Analysis of Post-Pandemic Public School Enrollment and Its Impact on Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction: Enrollment Declines and Parental Concerns

A systematic analysis of public school enrollment data from Massachusetts through fall 2024, contextualized with national data from fall 2023, reveals a sustained decline in enrollment. This trend is closely linked to growing parental dissatisfaction with public school environments. These findings have significant implications for the achievement of key United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 4 (Quality Education), SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities), and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions).

National Enrollment Trends

The enrollment patterns observed in Massachusetts are representative of broader national trends, indicating a systemic issue rather than a localized one. The data highlights specific demographic and grade-level shifts.

• Public school enrollment nationwide was 2.8 percent below predicted levels by fall 2023.
• Massachusetts experienced a comparable 2.6 percent drop by fall 2024.
• Enrollment declines were most pronounced among white and Asian students.
• By grade level, the most significant drops occurred in preschool/kindergarten and middle school grades.

Challenges to SDG 4: Quality Education

The decline in enrollment and satisfaction directly threatens the core mission of SDG 4, which aims to ensure inclusive and equitable quality education for all. The deterioration of the learning environment is a primary driver, undermining educational quality.

1. Decreased Satisfaction: Between 2019 and 2025, the proportion of Americans and K-12 parents satisfied with public education fell by 12 percentage points.
2. Negative Perceptions: By 2024, the percentage of parents believing K-12 education is heading in the wrong direction reached a decade high, indicating a crisis of confidence.
3. Chronic Absenteeism: A key indicator of disengagement, chronic absenteeism in Massachusetts rose from 13 percent in 2019 to 20 percent in 2024, mirroring national data and compromising consistent educational delivery.

Erosion of SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

SDG 16 calls for peaceful and inclusive societies and strong institutions. The rise in disruptive and violent behavior within schools indicates a weakening of public schools as safe, foundational institutions. This instability is a major factor in parents seeking alternative schooling options.

Reported Post-Pandemic Behavioral Issues

• Acts of disrespect toward teachers.
• A sharp increase in physical fights between students, particularly in middle schools.
• Reported instances of hate crimes and bullying.
• Widespread classroom disruptions from misconduct and unsanctioned cell phone use.
• A 10-percentage point increase between 2019 and 2024 in parents fearing for their child’s physical safety at school.
• By late 2024, 72 percent of educators reported that student behavior was worse than in 2019.

Setbacks for SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

The demographic nature of the enrollment shift poses a direct challenge to SDG 10, which seeks to reduce inequality. The exodus of specific student populations from the public system risks creating a more segregated and less equitable educational landscape.

The “sustained exodus of higher-income, white, and Asian families” from public schools is a critical concern. This trend may lead to a concentration of socio-economic challenges in public schools, exacerbating inequalities and undermining the goal of an inclusive society where quality education is accessible to all, regardless of background.

Conclusion: Long-Term Implications for Public Education

The sustained shift in enrollment away from traditional public schools, particularly in the middle grades, is not a temporary adjustment but reflects fundamental changes in parental priorities. The search for safer and less disrupted learning environments is driving families toward private schools and homeschooling. This trend raises critical questions about the long-term viability of the public education system as an engine for achieving quality education (SDG 4), reducing inequality (SDG 10), and fostering peaceful societies through strong institutions (SDG 16).

SDGs Addressed in the Article

• SDG 4: Quality Education

  The article directly addresses this goal by focusing on public school enrollment trends, parental satisfaction with education, and the quality of the learning environment. It discusses issues like access to preschool, elementary, and secondary education, and highlights major concerns about the safety and effectiveness of learning environments, which are central to achieving quality education.

• SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

  This goal is relevant because the article points out disparities in educational experiences and outcomes among different demographic groups. It specifically mentions that enrollment drops vary by race and income, highlighting an “exodus of higher-income, white, and Asian families” from public schools, which points to growing inequality in access to or preference for certain types of education.

• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

  The article connects to this goal through its extensive discussion of safety and violence within schools. The rise in physical fights, bullying, hate crimes, and general fear for student safety reflects a breakdown of peace and safety within the educational institution, which is a key concern of SDG 16, particularly its target on reducing violence.

Specific SDG Targets Identified

1. SDG 4: Quality Education

   • Target 4.1: Ensure that all girls and boys complete free, equitable and quality primary and secondary education.

     The article relates to this target by discussing the “sustained decline in public school enrollment” across elementary, middle, and high school grades. The drop in enrollment and parental dissatisfaction suggest challenges in providing “quality” education that leads to “effective learning outcomes.”

   • Target 4.2: Ensure that all girls and boys have access to quality early childhood development, care and pre-primary education.

     This target is directly addressed when the article states that “preschool/kindergarten… grades experienced major drops” in enrollment. This indicates a decline in access to or participation in pre-primary education.

   • Target 4.a: Build and upgrade education facilities… and provide safe, non-violent, inclusive and effective learning environments for all.

     The article provides substantial evidence related to this target. It highlights a lack of safe learning environments by citing parents’ fears for their child’s “physical safety at school,” and reports from school leaders about “physical fights between students, hate crimes, bullying, rowdiness in hallways, and classroom disruptions.”

2. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

   • Target 10.2: Empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of… race, ethnicity… or economic or other status.

     The article points to inequalities in the education system by noting that “enrollment drops were substantially larger for white and Asian students than for Hispanic and Black students” and a “sustained exodus of higher-income, white, and Asian families.” This suggests that educational experiences and choices are diverging along racial and economic lines, undermining inclusion.

3. SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

   • Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere.

     This target is relevant due to the article’s focus on violence within schools. The mention of “physical fights between students, hate crimes, bullying” and a 10-percentage-point rise in parents fearing for their child’s “physical safety at school” directly corresponds to the challenge of reducing violence in the school environment.

Indicators for Measuring Progress

1. SDG 4: Quality Education

   • Public school enrollment rates:

     The article mentions that “Fall 2023 public school enrollment nationwide was 2.8 percent below predicted levels.” It also specifies enrollment changes by grade level (e.g., “preschool/kindergarten and middle school grades experienced major drops”).

   • Parental satisfaction with education:

     An indicator is the “fraction of Americans reporting satisfaction with public education,” which “dropped by 12 percentage points” between 2019 and 2025.

   • Chronic absenteeism rate:

     The article provides a specific metric: “In 2024, 20 percent of Massachusetts students were chronically absent compared to 13 percent in 2019.”

   • Perception of student safety:

     This is measured by the “fraction of K–12 parents who said they fear for their child’s physical safety at school,” which “rose by 10 percentage points between 2019 and 2024.”

   • Educator perception of student behavior:

     A clear indicator is the survey finding that “72 percent of surveyed teachers, principals, and district leaders reported that student behavior was worse than it had been in 2019.”

2. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

   • Enrollment data disaggregated by race:

     The article implies this indicator by stating that “enrollment drops were substantially larger for white and Asian students than for Hispanic and Black students.”

3. SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

   • Incidence of violence and negative behaviors in schools:

     While not providing a single number, the article implies this indicator through reports from a “national sample of school leaders” on increases in “physical fights between students, hate crimes, bullying, rowdiness in hallways, and classroom disruptions.”

Summary Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: educationnext.org