capacity is mentioned with the proposal to “cut its full-time staff by more than 2000 people” (relevant to Target 9.5).
• Continuity and consistency of data records: The article implies the importance of this as an indicator by highlighting the value of the Mauna Loa record (since 1957) and warning that losing “long-term consistency” is a major problem for resolving trends (relevant to Target 17.18).

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: newscientist.com