Report on the Impact of Geopolitical Conflict on Iran’s Agricultural Sector and Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

Recent geopolitical tensions have exposed the significant vulnerabilities of Iran’s agricultural sector, posing direct challenges to the nation’s progress toward several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). According to Alireza Emami, CEO of Zarrin Group, the conflict has disrupted supply chains, threatened food security, and highlighted pre-existing infrastructural weaknesses. This report analyzes these impacts through the lens of the SDGs, focusing on the urgent need for enhanced resilience, sustainable infrastructure, and responsible production to safeguard the nation’s food systems.

Analysis of Conflict-Induced Disruptions and SDG Implications

Impact on Food Security and Responsible Production (SDG 2 & SDG 12)

The conflict has directly undermined efforts to achieve SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) by destabilizing food availability and access. The primary disruptions include:

• Supply Chain Destabilization: Both international trade flows and domestic distribution networks were severely hampered, threatening national food security.
• Increased Food Loss: The evacuation of major urban centers and subsequent transportation delays led to significant spoilage of perishable goods, including fruit. This runs counter to SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), specifically Target 12.3, which aims to halve per capita global food waste at the retail and consumer levels and reduce food losses along production and supply chains.
• Supply and Demand Imbalance: Mass population movements created a mismatch between supply in agricultural regions and consumer demand in depopulated cities, leading to market inefficiencies and further waste.

Deficiencies in Infrastructure and International Partnerships (SDG 9 & SDG 17)

The crisis underscored critical weaknesses in national infrastructure and the consequences of limited international cooperation, impacting SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

1. Logistical Infrastructure Vulnerability: Operations at key ports slowed, revealing the fragility of trade infrastructure. Pre-existing sanctions had already crippled access to international shipping lines and reefer containers, making imports of certain goods nearly impossible and violating the spirit of global partnerships outlined in SDG 17.
2. Limited Trade Corridors: The reliance on a single active shipping route with India for refrigerated transport highlights a lack of resilient and diversified trade infrastructure, a key component of SDG 9.

Challenges to Decent Work and Economic Growth (SDG 8)

The conflict and its aftermath have created significant economic and labor market challenges, affecting progress on SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).

• Labor Force Shortages: The post-conflict deportation of Afghan migrants, who constituted a vital part of the agricultural workforce, has created a labor shortage. This disruption threatens the productivity and economic stability of the agricultural sector.
• Increased Operational Costs: Rising transportation costs and logistical inefficiencies place immense economic pressure on producers and distributors, hindering sustainable economic growth within the sector.

Strategic Recommendations for a Sustainable and Resilient Agricultural Future

Strengthening Domestic Capacity and Sustainability

In response to these vulnerabilities, a long-term strategy focused on self-reliance and sustainability is imperative. Zarrin Group’s commitment to research and development underscores a forward-looking approach. Key strategic priorities aligned with the SDGs include:

1. Enhancing Resilient Infrastructure (SDG 9): There is an urgent need to strengthen domestic infrastructure to withstand political and military shocks and reduce dependence on fragile international supply chains.
2. Boosting Sustainable Domestic Production (SDG 2): Reducing reliance on imports for goods where Iran has a comparative advantage is critical for ensuring national food security.
3. Advancing Water Management and Agronomy (SDG 6): Implementing modern agronomic practices and advancing water management, a core target of SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), has the potential to significantly expand cultivated areas and increase food production without over-exploiting scarce water resources.

Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger: The article directly addresses food security, disruptions to agricultural supply chains, food spoilage, and the overall vulnerability of the agriculture sector, which are central themes of SDG 2.
• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth: The text discusses economic shocks, disruptions to trade, and labor force challenges, such as the loss of migrant workers, which impact economic productivity and employment.
• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure: The article highlights the critical need for resilient infrastructure (ports, transportation) and the role of research, development, and modern technology (water management, agronomic practices) in strengthening the agricultural industry.
• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions: The core issue discussed is the impact of conflict (“recent conflict with Israel,” “Iran-Iraq War”) on society and the economy, directly linking to the goal of promoting peaceful societies. The effect of international sanctions also relates to the functioning of global institutions.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals: The article touches upon disruptions in international trade and partnerships, such as the cessation of cooperation by international shipping companies due to sanctions, and the impact on global commodity markets (oil, fertilizer).

What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 2: Zero Hunger

   • Target 2.1: End hunger and ensure access by all people to safe, nutritious and sufficient food. The article highlights how conflict poses “significant threats to food security” and disrupts supply chains, jeopardizing access to food.
   • Target 2.4: Ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices. The article underscores the “vulnerability of the agriculture sector to political and military shocks,” pointing to the urgent need for more resilient practices to ensure stable production.
   • Target 2.c: Adopt measures to ensure the proper functioning of food commodity markets. The article describes how conflict “disrupted domestic supply chains,” created “inequality between supply and demand,” and led to concerns over the “cost of fertiliser,” all of which relate to market instability.

2. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   • Target 8.2: Achieve higher levels of economic productivity through diversification, technological upgrading and innovation. The article mentions that Zarrin Group “has consistently prioritised research and development” and points to “advances in water management and the adoption of modern agronomic practices” as ways to boost the sector.
   • Target 8.5: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all. The article identifies a major challenge to this target with the “mass deportation of Afghan migrants,” which led to the “loss of this affordable labour force” and made “access to manpower increasingly difficult.”

3. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

   • Target 9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure. The article explicitly states the “urgent need to strengthen infrastructure” after highlighting how conflict caused “operations at key ports temporarily slowed” and how sanctions made reefer container transport “virtually impossible” except through limited routes.
   • Target 9.a: Facilitate sustainable and resilient infrastructure development in developing countries. The article illustrates the challenges in achieving this, noting that “international shipping companies equipped with reefer containers have ceased cooperation with Iran due to sanctions,” hindering infrastructure-related trade.

4. SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

   • Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere. The entire article is premised on the negative consequences of the “recent conflict with Israel” and the historical “Iran-Iraq War,” demonstrating how violence directly undermines development and stability.

5. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

   • Target 17.11: Significantly increase the exports of developing countries. The article discusses how conflict and sanctions “disrupt trade flows,” affecting Iran’s role as a “key exporter” of fertiliser and its ability to import goods like bananas.
   • Target 17.13: Enhance global macroeconomic stability. The article notes that the conflict led to warnings that “oil prices could exceed US$100 a barrel,” an event that would impact global macroeconomic stability.

Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. SDG 2: Zero Hunger

   • Indicator (Implied): Food loss. The article explicitly mentions that “traffic congestion and delays caused by city evacuations resulted in large quantities of fruit being spoiled in transit.” This serves as a direct indicator of food loss in the supply chain.
   • Indicator (Implied): Food price volatility. The article points to factors that influence food prices, such as rising “transportation costs” and concerns over the “cost of fertiliser.”

2. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   • Indicator (Implied): Labor force participation/shortage. Progress can be measured by tracking access to labor, which the article identifies as a challenge due to the “loss of this affordable labour force” following the deportation of migrants.

3. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

   • Indicator (Implied): Disruption in transport and logistics. This is indicated by reports of “operations at key ports temporarily slowed” and the fact that “international shipping companies equipped with reefer containers have ceased cooperation with Iran.”
   • Indicator (Implied): Agricultural land utilization. The article suggests progress could be measured by the country’s ability to “quadruple the country’s cultivated area” through better water management and technology.

4. SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

   • Indicator (Implied): Economic impact of conflict. The entire article serves as a qualitative report on the economic and social costs of conflict, such as disrupted supply chains, spoiled goods, and displaced populations (“evacuation of major cities”).

5. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

   • Indicator: Global commodity prices. The article explicitly mentions a potential indicator: “oil prices could exceed US$100 a barrel.”
   • Indicator (Implied): Volume of trade in goods. This is implied through the discussion of disruptions to both imports (“banana imports from South America and the Philippines”) and exports (Iran as a “key exporter” of fertiliser).

Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: fruitnet.com