Report on Declining School Enrollment in San Diego County and its Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction: A Challenge to Sustainable Development

A significant decline in student enrollment across San Diego County’s public schools presents a multifaceted challenge to regional sustainability, directly impacting the achievement of several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Over the past decade, a 5% countywide decrease, translating to 27,004 fewer students, has strained educational institutions. This trend, mirrored statewide, is not a temporary anomaly but a systemic issue rooted in complex socio-economic factors. The consequences threaten the foundations of SDG 4 (Quality Education), create pressures related to SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and reflect underlying challenges in SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being), and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

Analysis of Enrollment Decline Drivers

Socio-Economic Pressures on Communities

The primary drivers of declining enrollment are external economic and demographic forces that compromise the sustainability of local communities, a core tenet of SDG 11.

• Cost of Living: San Diego’s status as one of the nation’s most expensive regions is a critical factor. The sharp increase in housing costs, with average rent for a one-bedroom apartment rising 41% from 2019 to 2024 and home prices more than doubling in a decade, has made the region unaffordable for many families. This economic pressure forces families to relocate, directly impacting school enrollment and undermining efforts to build inclusive and sustainable communities.
• Demographic Shifts: A 20% decline in the birth rate in San Diego County since 2014 reflects a statewide and national trend. This fundamental demographic shift means there is a smaller population of school-aged children, a challenge that educational institutions cannot directly control but must adapt to for long-term planning.

These factors disproportionately affect working-class communities, exacerbating issues related to SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) as families are displaced in search of affordable living conditions.

Environmental and Health Factors (SDG 3)

Public health and environmental conditions have emerged as significant, localized drivers of enrollment decline, directly impacting SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being).

• In the South Bay Union district, the ongoing Tijuana River sewage crisis has created what researchers term a “hazardous environment.”
• Fear of health repercussions for children has reportedly prompted families to move, contributing to the district’s severe enrollment decline of 29%. This illustrates a direct link between environmental degradation and the stability of community institutions like schools.

Impact on Quality Education and Infrastructure (SDG 4 & SDG 8)

Reduction in Funding and Educational Resources

The decline in student numbers directly undermines the delivery of SDG 4 (Quality Education) by eroding the financial and operational base of schools.

1. Funding Cuts: Since school funding is tied to enrollment, fewer students result in significant budget reductions.
2. Program Elimination: Reduced funding leads to the elimination of academic and extracurricular programs, limiting opportunities for the remaining students.
3. Staffing Reductions: Districts are forced to reduce teaching staff, impacting teacher-to-student ratios and leading to job losses, which relates to SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).

Physical Infrastructure and Institutional Contraction

The physical landscape of public education is being reshaped by the enrollment crisis. At Millennial Tech Middle School, for example, a planned three-story classroom and STEM facility was progressively scaled down and ultimately canceled due to a 19% drop in enrollment over a decade. This contraction of essential infrastructure is a direct impediment to providing modern, quality learning environments as envisioned by SDG 4.

Regional Disparities and Institutional Responses (SDG 11 & SDG 16)

Divergent Trends and Uneven Impacts

The impact of declining enrollment is not uniform across the county. While 36 of 43 districts have lost students, the severity varies. Some districts in wealthier coastal areas (Del Mar, -20%) and working-class communities (National Elementary, -25%) have seen severe declines. Concurrently, enrollment in charter schools, particularly large virtual schools, has increased by 41%, indicating a shift in the educational landscape but not offsetting the overall decline in district-run schools.

Strategic Responses and Governance Challenges

School districts, as key local institutions, face significant governance challenges that test the principles of SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions).

• School Closures: Districts like South Bay Union have been forced to make difficult decisions to close schools, often facing strong community opposition. This process requires transparent and participatory decision-making to maintain public trust.
• Proactive Strategies: In an innovative approach to address the root causes, San Diego Unified is pursuing the development of affordable housing on district-owned properties. This strategy is a direct attempt to influence the affordability crisis and stabilize communities, aligning with the goals of SDG 11.

Future Projections and Long-Term Outlook

Forecasted Declines and Systemic Implications

State projections indicate the trend will worsen. The temporary enrollment boost from the rollout of Universal Transitional Kindergarten (UTK) has masked underlying declines in other grades and is now ending. Long-term forecasts predict a further loss of over 50,000 students in San Diego County in the next decade and a total decline of nearly 140,000 students by 2044 from 2014 levels. Such a contraction would necessitate widespread school closures and a significant reduction in the education workforce.

Conclusion: A Call for Sustainable Planning

The declining enrollment in San Diego County is a critical issue for sustainable development. It is a symptom of broader economic, demographic, and environmental pressures that challenge the region’s ability to provide Quality Education (SDG 4) within Sustainable Communities (SDG 11). Addressing this trend requires a multi-sectoral approach that moves beyond the education system to tackle core challenges of affordability, public health, and equitable development. Acknowledging the reality of these numbers is the first step for all stakeholders in developing resilient and sustainable solutions for the future of public education.

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

SDG 4: Quality Education

The article’s central theme is the decline in student enrollment in San Diego public schools and its consequences, such as reduced funding, program cuts, fewer teachers, and the cancellation of infrastructure projects. This directly relates to ensuring inclusive and equitable quality education.

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

The article explicitly identifies the “sky-high cost of living,” particularly housing costs, as a primary driver for families leaving the region. This connects to the goal of making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable, with a focus on affordable housing.

SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

The article mentions the Tijuana River sewage crisis as a reason families are leaving, citing fears of “ramifications on their children’s health” due to pollution. This links the issue to ensuring healthy lives and promoting well-being, specifically by reducing illnesses from environmental contamination.

SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

The Tijuana River sewage crisis is described as a source of pollution creating a “hazardous environment.” This directly involves the goal of ensuring the availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation, particularly by improving water quality and reducing pollution.

SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

The article notes that enrollment declines disproportionately affect certain areas, including “more working-class communities, like National Elementary… or Lemon Grove.” The resulting school closures and resource reductions in these areas can exacerbate existing inequalities.

SDG 1: No Poverty

The “affordability crisis” and the high cost of living are forcing families to relocate. While not explicitly measuring poverty, these economic pressures are directly related to the broader goal of ensuring families can afford a decent standard of living, a key aspect of poverty reduction.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

SDG 4: Quality Education

1. Target 4.2: “By 2030, ensure that all girls and boys have access to quality early childhood development, care and pre-primary education…” The article discusses the state’s rollout of “universal transitional kindergarten” for 4-year-olds, which directly aligns with this target by expanding access to pre-primary education.
2. Target 4.a: “Build and upgrade education facilities that are child, disability and gender sensitive and provide safe, non-violent, inclusive and effective learning environments for all.” The article mentions the renovation at Millennial Tech, including a new administration center and a planned STEM facility. It also highlights how declining enrollment led to the cancellation of a planned three-story classroom building, showing a direct impact on this target. The purchase of air purifiers to mitigate pollution also relates to providing a safe learning environment.

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

1. Target 11.1: “By 2030, ensure access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing…” The article heavily emphasizes the lack of affordable housing as a root cause of declining enrollment, citing that “the average cost to buy a home has more than doubled in a decade.” San Diego Unified’s initiative to “create more than one thousand affordable housing units” is a direct action toward this target.

SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

1. Target 3.9: “By 2030, substantially reduce the number of deaths and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water and soil pollution and contamination.” The article links family relocation to the Tijuana River sewage crisis, which has created a “hazardous environment” and fears about “children’s health,” directly connecting to this target.

SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

1. Target 6.3: “By 2030, improve water quality by reducing pollution, eliminating dumping and minimizing release of hazardous chemicals and materials…” The sewage crisis mentioned in the article is a clear example of water pollution that fails to meet this target, impacting the community’s well-being and decisions to live there.

SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

1. Target 10.2: “By 2030, empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all…” The article points out that enrollment declines and subsequent school closures hit “more working-class communities” harder, which can lead to the social and educational exclusion of children in those areas, running counter to this target.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

SDG 4: Quality Education

• Enrollment decline rates: The article provides specific figures, such as a “19 percent” drop at Millennial Tech and a “5-percent decline” countywide over a decade. These numbers directly measure the challenge to maintaining a robust education system.
• Number of school closures: The plan to “close one elementary school” in South Bay Union is a direct indicator of the negative impact on educational access.
• Enrollment in pre-primary education: The introduction of “universal transitional kindergarten” and the “influx” of new 4-year-old students serve as an indicator for Target 4.2.
• Investment in school facilities: The construction of a “new administration center” and “STEM facility” versus the cancellation of a “three-story building” are indicators of the resources available for Target 4.a.

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

• Housing cost metrics: The article provides concrete data points like a “41 percent” increase in average rent and the doubling of the average home cost, which are direct indicators of housing affordability (Target 11.1).
• Number of affordable housing units: The plan to “create more than one thousand affordable housing units” is a quantifiable indicator of progress toward Target 11.1.

SDG 3 & SDG 6: Health and Clean Water

• Environmental quality: The description of the sewage crisis as a “‘hazardous environment'” implies the use of environmental monitoring data (air/water quality) as an indicator for Targets 3.9 and 6.3.
• Health-related migration: The fact that families are “chased away” due to fear of health ramifications is an indirect indicator of the severity of the environmental health risk.

Demographic Indicators

• Birth rates: The statistic that “San Diegans gave birth to 20 percent fewer children than in 2014” is a key indicator explaining the long-term enrollment decline.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: kpbs.org