Report on Post-Paris Agreement Climate Projections and Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

A probabilistic assessment of climate change prospects for the period 2015-2024 reveals critical insights into the global pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 13 (Climate Action). The analysis, based on population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, and carbon intensity, indicates a significant conflict between economic and environmental objectives.

• Progress was observed in decoupling economic activity from carbon emissions, as global carbon intensity declined by 25%. This improvement reflects positive momentum towards SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure).
• However, these gains were more than offset by rapid global economic growth, a primary objective of SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). The resulting 5.6% increase in overall carbon emissions demonstrates a direct challenge to achieving SDG 13.
• Consequently, the projected global average temperature increase by 2100 has only marginally decreased, from 2.6°C to 2.4°C. The probability of limiting warming to below the 2°C target remains low at 17%.
• On a positive note, the probability of catastrophic climate change exceeding a 3°C increase has been substantially reduced, falling from 26% to 9%.

Analysis of Climate Action Progress (SDG 13)

Emissions Trends from 2015-2024

The nine years following the Paris Agreement have failed to produce a decline in total CO2 emissions, a core requirement for achieving SDG 13. Instead of the targeted average annual decline of 0.8%, global emissions increased by an average of 0.6% per year. This outcome underscores the immense difficulty of bending the global emissions curve downwards while pursuing universal economic development.

Updated Temperature Projections to 2100

The updated probabilistic forecast provides a mixed outlook for long-term climate stability. While progress on carbon intensity has improved future scenarios, the fundamental trajectory remains misaligned with the Paris Agreement’s goals.

1. Projected Warming: The median projected temperature increase by 2100 is now 2.4°C, a minor improvement from the previous 2.6°C projection. This indicates that current global efforts are insufficient to meet the “well below 2°C” target.
2. Probability of Success: The chance of achieving the Paris Agreement’s primary goal remains low, with only a 17% probability of keeping the global temperature increase below 2°C.
3. Reduced Catastrophic Risk: A significant positive development is the reduction in the likelihood of extreme warming. The probability of exceeding a 3°C temperature rise has fallen to 9%, suggesting that the most severe climate scenarios are becoming less likely.

The Interplay Between Economic Growth and Climate Goals (SDG 8 vs. SDG 13)

Economic Growth as a Driver of Emissions

The period from 2015-2024 starkly illustrates the tension between SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 13 (Climate Action). A 41% increase in world GDP on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis was the primary factor that negated the significant improvements made in carbon intensity. This dynamic highlights that without a fundamental restructuring of the global economy, economic growth will continue to undermine climate objectives.

National Performance Variations

The performance of major economies reveals different pathways and challenges in balancing economic growth with emissions reduction:

• China: Successfully exceeded its carbon intensity reduction target. However, due to rapid economic growth, its total carbon emissions increased by 18%.
• United States: Reduced total emissions by 10%, approaching its NDC-1 target of a 15% reduction. Carbon intensity decreased by a substantial 32%.
• Germany: Demonstrated strong performance by reducing CO2 emissions by 28%, far exceeding its NDC-1 target of 9%. Its carbon intensity declined by 37%.

The varying absolute carbon intensity levels—with China’s being over three times that of Germany—suggest substantial opportunities for improvement in higher-emitting nations through the adoption of technology and policies aligned with SDG 7 and SDG 9.

Progress in Decoupling and Technological Advancement (SDG 7 & SDG 9)

Global Improvements in Carbon Intensity

The most encouraging trend observed is the accelerated decline in carbon intensity. The world achieved a 25% reduction between 2015 and 2024, an annual rate of 3.1%. This is a substantial improvement over the pre-Paris historical average of 1.1% and signals meaningful progress in energy efficiency and the deployment of cleaner energy sources, directly supporting the aims of SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure).

Future Emissions Outlook

This accelerated improvement in carbon intensity has led to a more optimistic long-term forecast for annual emissions. Based on current data, annual emissions are now projected to decline by 64% by 2100, a significant improvement from the previously projected 10% decline. However, even with this progress, achieving global net-zero emissions this century on current trends is unlikely.

Assessing Global Partnerships and National Commitments (SDG 17)

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) Assessment

The framework of the Paris Agreement, a key instrument of SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals), relies on countries fulfilling their NDCs. The analysis shows that the probability of meeting these commitments varies widely. While some major economies like Germany (97%) are on track to meet their initial targets (NDC-1s), others like China (26%) and the USA (1%) face significant challenges. The more ambitious second-round commitments (NDC-2s) present an even greater challenge, with probabilities of achievement dropping to 8% for China and 22% for Germany.

Required Efforts to Achieve the 2°C Target

Current NDCs are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals. Even if all countries meet their NDC-2s and continue their efforts post-2030, the probability of staying below 2°C only rises to 53%. To achieve a likely (66%) chance of staying below 2°C, emissions reductions pledged by the largest emitters would need to increase significantly beyond their current NDC-2 commitments.

Conclusion and Implications for the 2030 Agenda

Key Findings

• Conflicting Goals: The pursuit of SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) through conventional means has directly counteracted progress on SDG 13 (Climate Action).
• Technological Progress: Significant advances in reducing carbon intensity, aligned with SDG 7 and SDG 9, have occurred but are not sufficient on their own.
• Insufficient Ambition: Global partnerships under SDG 17, manifested as NDCs, are not yet ambitious enough to limit warming to “well below 2°C.”
• Modest Improvement: The long-term temperature outlook has only slightly improved, and the risk of catastrophic warming has been reduced but not eliminated.

Policy Implications

The findings present a clear challenge to the integrated nature of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. A sustainable path forward requires policies that actively reconcile economic development with climate imperatives. This includes accelerating the transition to clean energy, fostering innovation in low-carbon technologies, and implementing economic models that do not rely on carbon-intensive growth. Greater international cooperation and more ambitious national commitments are essential to align global development with the long-term survival of the planet.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article primarily addresses issues related to climate change, economic growth, and international cooperation, which directly connect to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The following SDGs are the most relevant:

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  This is the central SDG discussed in the article. The text is framed around the 2015 Paris Agreement, its goal to limit the global average temperature increase to “well below 2 °C,” and the projection of future climate change. The entire analysis focuses on greenhouse gas emissions, temperature projections, and the effectiveness of climate policies like the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

  The article highlights a critical conflict between economic growth and climate action. It explicitly states that the progress made in reducing carbon intensity “was more than canceled out” by the “rapid rise in world GDP.” This directly addresses the challenge of decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation, a key aspect of sustainable economic models.

• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

  The concept of “carbon intensity,” defined as “carbon emissions per unit of GDP,” is a core metric throughout the article. Reducing carbon intensity involves making industries and infrastructure more efficient and environmentally sound through technological innovation. The article notes that “carbon intensity declined (i.e., improved) substantially” in the post-Paris period, which reflects progress in making industrial processes cleaner and more sustainable.

• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

  The article is fundamentally about a global partnership to address a global problem. It revolves around the Paris Agreement, an international accord that relies on cooperation and commitments (NDCs) from individual countries. The analysis of how different countries are performing against their pledges and the discussion of the USA’s potential withdrawal from the agreement underscore the importance and fragility of this global partnership for achieving climate goals.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the issues discussed, several specific SDG targets can be identified:

1. Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.

   The article’s extensive discussion of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) directly relates to this target. NDCs are the primary mechanism through which countries integrate climate goals into their national plans. The article assesses the progress of countries like China, the USA, and Germany against their initial NDCs (NDC-1s) and their updated, more ambitious NDC-2s.

2. Target 8.4: Improve progressively, through 2030, global resource efficiency in consumption and production and endeavour to decouple economic growth from environmental degradation.

   This target is at the heart of the article’s central argument. The text explains that while resource efficiency improved (carbon intensity decreased by 25%), total emissions still rose because economic growth was not successfully decoupled from environmental impact. The article states, “…fast economic growth, an aspiration of many governments and societies, has led to dramatic backsliding on carbon emissions since the Paris Agreement was adopted.”

3. Target 9.4: By 2030, upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable, with increased resource-use efficiency and greater adoption of clean and environmentally sound technologies and industrial processes.

   The significant reduction in carbon intensity is a direct result of actions related to this target. The article notes that from 2015-2024, carbon intensity decreased by 25% globally, with countries like the USA and Germany achieving reductions of 32% and 37%, respectively. This points to the adoption of cleaner technologies and more efficient industrial processes.

4. Target 17.16: Enhance the global partnership for sustainable development, complemented by multi-stakeholder partnerships that mobilize and share knowledge, expertise, technology and financial resources.

   The Paris Agreement serves as the primary example of this target in action. The article evaluates the collective progress under this global framework and discusses the implications of one major partner, the USA, withdrawing its commitment, which would raise the projected temperature increase and lower the probability of meeting the 2 °C goal.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article mentions and uses several quantitative indicators that align with official or practical measures of progress for the identified SDG targets.

• Global Average Temperature Increase

  The primary goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit the temperature increase to below 2°C. The article uses this as a key indicator of success or failure, providing specific projections such as a current trajectory leading to a 2.4°C increase by 2100. This is a direct measure of the overall impact of climate change.

• Total CO2 Emissions

  The article provides concrete data on CO2 emissions, measured in Gigatonnes (Gt CO2). It states that despite policy efforts, overall carbon emissions “rose, due to the rapid rise in world GDP.” It also projects future emissions, with the very likely range for 2100 now being 7–25 Gt, down from a previous estimate of 15–71 Gt. This is a fundamental indicator for SDG 13.

• Carbon Intensity (CO2 emissions per unit of GDP)

  This is a crucial indicator used throughout the analysis and directly corresponds to SDG Indicator 9.4.1 (CO2 emission per unit of value added). The article quantifies its improvement, stating that “carbon intensity declined (i.e., improved) substantially over that period,” with a global decrease of 25% from 2015-2024. This measures the efficiency of economies in relation to carbon emissions and is used to track progress on decoupling (Target 8.4).

• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

  While not a single numerical indicator, the NDCs serve as a qualitative and quantitative indicator of national climate planning and ambition, directly related to Target 13.2. The article assesses the “probability that each country will keep its CO2 emissions under its NDC-1” and analyzes the impact of different scenarios based on countries meeting their NDC targets.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: nature.com