Executive Summary

This report analyzes the role of prefabricated construction as a key strategy for the low-carbon transformation of China’s construction sector, directly addressing several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The study evaluates the Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction (ECER) efficiency of the industry, a critical component for achieving SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and SDG 13 (Climate Action). Due to a lack of official data, this analysis utilized crawler technology to gather essential indicators. The methodology combines the super-efficiency slack-based measure (SBM) model with the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework and threshold regression models to identify key drivers and their impacts. Key findings indicate that while China’s overall ECER efficiency is improving, significant regional disparities persist. The prefabrication rate, policy effectiveness, and technological innovation (measured by patent applications) are primary drivers of efficiency, aligning with SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure). Notably, the study reveals a double-threshold effect for both prefabrication rates and policy effectiveness. Optimal ECER outcomes are achieved when the prefabrication rate is maintained between 50% and 60%. Beyond this range, the environmental benefits diminish, highlighting a crucial insight for promoting SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production). This report provides a theoretical and decision-making framework for authorities to formulate quantifiable policies that enhance the construction industry’s contribution to global sustainability targets.

1. Introduction: Aligning Construction with Sustainable Development Goals

The construction industry is a significant contributor to global carbon emissions, posing a substantial challenge to achieving SDG 13 (Climate Action). In response, prefabricated construction has emerged as a transformative industrial paradigm, offering a pathway toward green and low-carbon development. This method supports the principles of SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) by promoting industrialization and standardization, and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) by enabling more sustainable building practices. Prefabrication offers advantages in material savings, energy conservation, and water conservation, which are central to SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production). However, the environmental benefits are not consistently realized, and a lack of official data has limited comprehensive research. This report addresses this gap by quantitatively analyzing the impact of prefabricated building development on ECER efficiency in China’s construction sector. The objective is to identify the main influencing factors, study their threshold effects, and provide evidence-based recommendations to optimize the industry’s alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals.

2. Analytical Framework and Methodology

Measuring ECER Efficiency for SDG 7 and SDG 13

To assess the performance of the construction industry in contributing to SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 13 (Climate Action), this study employed the super-efficiency Slack-Based Measure (SBM) model. This model evaluates the ECER efficiency of 30 regions in China from 2005 to 2019 by considering a comprehensive set of indicators.

• Inputs: Capital, labor, and resource inputs (including water, electricity, and major energy sources).
• Desirable Outputs: Total output value and completed floor area of the construction industry.
• Undesirable Outputs: Carbon emissions and inhalable particulate matter, representing the negative environmental externalities.

Identifying Key Drivers via the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) Framework

The study utilizes the TOE framework to categorize the factors influencing ECER efficiency, providing a holistic view that aligns with multiple SDGs.

• Technology (SDG 9): The level of technological advancement, measured by the number of patent applications in prefabricated construction.
• Organization (SDG 12): The scale and operational methods of the industry, measured by the prefabrication rate, number of industrial bases, new construction area, and production capacity.
• Environment (SDG 17): The external context, including government support and institutional standards, measured by policy effectiveness.

Data Acquisition and Threshold Analysis

Given the scarcity of official statistics on prefabricated construction, this study utilized web scraping technology to compile a multi-source database from industry websites and government reports. To analyze the complex, non-linear relationships between the key drivers and ECER efficiency, a threshold regression model was constructed. This model is particularly effective for identifying critical turning points where the impact of a factor, such as the prefabrication rate, changes significantly.

3. Key Findings on Sustainability Performance

National and Regional ECER Efficiency Trends

The analysis reveals that China’s construction industry’s ECER efficiency demonstrates a fluctuating growth trend, with the national average efficiency ranging between 0.6 and 0.8. This indicates that while progress is being made, there is substantial room for improvement to meet the targets of SDG 11 and SDG 13. Furthermore, significant regional disparities exist, with developed eastern regions showing much higher efficiency than western regions, highlighting a need for balanced national development strategies.

Critical Factors for Sustainable Transformation

Cointegration analysis identified three key factors with a long-term, stable relationship with ECER efficiency:

1. Prefabrication Rate (Organizational): A direct measure of the adoption of modern construction methods, crucial for advancing SDG 12.
2. Policy Effectiveness (Environmental): The role of government standards and incentives in creating an enabling environment for sustainable industry, reflecting the importance of partnerships under SDG 17.
3. Patent Applications (Technological): An indicator of innovation, which is fundamental to upgrading industry and infrastructure as envisioned in SDG 9.

The Threshold Effect: Optimizing for Maximum Impact

The threshold regression model uncovered non-linear effects, providing critical insights for policymaking.

• Prefabrication Rate: A double-threshold effect was identified. The promotion of ECER efficiency is strongest when the prefabrication rate is between 51% and 62%. Below this range, the effect is positive but weaker. Above 62%, the positive effect diminishes significantly, likely because current production technologies and supply chains are not efficient enough to support higher rates without generating excessive waste and emissions. This finding is vital for setting realistic targets under SDG 12.
• Policy Effectiveness: This factor also exhibits a double-threshold effect. While initially very effective, the positive impact of policies on ECER efficiency weakens as policy density increases. This suggests a point of diminishing returns, where simply adding more regulations becomes less effective than refining existing ones. This underscores the need for adaptive governance as part of SDG 17.

4. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations for Advancing the SDGs

Prefabricated construction is a vital tool for the construction sector’s sustainable transformation, but its environmental benefits are conditional on optimized implementation strategies. To maximize the industry’s contribution to the Sustainable Development Goals, this report proposes the following evidence-based recommendations:

1. Regulate Prefabrication Rates for Optimal Outcomes (SDG 12 & SDG 13): Rather than pursuing ever-higher prefabrication rates, authorities should formulate guidelines to maintain rates within the empirically determined optimal range of 50-60%. This will ensure that the method delivers maximum ECER benefits without being undermined by inefficiencies in the production stage.
2. Enhance Technological Innovation and Capacity (SDG 9): To overcome the current technological limitations, governments and industry should increase investment in R&D for green building materials, intelligent production, and efficient supply chains. This will raise the efficiency threshold, allowing higher prefabrication rates to become environmentally beneficial in the future.
3. Develop Adaptive and Effective Policies (SDG 17): Policymakers should recognize the diminishing returns of policy saturation. The focus should shift from the quantity of regulations to their quality and adaptability. Policies must evolve with the industry’s technological and managerial maturity to ensure they remain effective drivers of ECER efficiency.
4. Promote Balanced Regional Development (SDG 11): The significant efficiency gap between eastern and western regions must be addressed. A national strategy promoting knowledge sharing, technology transfer, and targeted financial support for less-developed regions is needed to ensure an equitable and comprehensive transition to sustainable construction practices across the country.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article on prefabricated construction’s role in energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER) in the construction industry connects to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The core themes of low-carbon transformation, resource efficiency, technological innovation, and sustainable industrial practices are central to the following goals:

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

  The article’s primary focus is on “energy-saving and emission-reduction efficiency (ECER)” and achieving a “low-carbon transformation in the construction sector.” It directly addresses the need for greater energy efficiency in a high-consumption industry, which is a cornerstone of SDG 7.

• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

  The paper examines prefabricated construction as a transformative and innovative industrial process (“characterized by standardization, industrialization, and large-scale production methods”). It analyzes the role of technology (“number of patent applications”), policy, and infrastructure (industrial bases) in making the construction industry more sustainable and efficient, which aligns directly with the aims of SDG 9.

• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

  The construction industry is fundamental to urban development. By focusing on reducing carbon emissions, inhalable particulate matter, and construction waste, the article addresses the environmental impact of building activities in cities. Promoting “green construction” and more sustainable building methods contributes to making human settlements more sustainable, resilient, and environmentally friendly, as targeted by SDG 11.

• SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production

  Prefabricated construction is presented as a method that offers “significant advantages in terms of material savings, energy conservation, and water conservation.” The article discusses reducing “construction waste,” the “consumption of five major building materials,” and the overall resource footprint of the industry. This focus on decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation and promoting resource efficiency is central to SDG 12.

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  The entire premise of the study is to evaluate a strategy for climate change mitigation. The article explicitly links the construction industry to China’s “carbon peak target by 2030” and focuses on reducing “carbon emissions” and “greenhouse gas emissions.” It analyzes how policies and industrial practices can be optimized to fight climate change, which is the core mission of SDG 13.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

   • Target 7.3: By 2030, double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency.
     
     Explanation: The article is centered on evaluating and improving the “energy-saving and emission-reduction efficiency (ECER)” of the construction industry. It states that prefabricated construction provides “significant advantages in terms of… energy conservation” and that technological progress can “improve energy efficiency.” The entire study is an effort to find ways to enhance energy efficiency in this sector.

2. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

   • Target 9.4: By 2030, upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable, with increased resource-use efficiency and greater adoption of clean and environmentally sound technologies and industrial processes.
     
     Explanation: The article promotes prefabricated construction as a “transformative paradigm” for “green and low-carbon development.” It analyzes the “prefabrication rate” as a measure of adopting this cleaner process and discusses how it leads to “material savings” and reduced emissions, directly aligning with the goal of retrofitting an industry with cleaner technology.
   • Target 9.5: Enhance scientific research, upgrade the technological capabilities of industrial sectors in all countries… encouraging innovation and substantially increasing the number of research and development workers.
     
     Explanation: The study identifies the “number of patent applications” as a key factor influencing ECER efficiency, using it as a proxy for technological advancement and innovation. It recommends improving the “technological level of prefabricated construction” and achieving “breakthroughs in key prefabricated construction technologies” to enhance sustainability.

3. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

   • Target 11.6: By 2030, reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities, including by paying special attention to air quality and municipal and other waste management.
     
     Explanation: The research measures “undesired outputs” of the construction industry, including “carbon emissions” and “inhalable particulate matter,” which directly affect urban air quality. It also highlights that prefabrication can lead to a “52% reduction in construction waste,” addressing the waste management aspect of this target.

4. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production

   • Target 12.2: By 2030, achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources.
     
     Explanation: The article explicitly mentions that prefabricated construction offers “significant advantages in terms of material savings, energy conservation, and water conservation.” It analyzes the “consumption of five major building materials” and energy as key inputs, seeking to minimize them through better industrial processes.
   • Target 12.5: By 2030, substantially reduce waste generation through prevention, reduction, recycling and reuse.
     
     Explanation: A key benefit of prefabrication cited in the article is its potential for waste reduction. It references a study where prefabrication led to a “52% reduction in construction waste compared to traditional construction methods,” directly contributing to this target.

5. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.
     
     Explanation: The study analyzes “policy effectiveness” as a critical factor influencing the construction industry’s ECER efficiency. It examines how “national policies and standards” and government regulations are driving the adoption of low-carbon construction methods, demonstrating the integration of climate goals into industrial policy.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article mentions and utilizes several quantitative and qualitative indicators to measure progress towards the identified targets.

1. Indicators for SDG 7 & 13 (Energy Efficiency & Climate Action)

   • Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction (ECER) Efficiency: This is the central dependent variable of the study, calculated using a super-efficiency SBM model. It serves as a composite indicator for progress on energy efficiency and emission reduction.
   • Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions: The article provides a specific formula (Eq. 4) to calculate CO2 emissions from the construction sector, treating it as a key “undesired output.” This is a direct indicator for climate action.
   • Energy Consumption: The study includes the “consumption of eight major energy sources” and “electricity consumption” as input indicators, which can be used to track progress in energy conservation.

2. Indicators for SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation & Infrastructure)

   • Prefabrication Rate: This is a core independent variable, defined as the “percentage of prefabricated components used in construction.” It acts as an indicator for the adoption of cleaner, more industrialized, and innovative construction processes.
   • Number of Patent Applications: This is explicitly used as an indicator to measure the “degree of technological advancement” and innovation within the prefabricated construction field.
   • Number of Industrial Bases: This indicator is used to measure the scale and development of the industrial infrastructure supporting prefabricated construction.

3. Indicators for SDG 11 & 12 (Sustainable Cities & Responsible Consumption)

   • Reduction in Construction Waste: The article explicitly quantifies this, citing a “52% reduction” as a potential benefit, making it a clear indicator for waste reduction (Target 12.5).
   • Consumption of Building Materials: The model includes the “consumption of five major building materials such as steel and wood” as an input, which serves as an indicator for resource and material efficiency (Target 12.2).
   • Inhalable Particulate Matter: Mentioned as an “undesired output” alongside carbon emissions, this serves as an indicator for urban air quality and the environmental impact of cities (Target 11.6).
   • Policy Effectiveness: The article develops a quantitative score for “policy effectiveness” based on the number and type of government standards and regulations. This can be seen as an indicator for the implementation of sustainable urban and industrial policies (Target 13.2).

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: nature.com