Report on Climate Change and Storm Trends in the United States

Introduction

As the United States prepares for another storm season, public discourse often links increasing hurricane and tornado activity to climate change. This report examines the data surrounding these claims, emphasizing the importance of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), in shaping effective and evidence-based climate policies.

Media Narratives and Political Responses

• Media frequently portrays storms as evidence of a warming Earth, urging immediate climate legislation.
• Politicians and social media amplify concerns about climate change-induced disasters, advocating for sweeping policy changes.
• These narratives align with the urgency of SDG 13 but require validation through scientific data to ensure sustainable and effective action.

Data Analysis on Storm Frequency and Intensity

1. Hurricanes:
   • Research by meteorologists Joe D’Aleo and Roy W. Spencer shows no significant increase in hurricane frequency or intensity in the U.S. since 1900.
   • Historic hurricanes such as the Great Galveston Hurricane (1900) and Hurricane Camille (1969) were among the most severe, predating significant CO2 emissions.
2. Tornadoes:
   • Data indicates a downward trend in the number of strong tornadoes (EF2-EF5) over the past 70 years.
   • An increase in recorded weak tornadoes (EF0-EF1) from 1950-1990 is attributed to improved detection technologies like Doppler radar, not an actual rise in occurrences.
   • Since 1990, weak tornado counts have stabilized, reflecting consistent detection capabilities.

Economic Factors Versus Meteorological Intensity

• Rising disaster damage costs are often misinterpreted as evidence of stronger storms.
• Economic growth, inflation, and increased property development contribute to higher damage valuations.
• Example comparisons:
  • An F3 tornado in a previously unoccupied field causes less economic damage than one hitting a developed area.
  • A home costing $25,000 in 1960 versus $25 million in 2020 experiences vastly different damage costs from the same storm intensity.
• Normalized data shows decreasing tornado damage costs and stable hurricane damage costs, challenging claims that climate change drives more destructive storms.

Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

• SDG 13 (Climate Action): Accurate data is essential to design effective climate policies that address real risks without succumbing to alarmism.
• SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities): Understanding economic and infrastructural vulnerabilities helps build resilient communities capable of withstanding natural disasters.
• SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure): Investment in detection technologies like Doppler radar improves disaster preparedness and response.
• SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth): Policies must balance environmental goals with economic realities to avoid unnecessary burdens on energy and transportation sectors.

Conclusion

Current scientific data does not support claims of increasing frequency or intensity of hurricanes and tornadoes due to climate change in the United States. While climate action remains a critical global priority, policy decisions must be grounded in empirical evidence to effectively contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals. Emphasizing human resilience and adaptive capacity aligns with sustainable development principles and ensures preparedness for natural disasters without politicizing weather events.

Authors

Diana Furchtgott-Roth, Director of the Center for Energy, Climate, and Environment at The Heritage Foundation, and Ryan Strasser, member of the Young Leaders Program.

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 13: Climate Action – The article discusses climate change, its impact on natural disasters such as hurricanes and tornadoes, and the political discourse surrounding climate legislation.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities – The article touches on economic growth, infrastructure development, and the impact of natural disasters on communities.
• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy – Indirectly referenced through discussions on climate legislation affecting electricity and transportation costs.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning.
2. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
   • Target 11.5: Reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected by disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and vulnerable.
   • Target 11.b: Increase the number of cities and human settlements adopting and implementing integrated policies and plans towards inclusion, resource efficiency, mitigation and adaptation to climate change.
3. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
   • Target 7.3: By 2030, double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Indicators related to SDG 13:
  • Number and intensity of hurricanes and tornadoes making landfall (frequency and severity of climate-related hazards).
  • Trend data on storm frequency and intensity over decades.
  • Normalized economic costs of natural disasters adjusted for inflation and economic growth.
• Indicators related to SDG 11:
  • Number of deaths and economic damage caused by natural disasters (tornadoes and hurricanes).
  • Extent of infrastructure and population growth in disaster-prone areas.
  • Implementation of policies and plans for disaster risk reduction and resilience.
• Indicators related to SDG 7:
  • Changes in electricity and transportation costs related to climate legislation.
  • Adoption rates of energy-efficient technologies and policies.

4. Table: SDGs, Targets and Indicators

Source: spokesman.com