Report on Iran’s Water Crisis and its Conflict with Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

Iran is confronting a severe water crisis that poses a significant threat to its environmental stability, social fabric, and economic future. This crisis stems from a combination of prolonged drought, systemic mismanagement, and unsustainable resource exploitation. The current situation represents a profound failure to achieve key United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to water, ecosystems, and sustainable production. The nation’s policies have prioritized short-term objectives, such as food self-sufficiency and infrastructure development, at the expense of long-term hydrological and ecological balance, leading to a potential civilizational-level catastrophe.

The State of Water Scarcity: A Direct Challenge to SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation)

Iran’s failure to ensure the sustainable management of water resources, a core target of SDG 6, is evident in its alarming hydrological statistics. The country is experiencing a critical imbalance between water supply and demand, driven by both climatic factors and overconsumption.

Critical Water Deficits

• Precipitation Decline: A 40% decrease in precipitation compared to the long-term average has been recorded, marking the fifth consecutive year of drought.
• High Evaporation: Up to 75% of the 260 billion cubic meters of annual precipitation is lost to evaporation, leaving only 85 billion cubic meters usable.
• Depleted Runoff and Recharge: Surface runoff has fallen to 45 billion cubic meters, while groundwater recharge is below 40 billion cubic meters.

Unsustainable Groundwater Extraction

The overexploitation of groundwater resources directly contravenes the principles of SDG 6, which calls for the protection and restoration of water-related ecosystems.

• Annual Overdraft: With a national consumption of 100 billion cubic meters, Iran has an annual water deficit, with 55% of its water drawn from non-renewable underground aquifers.
• Cumulative Deficit: The cumulative groundwater deficit has surged from 1 billion cubic meters in 1979 to 145 billion cubic meters.
• Projected Depletion: Projections indicate that half of Iran’s accessible groundwater could be depleted by 2031, with central provinces experiencing declines of one meter annually.

Ecological Collapse and the Violation of SDG 15 (Life on Land)

The water crisis has precipitated a widespread ecological collapse, undermining efforts to meet SDG 15, which aims to halt biodiversity loss and desertification and protect terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems.

Disappearing Aquatic Ecosystems

Iran’s iconic wetlands and rivers, crucial for biodiversity and regional climate stability, are facing extinction.

• Major Water Bodies at Risk: Lake Urmia, Zayandeh-Rud, Hamun, and Hoor al-Azim are severely degraded.
• Dried Wetlands: Ecosystems such as Gavkhouni, Bakhtegan, and Jazmourian have already dried up completely.

Land Degradation and Desertification

The consequences of water mismanagement are accelerating land degradation, a primary concern of SDG 15.

• Soil Subsidence: Over 300 plains across the country are experiencing significant subsidence due to groundwater depletion.
• Dust Storms and Salinity: The disappearance of wetlands has led to an increase in dust storms and rising soil salinity, rendering land infertile.

Agricultural Inefficiency: Contradicting SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production)

The agricultural sector is the primary driver of Iran’s water crisis. Its operational model is in direct conflict with the goals of sustainable agriculture (SDG 2) and responsible production patterns (SDG 12).

Inefficient Water Use in Agriculture

Despite consuming 90% of the nation’s water resources (90 billion cubic meters annually), the agricultural sector’s productivity is exceptionally low.

1. Iran’s Water Efficiency: 1,400 grams of produce per cubic meter of water. Factoring in 30% post-harvest losses, the real efficiency drops to 1,080 grams.
2. Global Average Efficiency: 2,500 grams per cubic meter.
3. Developed Countries’ Efficiency: 3,500 grams per cubic meter.

Unsustainable Policies and Virtual Water Exports

Government policies have created perverse incentives that exacerbate water depletion.

• Subsidized Production: Heavy subsidies encourage the cultivation of water-intensive crops like rice and sugarcane in arid regions.
• Virtual Water Export: Due to technological backwardness and inefficient practices, Iran effectively exports its scarce water resources in the form of agricultural products, undermining its long-term food and water security.

Systemic Policy Failures and Their Impact on Sustainable Development

The crisis is rooted in systemic policy failures that ignore the principles of sustainable development, affecting SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).

Destructive Infrastructure and Governance

State-led projects, often managed without environmental oversight, have been catastrophic.

• Aggressive Dam Construction: The construction of 90 dams in the Lake Urmia basin between 2005 and 2015, many by the IRGC, has choked off essential water inflows.
• Urban Water Stress: Dams supplying Tehran are at emergency levels (Lar at 7% capacity, Mamloo at 20%), threatening the water security of millions and putting SDG 11 at risk.

Misaligned Economic and Population Policies

There is a severe misalignment between resource allocation and economic contribution, hindering progress toward SDG 8.

• Economic Imbalance: Industry uses 2 billion cubic meters of water to contribute 30% to GDP, while agriculture uses 46 times more water (90 billion cubic meters) for only an 11% GDP contribution.
• Unsustainable Population Goals: The state’s policy to increase the population to 150 million is incompatible with projected renewable water supplies of 85-95 billion cubic meters, ensuring future crises.

Conclusion: A Man-Made Crisis Threatening National Viability

Iran’s water crisis is not merely a consequence of climate change but a man-made disaster resulting from decades of systemic mismanagement. Inefficient agriculture, destructive infrastructure policies, and the pursuit of unsustainable economic and demographic goals have shattered the country’s hydrological balance. By failing to adhere to the principles of the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 6, SDG 15, and SDG 12, the regime’s policies have placed the nation on a trajectory toward profound environmental and social collapse, constituting a civilizational crisis that threatens the future of Iran.

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger – The article discusses agricultural production, food self-sufficiency policies, and crop yields, which are central to food security.
• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation – This is the core theme of the article, which details Iran’s water crisis, including water scarcity, groundwater depletion, mismanagement of water resources, and the decline of aquatic ecosystems.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities – The article highlights the impact of water scarcity on urban areas, specifically mentioning water stress in Tehran and the potential for water rationing.
• SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production – The article points to unsustainable consumption patterns, particularly the inefficient use of water in agriculture (90% of total consumption) and the concept of exporting “virtual water.”
• SDG 13: Climate Action – Although the article emphasizes mismanagement, it acknowledges climate-related factors such as a “40% decrease in precipitation,” “rising temperatures,” and the “fifth consecutive year of drought.”
• SDG 15: Life on Land – The article explicitly describes the degradation of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, including the drying of lakes and wetlands, soil subsidence, and desertification.
• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions – The crisis is attributed to “systemic mismanagement,” “destructive national policies,” and poor decision-making by state institutions, highlighting a failure in governance.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

SDG 2: Zero Hunger

• Target 2.3: By 2030, double the agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers. The article shows Iran is far from this target, with water efficiency in agriculture (“1,400 grams of produce per cubic meter of water”) lagging behind the global average (“2,500 grams”).
• Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices. The article describes Iran’s agricultural system as unsustainable, relying on over-extraction of groundwater, cultivating water-intensive crops in arid regions, and causing “soil and environmental degradation.”

SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

• Target 6.4: By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity. The article directly addresses the failure to meet this target, citing that Iran consumes “100 billion cubic meters” of water while having only “85 billion cubic meters” of usable resources, leading to a massive groundwater deficit.
• Target 6.5: By 2030, implement integrated water resources management at all levels. The article points to a complete lack of integrated management, describing “misaligned priorities” between industry and agriculture, and “destructive” dam construction policies that ignore environmental impacts.
• Target 6.6: By 2020, protect and restore water-related ecosystems, including mountains, forests, wetlands, rivers, aquifers and lakes. The article provides clear evidence of regression on this target, stating that ecosystems like “Lake Urmia, Zayandeh-Rud, Hamun, and Hoor al-Azim are facing extinction” and wetlands like “Gavkhouni, Bakhtegan, and Jazmourian have already dried up.”

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

• Target 11.5: By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct economic losses relative to global gross domestic product caused by disasters, including water-related disasters. The article indicates a rising risk of a water-related disaster in urban centers, noting that dams supplying “Tehran” are at emergency levels (“Lar (7% capacity) and Mamloo (20%)”) and the capital “may soon face water rationing.”

SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production

• Target 12.2: By 2030, achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources. The article highlights the inefficient use of water, with agriculture consuming “90% of Iran’s water resources” for only “11%” of GDP, while industry uses far less for a larger contribution. The export of water-intensive goods is described as an export of “virtual water,” a highly inefficient use of a scarce natural resource.

SDG 15: Life on Land

• Target 15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services. The article shows this target has been missed, with the drying up of major lakes and wetlands leading to “dust storms, soil subsidence, and increasing salinity.”
• Target 15.3: By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought and floods, and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world. The article describes widespread land degradation, stating that “more than 300 plains across the country are experiencing subsidence” due to groundwater overuse.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Level of water stress: The article provides data showing severe water stress. Annual consumption is “100 billion cubic meters,” while renewable and usable supply is only “85 billion cubic meters.”
• Change in the extent of water-related ecosystems: The article explicitly mentions the drying up of “Lake Urmia, Zayandeh-Rud, Hamun,” and wetlands like “Gavkhouni, Bakhtegan, and Jazmourian,” serving as a direct indicator of ecosystem collapse.
• Water-use efficiency: A specific indicator for agricultural efficiency is provided: “1,400 grams of produce per cubic meter of water,” which can be tracked against the global average (“2,500 grams”). The “real efficiency of just 1,080 grams” after post-harvest losses is also a key metric.
• Groundwater depletion: The article provides several indicators for this, including the cumulative groundwater deficit (“145 billion cubic meters”), annual overuse (“5–6 billion cubic meters”), and the rate of decline in central provinces (“annual groundwater declines of one meter”).
• Dam water capacity: The capacity levels of dams supplying Tehran (“Lar (7% capacity) and Mamloo (20%)”) are clear indicators of urban water security.
• Proportion of land degraded: The fact that “more than 300 plains across the country are experiencing subsidence” is an indicator of widespread land degradation.
• Precipitation data: The “40% decrease in precipitation” compared to the previous year is a key climate and water availability indicator.

4. Create a table with three columns titled ‘SDGs, Targets and Indicators” to present the findings from analyzing the article.

Source: irannewsupdate.com