Report on the Sustainable Management of Malania oleifera in the Context of Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Executive Summary

This report details the ecological and economic significance of Malania oleifera, a vulnerable and nationally protected plant species in China, and analyzes the profound impacts of climate change on its survival. Utilizing the MaxEnt model with 126 distribution records and 19 environmental variables, the study identifies key factors influencing the species’ habitat, including soil texture and specific climatic conditions. Projections under future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) indicate a significant contraction of suitable habitats and a southeastward shift of its core distribution area. These findings underscore an urgent threat to biodiversity, directly impacting the achievement of SDG 15 (Life on Land). The report proposes a strategic framework for conservation and sustainable utilization, aligning with SDG 13 (Climate Action) and other related goals, to ensure the long-term resilience of this valuable species.

Species Profile and Contribution to Sustainable Development

Malania oleifera is a tertiary relict plant endemic to China, narrowly distributed in the fragile karst forest ecosystems of Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guizhou. As a species listed as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List, its conservation is paramount. The plant offers multifaceted contributions to sustainable development:

• SDG 15 (Life on Land): It plays a critical role in ecological restoration and maintaining biodiversity in karst regions, which are susceptible to desertification. Its conservation directly supports target 15.5 (halt biodiversity loss).
• SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being): The species is the richest known plant source of nervonic acid, a compound with significant therapeutic potential for neurological conditions like dementia, contributing to target 3.4 (promote mental health and well-being).
• SDG 1 (No Poverty) & SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth): The high value of nervonic acid, along with its use in timber and traditional medicine, presents opportunities for developing sustainable industries that can provide economic benefits and livelihoods for local communities.
• SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production): The development of artificial cultivation and sustainable harvesting practices for M. oleifera is essential for creating a responsible production chain that meets market demand without depleting wild resources.

Analysis of Suitable Habitats and Environmental Drivers

Current Distribution and Key Environmental Factors

Under current conditions, the total potential suitable habitat for M. oleifera is estimated at 9.6 × 10⁴ km², primarily concentrated in southwestern Guangxi and southeastern Yunnan. The MaxEnt model identified six dominant environmental variables that collectively determine the species’ distribution. These findings are crucial for implementing targeted conservation actions under SDG 15.1 (conservation and sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems).

1. Topsoil USDA Texture Classification (t_usda_tex): A preference for clay soil is the most significant factor.
2. Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (Bio18): Optimal range is 606–882 mm.
3. Isothermality (Bio03): A measure of temperature stability, with a preferred range of 33.1–43.5.
4. Precipitation of Driest Quarter (Bio17): Optimal range is 40.7–67.2 mm.
5. Precipitation Seasonality (Bio15): A preference for a range of 76.9–86.7%.
6. Temperature Annual Range (Bio07): Optimal range is 20.6–23.1 °C.

Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Malania oleifera

Habitat Contraction and Fragmentation

Future climate projections present a severe threat to M. oleifera. The total suitable habitat is expected to decrease across all scenarios, with the most drastic reduction occurring under the high-emission SSP585 scenario. By the 2090s, the highly suitable area is projected to shrink by 96.46% compared to its current extent. This impending habitat loss and fragmentation represent a significant challenge to achieving SDG 15.5, which calls for urgent action to reduce the degradation of natural habitats and halt the loss of biodiversity.

Southeastward Migration of Habitat Centroid

In response to changing climate patterns, the centroid of the suitable habitat for M. oleifera is projected to shift progressively southeastward. Under the low-emission SSP126 scenario, the shift is estimated to be between 17.39–48.52 km. However, under the high-emission SSP585 scenario, this migration could extend up to 184.19 km by the 2090s. This highlights the critical need for climate-adaptive management strategies, as called for by SDG 13 (Climate Action), to help the species adapt to or migrate with changing conditions.

Strategic Recommendations for Conservation and Sustainable Utilization

Aligning Conservation with Sustainable Development Goals

Based on the projected changes, a multi-pronged strategy is necessary to safeguard M. oleifera while leveraging its potential for sustainable development. The following actions are recommended:

1. In Situ Conservation (SDG 15.5): Prioritize the protection of stable habitats identified at the junction of Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guizhou. This includes strengthening existing nature reserves and establishing new breeding bases to conserve genetic diversity and maintain viable wild populations.
2. Adaptive Monitoring and Rescue (SDG 13.1): Establish intensive monitoring systems in the identified contraction zones, which are highly sensitive to environmental changes. This will provide early warnings and data to guide adaptive management, including potential ex situ or near-site conservation efforts to rescue threatened populations.
3. Climate-Adaptive Cultivation (SDG 12.2 & SDG 8.4): Proactively explore adaptive cultivation trials in potential future expansion areas, such as Guangdong province. This approach supports the sustainable use of natural resources and promotes economic growth by securing a future supply of nervonic acid and other valuable products.

Conclusion: An Integrated Approach for a Resilient Future

The conservation of Malania oleifera is intrinsically linked to global sustainability targets. Protecting this species from the impacts of climate change is not only a mandate under SDG 15 (Life on Land) but also an opportunity to advance goals related to public health (SDG 3), sustainable economic growth (SDG 8), responsible production (SDG 12), and climate resilience (SDG 13). An integrated framework that combines scientific modeling, targeted conservation policies, and sustainable utilization strategies is essential to ensure the long-term survival of this ecologically and economically important species.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article on Malania oleifera addresses several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by focusing on the conservation of a vulnerable plant species, its ecological and economic importance, and the threats it faces from climate change and human activity.

• SDG 15: Life on Land

  This is the most central SDG to the article. The study is entirely focused on a terrestrial plant species (M. oleifera), its habitat in “karst fragile ecosystems,” its status as a “nationally Category II protected wild plant in China and a Vulnerable species on the IUCN Red List,” and the urgent need for its conservation. The article directly discusses halting biodiversity loss, protecting threatened species, and promoting sustainable management of forest ecosystems.

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  The article extensively analyzes the impact of climate change on the species. It simulates the potential habitats for M. oleifera “under the future climate scenarios” (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) and concludes that the “total area of suitable habitats for M. oleifera is expected to decrease.” This directly connects the species’ survival to climate action and the need for adaptive strategies.

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger

  While not about staple crops, the article connects to SDG 2 through its focus on agricultural biodiversity and sustainable production. M. oleifera is described as a “high-quality woody oil tree species” whose kernel contains valuable fatty acids. The discussion on “artificial cultivation,” “breeding bases,” and “sustainable management” aligns with promoting sustainable agricultural practices and conserving genetic resources for food and agriculture.

• SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

  The article highlights the medicinal value of M. oleifera. It states that the nervonic acid (NA) from its kernel has “unique therapeutic effects in preventing or assisting in the treatment of senile dementia or senile cognitive impairment.” This links the conservation of this plant species to human health and well-being, particularly for non-communicable diseases.

• SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production

  The study’s recommendations for “sustainable management of this vulnerable species” and “sustainable use of M. oleifera resources” directly relate to achieving sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources. The article acknowledges the plant’s “extremely high economic, ecological, and developmental value” and seeks to balance its utilization with conservation.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the issues discussed, several specific SDG targets are relevant:

1. SDG 15: Life on Land

   • Target 15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services, in particular forests, wetlands, mountains and drylands. The article’s focus on conserving M. oleifera within its “karst forest” habitat and its role in “ecological restoration” directly supports this target.
   • Target 15.4: By 2030, ensure the conservation of mountain ecosystems, including their biodiversity, in order to enhance their capacity to provide benefits that are essential for sustainable development. The study centers on a species in “karst rocky areas,” a type of mountain ecosystem, and aims to guide its conservation.
   • Target 15.5: Take urgent and significant action to reduce the degradation of natural habitats, halt the loss of biodiversity and, by 2020, protect and prevent the extinction of threatened species. The entire study is an effort to protect a “Vulnerable species” facing “severe habitat fragmentation” and a projected decrease in suitable habitat.
   • Target 15.9: By 2020, integrate ecosystem and biodiversity values into national and local planning, development processes, poverty reduction strategies and accounts. The study aims to provide “scientific and practical guidance for sustainable management” and inform conservation planning at a regional level (e.g., “Guangxi-Yunnan-Guizhou border region”).

2. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. The article models future habitat loss due to climate change and proposes “adaptive protection strategies” and “climate-adaptive cultivation trials” to build resilience for the species.

3. SDG 2: Zero Hunger

   • Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices… that help maintain ecosystems, [and] strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change. The proposal to develop “breeding base development” and “adaptive cultivation strategies” for this oil-producing tree aligns with this target.
   • Target 2.5: By 2020, maintain the genetic diversity of seeds, cultivated plants… including through soundly managed and diversified seed and plant banks. The call for “*in situ* conservation” and the establishment of “breeding bases” is a direct action towards conserving the genetic resources of M. oleifera.

4. SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

   • Target 3.4: By 2030, reduce by one third premature mortality from non-communicable diseases through prevention and treatment and promote mental health and well-being. The article’s mention of nervonic acid’s potential to treat “senile dementia or senile cognitive impairment” links the plant’s conservation to this health-related target.

5. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production

   • Target 12.2: By 2030, achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources. The article’s conclusion explicitly calls for a framework that combines “targeted conservation policies” with “sustainable use of M. oleifera resources” to safeguard its future for both “ecology and industry.”

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

The article mentions and implies several indicators that can measure progress:

1. Indicators for SDG 15

   • Indicator 15.1.1 (Forest area as a proportion of total land area): The article provides quantitative data on the species’ habitat area. For example, it states the “total area of the potential suitable distribution area for Malania oleifera under the current climate is 9.6 × 10⁴ km².” It also projects future changes, such as a “96.46% reduction” in highly suitable areas under the SSP585 scenario. Tracking this area over time serves as a direct measure of habitat conservation.
   • Indicator 15.5.1 (Red List Index): The article explicitly states that M. oleifera is a “Vulnerable species on the IUCN Red List.” The Red List Index itself is a key indicator, and the goal of the proposed conservation efforts would be to improve the species’ status on this index.

2. Indicators for SDG 13

   • Qualitative progress towards Target 13.1: While no formal indicator is named, the study’s modeling of climate impacts and the development of “adaptive protection strategies” and “climate-adaptive cultivation trials” are tangible actions. The implementation and success of these strategies would serve as a measure of increased resilience and adaptive capacity.

3. Indicators for SDG 2

   • Indicator 2.5.1 (Number of plant and animal genetic resources for food and agriculture secured in conservation facilities): The recommendation to strengthen “*in situ* conservation and the construction of breeding bases” directly relates to this indicator. The number of established conservation sites and the genetic diversity secured within them would be a clear metric of progress.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: nature.com