China’s Soaring Emissions Are Upending Climate Politics – The New York Times

The United States, Europe, and China’s Historical Emissions

The United States’ Historical Emissions

1. The United States has burned more fossil fuels than anywhere else in history.

Europe’s Historical Emissions

1. Europe has long ranked No. 2 in total historical greenhouse gas emissions.

China’s Rise in Emissions

1. China’s astonishing rise is upending the dynamic of historical responsibility for global warming.
2. Over the past three decades, China has built more than 1,000 coal-fired power plants as its economy has grown more than 40-fold.
3. China has become the largest annual emitter of greenhouse gases in the world.

China’s Catching Up to the United States

1. The United States has pumped more total planet-warming pollution into the atmosphere since the 19th century.
2. Last year, China surpassed Europe as the second-largest historical emitter.
3. China’s historical emissions are projected to approach those of the United States in the coming years.

A Question of Money

1. Wealthy places like the United States and Europe have had the biggest historical responsibility for global warming.
2. Discussions at the United Nations climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, focus on raising funds for vulnerable nations to shift to clean energy and cope with the impacts of climate change.
3. The question of where the money should come from is a major point of contention.
4. Wealthy, industrialized countries have traditionally been called upon to provide financial aid.
5. Leaders from the United States and European Union are calling on China to contribute more climate finance.

A Different Way to Look at Emissions

1. Total emissions per capita are another metric to consider in issues of fairness.
2. China’s historical emissions per capita are still lower than those of the United States, European Union, Japan, and Canada.
3. India’s historical emissions per person are relatively small due to its large population and relatively low development.
4. Affluent oil- and gas-producing nations like Saudi Arabia and Qatar have disproportionately large emissions per capita.

Methodology

• Data for carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions from 1850 to 2023 is from Jones et al (2024).
• Data for 2024 is from Carbon Brief.
• Projected data for 2025 to 2100 is based on the International Energy Agency’s “stated policies scenario”.
• European Union totals were calculated for the current 27 member countries.
• Lines show cumulative territorial CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, cement, land use, land use change, and forestry.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

1. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning
   • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning
   • Target 13.8: Promote mechanisms to raise capacity for planning and management in least developed countries and small island developing states
   • Indicator 13.1.1: Number of deaths, missing persons, and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
   • Indicator 13.2.1: Number of countries that have integrated mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning into their national policies, strategies, and planning
   • Indicator 13.3.1: Number of countries that have communicated the strengthening of institutional, systemic, and individual capacity-building to implement adaptation, mitigation, and technology transfer
   • Indicator 13.8.1: Number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction strategies

2. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

   • Target 17.1: Strengthen domestic resource mobilization, including through international support to developing countries, to improve domestic capacity for tax and other revenue collection
   • Target 17.3: Mobilize additional financial resources for developing countries from multiple sources
   • Target 17.9: Enhance international support for implementing effective and targeted capacity-building in developing countries
   • Indicator 17.1.1: Total government revenue as a proportion of GDP, by source
   • Indicator 17.3.1: Foreign direct investment, official development assistance, and South-South cooperation as a proportion of total domestic budget
   • Indicator 17.9.1: Dollar value of financial and technical assistance (including through North-South, South-South, and triangular cooperation) committed to developing countries

Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Analysis

1. SDG 13: Climate Action

   The article addresses the issue of historical greenhouse gas emissions and the responsibility for global warming. SDG 13, which focuses on climate action, is relevant to this issue. The article highlights the need to strengthen resilience, integrate climate change measures into policies, improve education and awareness, and promote capacity-building in planning and management.

   The specific targets under SDG 13 that can be identified based on the article’s content are:

   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning
   • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning
   • Target 13.8: Promote mechanisms to raise capacity for planning and management in least developed countries and small island developing states

   The article mentions the need to stop global warming and the responsibility of wealthy places like the United States and Europe in taking the lead to address it. It also discusses China’s rise as the largest annual emitter of greenhouse gases and its commitment to peak emissions this decade. These align with the targets under SDG 13.

   The indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets are:

   • Indicator 13.1.1: Number of deaths, missing persons, and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
   • Indicator 13.2.1: Number of countries that have integrated mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning into their national policies, strategies, and planning
   • Indicator 13.3.1: Number of countries that have communicated the strengthening of institutional, systemic, and individual capacity-building to implement adaptation, mitigation, and technology transfer
   • Indicator 13.8.1: Number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction strategies

2. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

   The article discusses the issue of raising trillions of dollars for vulnerable nations to shift to clean energy and cope with the impacts of climate change. SDG 17, which focuses on partnerships for the goals, is relevant to this issue. The article highlights the need for international support, financial resources, and capacity-building in developing countries.

   The specific targets under SDG 17 that can be identified based on the article’s content are:

   • Target 17.1: Strengthen domestic resource mobilization, including through international support to developing countries, to improve domestic capacity for tax and other revenue collection
   • Target 17.3: Mobilize additional financial resources for developing countries from multiple sources
   • Target 17.9: Enhance international support for implementing effective and targeted capacity-building in developing countries

   The article mentions the traditional approach of wealthy, industrialized countries providing financial aid to developing countries. It also discusses the need for China to contribute more climate finance and the call for an expanded donor base. These align with the targets under SDG 17.

   The indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets are:

   • Indicator 17.1.1: Total government revenue as a proportion of GDP, by source
   • Indicator 17.3.1: Foreign direct investment, official development assistance, and South-South cooperation as a proportion of total domestic budget
   • Indicator 17.9.1: Dollar value of financial and technical assistance (including through North-South, South-South, and triangular cooperation) committed to developing countries

Source: nytimes.com