Occupational Carbon Footprints and Exposure to Climate Transition Risks: A Global Perspective Aligned with Sustainable Development Goals

Abstract

The urgent transition to a low-carbon economy poses significant climate transition risks to workers, particularly those in high carbon footprint occupations. This report traces occupational carbon footprints along global value chains and estimates associated exposure to climate transition risks. The global volume of occupational carbon footprints is increasing, driven mainly by the expansion of primary labour inputs. Considerable territorial and occupational variations exist in carbon footprints both in total volume and per worker. Drivers, craft workers, and machine operators, especially in emerging countries, are most vulnerable to climate transition risks. The findings support targeted policies to protect vulnerable workers, contributing to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), notably SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 13 (Climate Action).

Introduction

With increasingly stringent climate legislation, workers face heightened climate transition risks. For example, coal miners may need to shift to alternative employment if fossil fuel use declines following international agreements such as the UAE consensus at COP28¹. Occupations with high exposure to climate transition risks typically have greater occupational carbon footprints, encompassing direct and indirect emissions from labour inputs^{2, 3}. Recognizing occupational carbon footprints is essential for green labour market transformation and identifying vulnerable workers⁴. However, global production fragmentation complicates carbon footprint calculations^{6, 7}, and comprehensive occupational assessments from a global value chain perspective remain limited⁸.

Methodological Approaches

Occupational carbon footprints can be evaluated using life cycle assessments, including bottom-up process analysis and top-down input-output models^{9, 10}. The top-down input-output approach, with its comprehensive system boundary, is suitable for global tracing of occupational carbon footprints^{13, 14}. Despite widespread population classification by occupation, occupation-specific carbon footprint evaluations remain scarce¹⁸.

Climate Risks to Workers

Climate change imposes both physical risks (e.g., heat stress, sea level rise) and transition risks (costs from shifting to a green economy) on workers^{25, 26}. Transition risks, linked to carbon pricing and regulatory changes, are expected to have greater near-term impacts. Previous studies have assessed occupational exposure based on task “brownness” or “greenness”^{4, 27}, but value chain perspectives are less explored.

Results

Temporal Trends of Occupational Carbon Footprints

Global occupational carbon footprints rose from 6,893.5 Mt CO₂ in 2000 to 10,018.2 Mt in 2018, representing 34.6% of global emissions. The main driver is the expansion of primary labour inputs. Craft workers and machine operators, largely engaged in carbon-intensive sectors, accounted for 28.7% of occupational carbon footprints in 2018 and exhibited the largest growth (963.7 Mt increase). Efficient production in these occupations is critical for meeting climate mitigation targets aligned with SDG 13.

Driving Factors of Change

1. Scale Effect: Growth in labour input scale increased footprints by 21.1% (2000–2006).
2. Intensity Effect: Decrease in carbon intensity offset footprints by 12.8% (2000–2006).
3. Structure Effect: Minor changes in occupational structure (0.04%).
4. Industrial Linkage Effect: Moderate influence (4.0%).

Subsequent periods showed varying contributions from these factors, with policymakers urged to promote green workforce transitions.

Spatial Patterns of Occupational Carbon Footprints

In 2018, China had the highest occupational carbon footprint volume (2,988.7 Mt), followed by the United States (1,773.8 Mt) and the European Union (1,039.7 Mt). Developed countries generally have higher per-worker carbon footprints, with Australia leading due to high per capita emissions. Occupational footprints vary by country and sector, reflecting value chain positions and industrial specialization.

• Managers and Engineers: Higher footprints in the US and EU due to upstream value chain roles.
• Craft Workers and Machine Operators: Largest footprints in China, reflecting manufacturing dominance.
• Drivers: High per-worker footprints, especially in fossil fuel-dependent countries.

Occupational Exposure to Climate Transition Risk

Drivers, representing 3.0% of the workforce, face the highest climate transition risk from both impact and likelihood perspectives. Transition in transportation is vital for climate mitigation (SDG 13), and drivers are sensitive to rising fossil fuel costs. Craft workers and machine operators also face significant risks due to carbon-intensive production and limited career mobility. Agricultural workers, although numerous, currently face lower carbon pricing risks due to policy gaps.

Regional Variations in Risk Exposure

• Emerging economies exhibit higher carbon price risks due to greater carbon intensity and lower current regulation.
• Developed economies show occupational and territorial heterogeneity, with US workers facing higher risks than EU counterparts.
• Climate policies in developed regions, especially the EU, provide more occupational protection measures than in emerging countries.

There is a mismatch between risk exposure and protective measures, particularly in emerging economies, highlighting the need for enhanced occupational protections in climate policies.

Discussion

This study underscores the interconnection between SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 13 (Climate Action) by quantifying occupational carbon footprints globally. Understanding these footprints empowers workers to engage in climate action and supports the development of a climate-aligned labour market. Governments have implemented measures such as heat subsidies and carbon tax rebates to mitigate climate risks, but these often focus on direct exposures in developed countries.

Recognizing that occupational climate risks arise from entire value chains, not just direct activities, is crucial for effective policy. For example, phasing out fossil fuels in manufacturing impacts coal mining employment. Collaboration among businesses and value chain partners is essential for comprehensive carbon footprint management.

Transitioning workers to greener jobs requires tailored support:

• For occupations with transferable skills (e.g., drivers): Career counseling and guidance.
• For occupations with barriers to transition (e.g., coal miners): Upskilling, retraining, and subsidies.
• For resilient occupations: Support green industry development to prevent displacement.

Future research should refine occupational carbon footprint assessments at firm levels, extend analysis to smaller emerging economies, explore diverse climate risks beyond carbon pricing, and incorporate micro-level employment determinants.

Methods

Calculation of Occupational Carbon Footprints

The study employs a global input-output model covering 67 economies and 45 sectors, integrating occupational data for 13 occupational groups. Using the Leontief input-output framework, the model traces direct and indirect carbon emissions enabled by occupational value added along global value chains. Occupational carbon footprints per worker are derived by dividing total footprints by employment numbers.

Evaluation of Exposure to Climate Transition Risks

Climate transition risk is assessed from two dimensions:

1. Risk Impact: Ratio of potential carbon footprint mitigation cost to occupational wage revenue, reflecting economic burden.
2. Risk Likelihood: Share of occupational carbon footprints sourced from sectors covered by carbon pricing regulations.

Normalization of these metrics identifies occupations most vulnerable to climate transition risks. The study also reviews 351 climate policies with worker protection measures across 26 regions to evaluate policy coverage.

Data and Code Availability

• Data sources include OECD-ICIO input-output tables, OECD employment and income data, carbon emissions databases, and carbon pricing information from ICAP and IMF.
• Climate policy measures are derived from the Global Climate Change Mitigation Policy Dataset.
• Data and code for occupational carbon footprint calculations are publicly available for academic use at https://figshare.com/s/ccab6ee05ee04a4592be.

Conclusion

This comprehensive analysis highlights the critical role of workers in climate change mitigation and the necessity of integrating occupational considerations into climate policies. Aligning labour market transitions with climate goals supports the achievement of SDG 8 and SDG 13, fostering sustainable economic growth and climate resilience globally.

1. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Addressed or Connected

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • The article focuses on the occupational carbon footprints and the exposure of workers to climate transition risks, directly relating to climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts.
   • It discusses the need for transitioning to a low-carbon economy and controlling carbon emissions across global value chains.
2. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
   • The article highlights the impact of climate transition on workers, especially vulnerable occupations such as drivers, craft workers, and machine operators.
   • It emphasizes the importance of protecting workers, promoting green jobs, upskilling, retraining, and ensuring decent work conditions during the green transition.

2. Specific Targets Under the Identified SDGs

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning.
     • The article’s analysis of occupational carbon footprints and transition risks supports informed policy-making for climate action.
   • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning.
     • The article encourages worker engagement and awareness of environmental impacts linked to their economic activities.
2. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
   • Target 8.5: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all women and men, including young people and persons with disabilities, and equal pay for work of equal value.
     • The article discusses protecting vulnerable workers from climate transition risks and promoting green jobs.
   • Target 8.7: Take immediate and effective measures to eradicate forced labor, end modern slavery and human trafficking, and secure the prohibition and elimination of the worst forms of child labor.
     • While not explicitly mentioned, the focus on decent work and worker protection implies alignment with this target.
   • Target 8.8: Protect labor rights and promote safe and secure working environments for all workers.
     • The article highlights the need for occupational protection measures in climate policies.

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied to Measure Progress

1. Occupational Carbon Footprints
   • Measured as the amount of carbon emissions enabled by the value added generated by each occupation.
   • Used to assess the volume and per worker carbon footprints across occupations, sectors, and economies.
2. Exposure to Climate Transition Risk
   • Risk Impact Indicator: The ratio of potential carbon footprint mitigation cost to the wage revenue of an occupation.
   • Risk Likelihood Indicator: The share of an occupation’s carbon footprints sourced from sectors covered by carbon pricing regulations.
   • Normalized values of these indicators ((hat{alpha}) and (hat{beta})) are used to identify vulnerable occupations.
3. Carbon Price Levels and Coverage
   • Current and projected carbon price levels (e.g., $185 per tonne CO₂) are used to estimate mitigation costs.
   • Coverage of carbon pricing regulations across sectors is used to assess likelihood of climate transition risk.
4. Number of Occupational Protection Measures in Climate Policies
   • Count of policy measures targeting protection of specific occupations against climate transition risks.
   • Used to evaluate the alignment between climate risks and policy protections across regions and occupations.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: nature.com