Historical Cold Peaks Monday/Tuesday Midwest to Southeast U.S. – Climate Impact Company

Report on U.S. Weather Anomalies and Sustainable Development Goal Implications

Date of Issue: November 9, 2025

This report analyzes an exceptional early-season cold air outbreak in the United States, assessing its meteorological drivers and its direct implications for several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including Climate Action (SDG 13), Zero Hunger (SDG 2), Good Health and Well-being (SDG 3), Affordable and Clean Energy (SDG 7), and Sustainable Cities and Communities (SDG 11).

Meteorological Synopsis and Short-Term Forecast

An anomalous cold air mass is forecast to develop over the U.S. Midwest and propagate rapidly towards the Gulf States. This event is characterized by a significant deviation from climatological norms and is accompanied by substantial winter precipitation in specific regions.

Key Weather Developments:

1. Temperature Anomalies: Temperatures are projected to challenge century-old records. The most significant negative anomalies are expected on Monday and Tuesday.
   • Monday Morning: Portions of Arkansas will experience temperatures 22°F below normal.
   • Monday Afternoon: East Tennessee will be approximately 27°F below normal.
   • Tuesday Morning: Northern Florida will see temperatures drop to near freezing (32°F), with anomalies exceeding 20°F below normal.
2. Precipitation: Early-season lake-effect snow is forecast, which will amplify the cold conditions.
   • Primary impact zones for heavy snow include Northeast Illinois, Northwest Indiana, and areas downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
3. Causative Factors: The weather pattern is attributed to an intense negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO). This atmospheric state, featuring high pressure over Greenland, is linked to the significant heat release from the late-October Category 5 Major Hurricane Melissa, highlighting the interconnectedness of extreme weather events, a key concern under SDG 13 (Climate Action).

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Impacts

The forecast weather event presents considerable challenges to the achievement of multiple SDGs. The severity and timing of the cold outbreak underscore the need for resilient systems to mitigate its socio-economic and environmental impacts.

Impact Assessment by SDG:

• SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): Widespread Freeze Warnings across the Mid-South and a Freeze Watch in the Carolinas pose a direct threat to agricultural productivity. An unseasonable freeze can lead to significant crop loss, affecting food supply chains, farmer livelihoods, and regional food security.
• SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being): The rapid onset of extreme cold creates significant public health risks, particularly for vulnerable populations. Exposure to such temperatures can lead to hypothermia and exacerbate chronic health conditions, placing stress on emergency and healthcare services.
• SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy): The severe cold will trigger a substantial increase in energy demand for residential and commercial heating. This surge can strain energy grids and lead to higher utility costs, impacting energy affordability for low-income households and testing the resilience of the energy infrastructure.
• SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities): Heavy, plowable snow in urban areas such as Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana will disrupt transportation, close public services, and require significant resources for snow removal. This highlights the critical need for robust municipal planning and infrastructure capable of withstanding extreme weather events.
• SDG 13 (Climate Action): This event, driven by atmospheric responses to an unusually intense major hurricane, serves as a tangible example of the climate volatility and extreme weather patterns that climate change exacerbates. It reinforces the urgency for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies to build resilience against such events.

Medium-Range Outlook

Following this severe cold intrusion, medium-range forecasts indicate a trend toward warmer temperatures across much of the affected region. However, persistent cooler conditions are anticipated for the Western U.S. and New England, suggesting a continued period of regional climate variability.

Relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  The article directly addresses SDG 13 by focusing on the impacts of climate-related phenomena. It discusses an “exceptional cold spike,” “century-old previous records” being challenged, and links this extreme weather event to a “category-5 major hurricane.” This highlights the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, which is a core concern of climate action.

• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

  The report is relevant to SDG 11 as it details threats to human settlements. The issuance of “Freeze Warning’s,” “Freeze Watch,” and advisories for “heavy plowable snow” directly relates to the safety and resilience of communities in the Midwest, Gulf States, and Carolinas. These events impact infrastructure, transportation, and the well-being of urban and rural populations.

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger

  The article connects to SDG 2 by implying a significant threat to food production and agriculture. The “Freeze Warning’s” covering the “Mid-south U.S.” and extending to “Northern Florida” indicate a risk of crop damage from an early-season frost. Such weather events can disrupt food supply chains and impact agricultural sustainability, which are key aspects of this goal.

• SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

  SDG 3 is relevant because extreme cold poses direct health risks, such as hypothermia and frostbite. The weather report, by providing early warnings about dangerously low temperatures (“middle teens Wisconsin/Illinois,” “20’s in the Ohio Valley”), serves as a tool for public health protection, helping people take precautions to avoid negative health outcomes.

Specific SDG Targets

1. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.

   The article exemplifies this target through its function as a climate information service. The detailed forecast of an “exceptional cold spike” and the mention of official alerts from “NOAA/NWS weather watch, warning, and advisory areas” are practical examples of systems designed to strengthen resilience and help communities adapt to climate-related hazards.

2. Target 11.5: By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct economic losses relative to global gross domestic product caused by disasters…

   The report’s focus on an impending natural disaster (the cold blast and heavy snow) is directly aligned with this target. By providing advance notice, the information helps to mitigate the potential for loss of life and economic damage. The detailed mapping of affected areas from the “Midwest U.S. rapidly spreading to the Gulf States” helps define the population that could be affected.

3. Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather…

   The article underscores the vulnerability of agricultural systems to extreme weather. The “Freeze Warning’s” and the forecast of temperatures reaching “near 32F” in “Northern Florida” highlight the urgent need for resilient agricultural practices that can withstand such climate shocks, which is the core aim of Target 2.4.

4. Target 3.d: Strengthen the capacity of all countries… for early warning, risk reduction and management of national and global health risks.

   The entire weather report acts as an early warning mechanism for a potential public health risk associated with extreme cold. The specific temperature forecasts (“low temperatures

Implied Indicators for Measuring Progress

• Indicator for Target 13.1: Existence and dissemination of early warning systems for climate-related hazards.

  The article itself is an example of such a system. It explicitly mentions the “NOAA/NWS weather watch, warning, and advisory areas” and disseminates specific alerts like “Freeze Warning’s” and “Freeze Watch.” The issuance and public availability of this report can be seen as a measure of adaptive capacity.

• Indicator for Target 11.5: Geographic coverage of disaster warnings.

  The article provides data that could be used for this indicator by detailing the specific regions affected by the weather event. It describes the cold front “developing in the Midwest U.S. rapidly spreading to the Gulf States” and a “Freeze Watch” extending “eastward across the Carolinas,” thereby indicating the scope of the population under alert.

• Indicator for Target 2.4: Impact of extreme weather on agricultural regions.

  The report implies a way to measure this by identifying key agricultural areas under threat. The mention of “Freeze Warning’s” in the “Mid-south U.S.” and freezing temperatures reaching “Northern Florida” provides specific geographic data points to assess the vulnerability and resilience of food production systems in those areas.

• Indicator for Target 13.1 / 3.d: Tracking the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

  The article provides qualitative and quantitative data for this indicator. It describes the event as an “exceptional cold spike” and notes that “Temperatures challenge century-old previous records.” It also quantifies the anomaly, stating parts of Arkansas will be “22F cooler than normal.” Furthermore, it links the event to a “category-5 major hurricane,” providing another data point on the intensity of climate-related hazards.

Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: climateimpactcompany.com