2024 Marks a Pivotal Shift in the Global Poverty Landscape

Introduction

In 2024, a significant transformation in the global poverty landscape has been observed. For the first time, the majority of people living in extreme poverty—defined as living on less than $3.00 per person per day at 2021 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) prices—reside in countries classified by the World Bank as Fragile and Conflict-affected Situations (FCS). The estimated number of people living in extreme poverty in FCS countries reached 415 million in 2024.

Projected Trends in Extreme Poverty

By 2030, projections indicate that nearly 60% of the global population living in extreme poverty—approximately 436 million out of 757 million people—will be located in fragile states. This shift highlights the urgent need to align poverty reduction efforts with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions).

Figure 1: Distribution of Extreme Poverty in FCS and Non-FCS Countries by 2030

Fragile States in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Epicenter of Extreme Poverty

Current Burden and Future Projections

Sub-Saharan Africa currently bears the greatest burden of global poverty and fragility, accounting for 70% of the global population living in extreme poverty and hosting half of the world’s FCS countries as of 2024. By 2030, the region is expected to host nearly 80% of the world’s extreme poor, with fragile states within Sub-Saharan Africa alone housing nearly half of the global total—approximately 367 million people.

Key Countries: Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo

Within Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo stand out as critical focal points. By 2030, these two fragile states are projected to host one in every four people living in extreme poverty globally. This concentration underscores the importance of targeted interventions aligned with SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) in these countries to achieve global poverty reduction targets.

Figure 2: Concentration of Extreme Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Fragile States by 2030

Multidimensional and Persistent Nature of Poverty in Fragile Settings

Human Development Challenges

• Child Stunting: Approximately 35% of children under five in FCS countries are stunted, compared to 22% in non-fragile contexts, impacting SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being).
• Education: Children in fragile settings receive only five learning-adjusted years of schooling versus nine years in stable countries, with consistently poorer performance on standardized tests, affecting SDG 4 (Quality Education).

Employment and Infrastructure Deficits

• Employment: Despite high labor force participation, over 60% of workers in fragile contexts engage in low-productivity, informal, and vulnerable jobs, highlighting challenges related to SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).
• Infrastructure: Only half of the population in FCS countries has access to electricity or the internet, limiting access to markets, services, and digital opportunities, which relates to SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).

Governance and Service Delivery

Weak governance and limited capacity to deliver essential services in fragile states create a poverty trap that is difficult to escape, even when peace returns or crises subside. This situation emphasizes the critical role of SDG 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions) in breaking the cycle of fragility and poverty.

Urgent Need for Strategic Action to Address Fragility and Poverty

Challenges Ahead

The future of global poverty reduction is increasingly linked to addressing fragility. Current trajectories suggest that, even under optimistic scenarios involving 4% annual per capita economic growth or effective redistributive policies, extreme poverty will still affect approximately 24% of the population in FCS countries by mid-century.

Strategic Priorities Aligned with the SDGs

1. Focus on Fragile States: Prioritize interventions in fragile and conflict-affected countries to accelerate progress towards SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions).
2. Invest in Human Capital: Enhance health, nutrition, and education services to improve outcomes related to SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being), and SDG 4 (Quality Education).
3. Promote Inclusive Economic Growth: Support decent work and formal employment opportunities to advance SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and reduce inequalities (SDG 10).
4. Strengthen Infrastructure and Connectivity: Expand access to electricity and digital technologies to foster innovation and sustainable communities, contributing to SDG 9 and SDG 11.
5. Enhance Governance and Institutional Capacity: Build resilient institutions to sustain peace and development, crucial for SDG 16.

Conclusion

2024 represents a critical turning point in the global fight against poverty. The increasing concentration of extreme poverty in fragile states demands a strategic and urgent response that integrates the Sustainable Development Goals. Without confronting fragility head-on, the global community risks failing to eradicate poverty and achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

1. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Addressed or Connected

1. SDG 1: No Poverty – The article focuses extensively on extreme poverty, its distribution, and challenges in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS).
2. SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being – References to child stunting and human development indicate relevance to health and nutrition.
3. SDG 4: Quality Education – The article mentions weak education systems, low years of schooling, and poor learning outcomes in fragile contexts.
4. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth – Discussion of poor job prospects, informal and vulnerable employment relates to this goal.
5. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure – Infrastructure gaps such as limited access to electricity and internet are highlighted.
6. SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions – The role of fragility, weak governance, and institutional challenges is central to the article.

2. Specific Targets Under Those SDGs Identified

1. SDG 1: No Poverty
   • Target 1.1: Eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere.
   • Target 1.2: Reduce at least by half the proportion of men, women and children living in poverty in all its dimensions.
2. SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being
   • Target 3.2: End preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5 years of age (linked to child stunting).
3. SDG 4: Quality Education
   • Target 4.1: Ensure that all girls and boys complete free, equitable and quality primary and secondary education.
   • Target 4.6: Ensure that all youth achieve literacy and numeracy (implied by poor learning outcomes).
4. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
   • Target 8.5: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all women and men.
5. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
   • Target 9.c: Increase access to information and communications technology and strive to provide universal and affordable access to the internet.
6. SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
   • Target 16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels.
   • Target 16.7: Ensure responsive, inclusive, participatory and representative decision-making.

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied to Measure Progress

1. SDG 1 Indicators
   • Proportion of population living below the international poverty line (less than $3.00 per person per day at 2021 PPP).
   • Number of people living in extreme poverty in fragile and conflict-affected situations.
2. SDG 3 Indicators
   • Prevalence of stunting among children under 5 years old (35% in FCS vs. 22% in non-fragile contexts).
3. SDG 4 Indicators
   • Average learning-adjusted years of schooling (5 years in FCS vs. 9 years in stable countries).
   • Performance on standardized tests (implied lower scores in fragile contexts).
4. SDG 8 Indicators
   • Proportion of informal employment and vulnerable jobs (over 60% in fragile contexts).
   • Labor force participation rates.
5. SDG 9 Indicators
   • Proportion of population with access to electricity and internet (only half in FCS countries).
6. SDG 16 Indicators
   • Measures of governance effectiveness and institutional capacity (implied by references to weak governance and limited capacity to deliver services).

4. Table of SDGs, Targets and Indicators

Source: blogs.worldbank.org