November 1966: Syukuro Manabe makes the first modern climate model – American Physical Society

Report on the Historical Development of Climate Modeling and its Impact on Sustainable Development Goals

This report details the origins and evolution of computational climate modeling, highlighting the seminal work of Syukuro Manabe. It analyzes how this foundational research directly informs and underpins the urgency of achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with a primary focus on SDG 13 (Climate Action).

1.0 Early Innovations in Computational Meteorology and Sustainable Infrastructure

The history of climate modeling is intrinsically linked to advancements in computing technology, reflecting the core principles of SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure. The application of new technologies to solve complex environmental challenges began shortly after the development of the first modern computers.

1. 1946: Mathematician John von Neumann proposed using programmable computers for weather prediction.
2. 1950: The ENIAC computer produced the first 24-hour weather forecast, demonstrating the potential of computational atmospheric science.
3. 1955: The U.S. government established the General Circulation Research Section, later known as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), to formalize atmospheric modeling. This institutional investment in scientific infrastructure was a critical step toward understanding climate systems.

2.0 Manabe’s Foundational Model: A Scientific Basis for Climate Action (SDG 13)

The recruitment of Syukuro Manabe by the GFDL led to a breakthrough that provided the scientific bedrock for SDG 13: Climate Action. Faced with the limitations of early computers, Manabe developed a simplified yet powerful model that quantified the impact of greenhouse gases.

2.1 Model Development and Key Findings

• Simplification Strategy: To overcome computational constraints, Manabe and Robert Strickler developed a one-dimensional model that simulated heat transfer through a vertical column of the atmosphere.
• Testing Greenhouse Gas Effects: Manabe and Richard Wetherald used this model to test the climate’s sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂).
• Landmark Result: Their 1967 paper, published in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, demonstrated that doubling atmospheric CO₂ concentration would result in a global average temperature increase of approximately 2.4°C.

2.2 Critical Scientific Insights

Manabe’s model was uniquely accurate because it incorporated two crucial physical processes previously overlooked:

• Convective Adjustment: The model accounted for the vertical movement of heat and gases in the atmosphere.
• Water Vapor Feedback: It correctly identified that a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor (a potent greenhouse gas), creating a positive feedback loop that amplifies warming from CO₂.

This work provided the first robust, physically-based evidence of the magnitude of global warming from anthropogenic emissions, laying the foundation for all subsequent climate models and international climate policy, including the Paris Agreement.

3.0 Broader Implications for the Sustainable Development Agenda

The legacy of Manabe’s research extends across multiple SDGs, highlighting the interconnectedness of climate science and global sustainability.

• SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy): By scientifically linking CO₂ from fossil fuels to global warming, the model underscores the critical need to transition to clean energy sources to mitigate climate change.
• SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities): Modern climate models, which evolved from Manabe’s work, are now essential tools for helping cities and communities build resilience. They are used to predict localized impacts, such as the likelihood of extreme weather events, enabling better planning and adaptation strategies.
• SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals): The development of climate science has been a global, collaborative effort, exemplified by Manabe’s work as a Japanese scientist at an American institution. Continued international partnership is essential to refine models and guide collective climate action.

4.0 Conclusion: From Foundational Science to Existential Imperative

The pioneering climate modeling of the 1960s has evolved into an essential tool for navigating the 21st-century climate crisis. The 2024 UNEP Emissions Gap Report projects a temperature increase of 2.6 to 3.1°C this century, far exceeding the 1.5°C target necessary to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Today’s advanced models, utilizing powerful computers and machine learning, build upon Manabe’s foundational assumptions to provide high-resolution forecasts that inform policy and empower local communities. This progression from pure scientific inquiry to a tool for societal survival demonstrates the profound and ongoing importance of climate science in the global effort to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

Analysis of the Article in Relation to Sustainable Development Goals

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  The article’s central theme is the development of climate modeling to understand and predict the effects of greenhouse gases, specifically carbon dioxide, on global temperatures. This directly relates to taking action to combat climate change and its impacts. The text discusses the scientific foundation for understanding global warming, mentions the Paris Agreement, and highlights projected temperature increases and necessary emission cuts.

• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

  The article details a significant scientific and technological innovation: the creation of the first viable climate models using early computers. It chronicles the history of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the pioneering research by scientists like Syukuro Manabe. This focus on enhancing scientific research and using technology to solve complex problems aligns with SDG 9.

• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

  The conclusion of the article connects the advanced climate models of today to practical applications for human settlements. It raises questions about how localities can plan for and protect themselves from extreme weather events, which is a core component of making cities and communities resilient and sustainable in the face of climate change.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

• SDG 13: Climate Action
  • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.

    The article supports this target by explaining that modern climate models, built on Manabe’s foundational work, can now help people “understand how these changes will play out locally” and answer questions like “How likely are extreme weather events? How can localities plan for this and protect themselves?” This knowledge is essential for building resilience.

  • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning.

    Manabe’s 1967 paper is described as the “most influential climate change paper ever published” and “laid the foundation for all modern climate models.” This scientific work is the basis for education and awareness about global warming. The article notes that his model is still used as a “powerful teaching tool” for students.

• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
  • Target 9.5: Enhance scientific research, upgrade the technological capabilities of industrial sectors in all countries…encouraging innovation.

    The article is a historical account of this target in action. It describes the creation of the General Circulation Research Section in 1955 with the goal of “modeling the atmosphere,” the use of early computers like ENIAC for scientific prediction, and Manabe’s innovative approach to simplifying complex climate systems to make them computable. His work represents a monumental enhancement of scientific research and technological capability.

• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
  • Target 11.b: By 2020, substantially increase the number of cities and human settlements adopting and implementing integrated policies and plans towards…mitigation and adaptation to climate change, resilience to disasters…

    The article directly points to the need for such plans by stating that climate modelers can now help localities “plan for this and protect themselves” from the local impacts of climate change. The models provide the scientific data necessary for cities and settlements to develop and implement effective adaptation and resilience strategies.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• For SDG 13 (Climate Action):
  • Global Temperature Increase: The article provides specific quantitative indicators related to global temperature. Manabe’s initial model predicted a 2.4°C increase with doubled CO2. The 2024 UNEP report cited in the article projects a “temperature increase of 2.6 to 3.1°C in this century” and references the Paris Agreement goal to “limit that increase to the 1.5°C.” These figures are direct measures of climate change.
  • Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions: The article explicitly states the world needs to “cut emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035” to meet the 1.5°C target. These percentages serve as clear, measurable indicators for climate mitigation efforts.
  • Concentration of Greenhouse Gases: The article’s central experiment involved “doubling CO2 in their model,” implying that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a key indicator for tracking the driver of climate change.
• For SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure):
  • Publication of Influential Scientific Research: A qualitative indicator is the publication of Manabe and Wetherald’s 1967 paper, described as the “most influential climate change paper ever published.” The impact and citation of such foundational research can measure progress in scientific understanding.
  • Creation of Research Institutions: The establishment of the “General Circulation Research Section” in 1955, which later became the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), is an indicator of institutional investment and capacity-building in scientific research.
• For SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities):
  • Development of Local Climate Adaptation Plans: The article implies the need for this indicator by asking, “How can localities plan for this and protect themselves?” The existence and implementation of such plans, informed by climate models, would be a direct measure of progress towards Target 11.b.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: aps.org