Impact Analysis of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act on Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction

The “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act (OBBBA), based on former President Donald Trump’s agenda and nearing final votes in the U.S. Congress, poses significant threats to clean energy projects, jobs, and energy costs across the United States. This report analyzes the potential consequences of the legislation with a focus on its implications for the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), and SDG 13 (Climate Action).

Threats to Clean Energy Projects and Employment

1. The OBBBA threatens approximately 4,500 clean energy projects, risking hundreds of thousands of jobs in renewable energy deployment, manufacturing of clean technologies, batteries, electric vehicles (EVs), and associated supply chains.
2. Energy Innovation’s peer-reviewed energy policy simulator forecasts a loss of up to 840,000 jobs by 2030 due to the termination of clean energy tax credits and other legislative elements.
3. Wellesley College Environmental Studies Department documented 29 canceled, postponed, or scaled-back clean energy projects since January 20, 2021, putting over 21,000 potential jobs at risk and affecting $21.6 billion in private investment.

Economic and Energy Cost Implications

• The bill is projected to add billions of dollars annually to energy costs for Americans within five years, with some states like South Carolina facing annual energy bill increases of $770 million.
• By raising costs for renewable energy and battery storage, the legislation is expected to increase reliance on more expensive fossil fuels, driving up electricity prices nationwide.
• Removal of incentives for electric vehicles will contribute to higher long-term transportation fuel costs.

Regional Impact and Industry Slowdown

The “battery belt” states in the Southeast and Midwest, including Georgia, Kentucky, and South Carolina, have experienced the most significant setbacks in battery manufacturing investments, critical for maintaining U.S. competitiveness in the global clean tech market.

• These states are projected to suffer substantial job losses and economic disadvantages due to increased costs and reduced incentives.
• Clean energy investment cancellations and delays in these regions undermine SDG 8 by limiting decent work opportunities and economic growth in emerging industries.

Global Competitiveness and Climate Action Concerns

• The OBBBA’s rollback of clean energy support risks ceding global leadership in clean technology to other countries, notably China, which continues to invest heavily in clean energy and electrification.
• This shift undermines SDG 13 by potentially increasing greenhouse gas emissions due to higher fossil fuel use and slowing the transition to sustainable energy systems.
• Energy Innovation warns that the U.S. may lose its foothold in one of the fastest-growing global industries, impacting long-term sustainable development and climate goals.

Summary of Key Findings

1. Job Losses: Up to 840,000 jobs at risk in clean energy sectors by 2030.
2. Investment Impact: $21.6 billion in private clean energy investments jeopardized.
3. Energy Costs: Significant increases in electricity and transportation fuel costs nationwide.
4. Regional Effects: Battery manufacturing hubs in the Southeast and Midwest disproportionately affected.
5. Global Market Position: U.S. risks losing leadership in clean technology innovation and manufacturing.

Conclusion

The “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act presents substantial challenges to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals related to clean energy, economic growth, and climate action. By threatening clean energy projects and jobs, increasing energy costs, and undermining U.S. competitiveness in the global clean tech market, the legislation could hinder progress toward a sustainable and equitable energy future. Policymakers are urged to consider these impacts carefully to align U.S. energy policy with the SDGs and global climate commitments.

1. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Addressed or Connected

1. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
   • The article discusses the impact of legislation on clean energy projects, renewable energy deployment, and energy costs.
2. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
   • Job losses in clean energy sectors and manufacturing due to the bill are highlighted.
3. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
   • The article mentions clean technology manufacturing, battery production, and investments in advanced technologies.
4. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • The legislation’s impact on climate policy, clean energy incentives, and fossil fuel use is discussed.

2. Specific Targets Under Those SDGs Identified

1. SDG 7 Targets
   • Target 7.2: Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
   • Target 7.a: Enhance international cooperation to facilitate access to clean energy research and technology.
2. SDG 8 Targets
   • Target 8.5: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including youth and persons with disabilities, and equal pay for work of equal value.
   • Target 8.2: Achieve higher levels of economic productivity through diversification, technological upgrading and innovation.
3. SDG 9 Targets
   • Target 9.4: Upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable, with increased resource-use efficiency and greater adoption of clean and environmentally sound technologies.
   • Target 9.b: Support domestic technology development, research and innovation in developing countries.
4. SDG 13 Targets
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied to Measure Progress

1. SDG 7 Indicators
   • Proportion of population with access to electricity (implied through energy costs and access to clean energy).
   • Renewable energy share in the total final energy consumption (implied by the share of solar, wind, and batteries in new generating capacity).
2. SDG 8 Indicators
   • Unemployment rate, by sex, age and persons with disabilities (implied by job losses in clean energy sectors).
   • Growth rate of real GDP per employed person (implied through economic impact of clean energy investments).
3. SDG 9 Indicators
   • Research and development expenditure as a proportion of GDP (implied by investments in clean technology and manufacturing).
   • Manufacturing value added as a proportion of GDP (implied by clean tech manufacturing and battery production).
4. SDG 13 Indicators
   • Greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP (implied by increased fossil fuel use and reduced clean energy incentives).
   • Number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction strategies (implied by dismantling of federal climate policy).

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: newsweek.com