Development Setbacks and Rising Conflict: Impact on Sustainable Development Goals

Overview of Conflict and Development Challenges

According to the World Bank’s comprehensive assessment released on June 27, 2025, conflict and instability have surged to a 25-year high, severely affecting 39 economies worldwide. These fragile and conflict-affected situations are undermining progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to poverty reduction, hunger, health, education, and economic growth.

Key Findings on Economic and Social Impacts

1. Economic Decline: Since 2020, per capita GDP in conflict-affected economies has contracted by an average of 1.8% annually, contrasting with a 2.9% expansion in other developing economies.
2. Extreme Poverty: In 2025, 421 million people in these economies live on less than $3 a day, exceeding the combined total in the rest of the world. This figure is projected to rise to 435 million by 2030, representing nearly 60% of the global extreme poor, impeding SDG 1 (No Poverty).
3. Employment Challenges: More than 270 million working-age individuals reside in these economies, yet only about half are employed, limiting progress toward SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).
4. Health and Life Expectancy: Average life expectancy is 64 years, seven years lower than in other developing countries, with infant mortality rates more than double, affecting SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being).
5. Food Security: Acute food insecurity affects 18% of the population, 18 times higher than in other developing economies, challenging SDG 2 (Zero Hunger).
6. Education Deficits: Ninety percent of school-age children fail to meet minimum reading standards, hindering SDG 4 (Quality Education).

Conflict Persistence and Economic Consequences

• Over 70% of people affected by conflict and instability are in Africa, with half of the affected countries experiencing these conditions for 15 years or more.
• High-intensity conflicts result in a cumulative GDP per capita decline of approximately 20% within five years.
• Conflict persistence hampers sustainable development and prolongs setbacks across multiple SDGs.

Importance of Conflict Prevention and Fragility Reduction

The report emphasizes that early conflict-warning systems and timely interventions are crucial to preventing violence and reducing fragility—defined as weaknesses in government institutions that impede sustained economic progress, peace, and justice. These efforts align with SDG 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions) and are more cost-effective than post-conflict responses.

Potential Advantages for Growth and SDG Achievement

• Natural Resource Wealth: Conflict-affected economies derive over 13% of GDP from natural resources, including minerals essential for renewable energy technologies, supporting SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure).
• Youthful and Expanding Population: The working-age population is projected to increase steadily, reaching nearly two-thirds by 2055, offering a demographic dividend opportunity if investments in education, health, infrastructure, and private sector development are prioritized.

Recommendations for Policy and International Support

1. Implement targeted policies to prevent conflict and strengthen governance structures.
2. Accelerate economic growth and job creation to keep pace with population growth.
3. Invest in education, health, and infrastructure to harness demographic advantages.
4. Enhance international cooperation to support fragile and conflict-affected economies in achieving the SDGs.

Conclusion

The World Bank’s analysis highlights that conflict and instability significantly impede progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals. Addressing these challenges requires coordinated global efforts focused on conflict prevention, institutional strengthening, and sustainable economic development to ensure no one is left behind.

Additional Resources

• Full Report: Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations and Vulnerabilities
• World Bank Global Economic Prospects
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1. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Addressed or Connected

1. SDG 1: No Poverty – The article highlights the rise in extreme poverty in conflict-affected economies, with 421 million people living on less than $3 a day and projections showing an increase to 435 million by 2030.
2. SDG 2: Zero Hunger – Acute food insecurity afflicts 18% of the population in these economies, 18 times higher than in other developing economies.
3. SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being – The article mentions lower life expectancy (64 years, seven years less than other developing economies) and infant mortality rates more than twice as high.
4. SDG 4: Quality Education – Ninety percent of school-age children in conflict-affected economies do not meet minimum reading standards.
5. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth – Economic stagnation, shrinking GDP per capita, and insufficient job creation to keep pace with population growth are emphasized.
6. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities – The concentration of extreme poverty and development setbacks in fragile and conflict-affected economies reflects growing inequalities.
7. SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions – The article discusses conflict frequency, fragility of institutions, and the need for conflict prevention and governance strengthening.
8. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals – The need for stronger international support and targeted policies implies the importance of global partnerships.

2. Specific Targets Under Those SDGs Identified

1. SDG 1 – Target 1.1: Eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere, currently measured as people living on less than $1.90 a day. The article discusses extreme poverty on less than $3 a day, indicating a focus on poverty eradication.
2. SDG 2 – Target 2.1: End hunger and ensure access to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food all year round. Acute food insecurity rates are highlighted.
3. SDG 3 – Target 3.1 and 3.2: Reduce maternal mortality and end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5. Infant mortality rates and life expectancy are discussed.
4. SDG 4 – Target 4.1: Ensure that all children complete free, equitable, and quality primary and secondary education. The low reading standards among school-age children are noted.
5. SDG 8 – Target 8.1 and 8.5: Sustain per capita economic growth and achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all. The article mentions shrinking GDP per capita and low employment rates.
6. SDG 10 – Target 10.1: Achieve and sustain income growth of the bottom 40% of the population at a rate higher than the national average. The concentration of poverty in conflict-affected economies implies inequality issues.
7. SDG 16 – Target 16.1 and 16.6: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates and develop effective, accountable, and transparent institutions. The article stresses conflict frequency and fragility of institutions.
8. SDG 17 – Target 17.9: Enhance international support to developing countries, including for capacity-building and development policy support. The article calls for stronger international support.

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied to Measure Progress

• Extreme Poverty Rate: Number of people living on less than $3 a day (421 million currently, projected 435 million by 2030).
• GDP per Capita Growth: Annual percentage change in per capita GDP (-1.8% in conflict economies vs. +2.9% elsewhere).
• Employment Rate: Percentage of working-age population employed (barely half employed in conflict-affected economies).
• Life Expectancy at Birth: Average life expectancy (64 years in conflict-affected economies, seven years less than others).
• Infant Mortality Rate: Deaths of infants under one year per 1,000 live births (more than twice as high in conflict economies).
• Food Insecurity Rate: Percentage of population facing acute food insecurity (18%).
• Education Achievement: Percentage of school-age children meeting minimum reading standards (only 10% meet standards).
• Conflict Intensity: Number of deaths per million people (high-intensity conflicts kill more than 150 per million).
• Duration of Conflict or Instability: Number of years a country has faced conflict or instability (half for 15 years or more).

4. Table: SDGs, Targets and Indicators

Source: worldbank.org