Report on the Role of Earth System Models in Achieving Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction: Earth System Models as a Critical Tool for Sustainable Development

Advanced computational simulations, known as Earth System Models (ESMs), are integral to understanding the complex interactions within the planet’s physical, chemical, and biological systems. These models have evolved from early physical climate simulations into comprehensive tools that provide critical insights for policy and decision-making. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), represents a leading-edge example of this technology. This report outlines the function of ESMs, with a particular focus on E3SM, and their direct contributions to achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It also examines the significant risks posed to these goals by proposed funding and programmatic cuts to ESM research.

E3SM’s Direct Contributions to the Sustainable Development Agenda

The high-resolution and integrated nature of the E3SM allows for detailed analysis of interconnected global systems, providing data essential for progress on numerous SDGs.

SDG 13: Climate Action

ESMs are fundamental to fulfilling the objectives of SDG 13. Their primary function is to model climate systems to understand and predict the impacts of climate change.

• E3SM provides high-resolution predictions of extreme weather events, such as floods and hurricanes, enabling better preparation and adaptation strategies.
• The model helps quantify the effects of rising average temperatures, informing global mitigation efforts.
• Research using E3SM has identified complex global connections, such as how cavities in Antarctic ice can influence tides along the North American coast, improving our understanding of sea-level rise.

SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

A unique capability of E3SM is its focus on the intersection of climate and energy systems, which is vital for ensuring a resilient and sustainable energy infrastructure.

• The model is used to understand how extreme weather events may tax the electrical grid, helping to prevent failures and ensure reliable energy access.
• It provides critical data for planning the placement and operation of energy infrastructure, such as power stations that require cooling, in a changing climate.

SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being), and SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation)

E3SM research provides crucial insights into the interplay between human activities, climate, and essential resources, directly impacting food security, health, and water management.

1. Food Security: Studies using E3SM have shown that rising temperatures can convert farmlands from carbon sinks into carbon sources, threatening agricultural sustainability (SDG 2).
2. Human Health: Research revealed that agricultural irrigation can increase “moist heat,” endangering the health of farmworkers (SDG 3).
3. Water Quality: The model has been used to demonstrate how intense rainfall events push excess nutrients into major water bodies like the Gulf of Mexico, impacting water quality and ecosystems (SDG 6).

SDG 14 (Life Below Water) and SDG 15 (Life on Land)

By simulating oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial systems, E3SM contributes to the conservation of marine and land-based ecosystems.

• The model’s ability to link distant phenomena, like Antarctic ice and North American tides, is crucial for understanding marine dynamics (SDG 14).
• E3SM simulations have connected Pacific hurricane patterns to the frequency of forest fires in the American southwest, providing valuable information for ecosystem management (SDG 15).

Threats to ESM Research and a Setback for the SDGs

Proposed budgetary and policy changes within the U.S. government pose a direct threat to the continued development and application of E3SM, thereby jeopardizing progress on the SDGs.

Impact of Funding Reductions and Policy Shifts

The proposed 2025 budget for the DOE’s Office of Science includes significant reductions for Earth and environmental system modeling and explicitly states that “Any Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) activities involving climate are terminated.”

• This policy directly undermines SDG 13 (Climate Action) by defunding a primary tool used to study climate change.
• Reductions in funding for related agencies like the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will further curtail research essential for the SDGs.
• The directive to remove terms like “climate change” from public communications hinders the dissemination of scientific knowledge crucial for informed policy-making.

Global Implications for SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

The potential curtailment of U.S.-based ESM research has significant global ramifications, affecting international scientific collaboration and the collective pursuit of the SDGs.

Loss of Leadership and Human Capital

The international scientific community has expressed concern over the potential loss of U.S. leadership in climate science. The primary consequences include:

1. Erosion of Scientific Expertise: The defunding of climate research will lead to a loss of “human capital,” as experienced scientists may leave the field or the country. Rebuilding this level of expertise would take decades.
2. Migration of Capabilities: There is a risk that modeling capabilities and scientific leadership could migrate to other nations, fragmenting the global research effort.
3. Weakened International Collaboration: The U.S. has historically been a leader and key partner in global climate research. A withdrawal from this role weakens the global partnership (SDG 17) needed to address planetary challenges. While other ESMs exist, the loss of a premier model like E3SM reduces the diversity of tools available to the global community for cross-verifying results and advancing understanding.

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article discusses the development, use, and potential defunding of Earth System Models (ESMs), particularly the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). This connects to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) focused on climate, energy, scientific innovation, health, ecosystems, and international cooperation.

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  This is the most central SDG. The entire article revolves around ESMs, which are sophisticated tools designed to “try to grasp the past and predict the future” of the planet’s climate. The text explicitly states that a core function of E3SM is for “climate-related activities” and that proposed budget cuts would terminate these activities, directly impacting the ability to take informed action on climate change.

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

  The article highlights that the Department of Energy (DOE) developed E3SM to focus on energy issues. The model is used to “understand how the climate interacts with the power system — like how that extreme weather may tax the grid, or cause it to falter,” and for “knowing how to cool power stations.” This directly links the research to ensuring a resilient and sustainable energy infrastructure.

• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

  The development of E3SM is a prime example of scientific innovation. It utilizes “the world’s most powerful supercomputers” and represents over a decade of software development to create a “digital twin” of the planet. The article’s concern over funding cuts leading to a loss of expertise and the migration of modeling abilities overseas speaks to the importance of maintaining scientific research and technological infrastructure.

• SDG 15: Life on Land

  The article provides specific examples of how E3SM is used to understand impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. These include studies showing that rising temperatures can “turn farmlands into carbon creators instead of carbon sinks,” that intense rains “push nutrients into the Gulf of Mexico,” and how hurricanes can “decrease the number of forest fires in the American southwest.”

• SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

  A direct link to health is made through the example of a study using E3SM. The research found that irrigation contributes to “moist heat,” which can endanger the “health — their life even” of farmers working in fields. This demonstrates the model’s capacity to identify and help manage environmental health risks.

• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

  The article underscores the global nature of this scientific field. It mentions the U.S. role as a “leader in the field,” the concern among European scientists over the cuts, and the potential for other countries to “catch up.” The discussion about backing up data and the possibility of re-establishing the model in another country highlights the need for international cooperation to safeguard scientific knowledge and technology.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters. The article states E3SM is “used to predict extreme events, like floods” and understand how hurricanes evolve, which is essential for building resilience.
   • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning. The ESMs represent a core part of the institutional capacity for climate research. The article’s warning about the “loss of human capital” and the potential for scientists to be “screwed for a very long time” directly relates to the threat to this capacity.

2. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

   • Target 7.a: Enhance international cooperation to facilitate access to clean energy research and technology… and promote investment in energy infrastructure and clean energy technology. E3SM is a key technology for understanding the resilience of energy infrastructure. The article notes the DOE’s focus on energy issues and the significant investment (“about $100 million in funding between 2018 and 2022”) in this research, which is now under threat.

3. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

   • Target 9.5: Enhance scientific research, upgrade the technological capabilities… encouraging innovation and substantially increasing the number of research and development workers. The development of an ESM for “exascale” supercomputers is a clear example of enhancing scientific research. The article’s focus on the potential “loss of human capital” and the fact that it “takes decades” to produce a senior scientist directly addresses the concern over the number of R&D workers.

4. SDG 15: Life on Land

   • Target 15.3: By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil… and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world. The article mentions research using E3SM to find that rising temperatures can “turn farmlands into carbon creators instead of carbon sinks,” which is a form of land degradation that this research helps to understand and potentially combat.

5. SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

   • Target 3.d: Strengthen the capacity of all countries… for early warning, risk reduction and management of national and global health risks. The research cited on how irrigation creates “moist heat” that endangers farm workers is a direct application of the model for identifying and managing a specific environmental health risk.

6. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

   • Target 17.6: Enhance… international cooperation on and access to science, technology and innovation. The article highlights the U.S. as a global leader and the international concern (“This is the topic of every lunch table here” in Europe) over the potential loss of American ESM capabilities, underscoring the interconnectedness of the global scientific community.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article mentions or implies several quantitative and qualitative indicators that can be used to measure progress.

• Funding for Scientific Research

  This is a direct, quantitative indicator. The article explicitly states the proposed budget for DOE’s Earth and environmental system modeling decreases “from around $110 million to $30 million.” It also mentions a previous investment of “$100 million in funding between 2018 and 2022.” These figures serve as direct measures of financial support for the institutional capacity required for climate and energy research (relevant to SDGs 13, 7, 9).

• Number of Scientists and Researchers (“Human Capital”)

  The article repeatedly emphasizes the “loss of human capital” as a critical issue, noting that “it takes years to produce a scientist.” The number of scientists employed in this field, their retention, and the training of new researchers are implied indicators of a country’s scientific capacity (relevant to SDGs 9, 13).

• Model Resolution and Predictive Accuracy

  The article describes E3SM as “much finer grained than most such models, providing more tailored and accurate results.” The ongoing effort to create a “digital twin” of the planet implies that the accuracy and resolution of these models are key metrics of progress in scientific innovation (relevant to SDG 9).

• Identification of Specific Climate and Environmental Risks

  The article provides concrete examples of the models’ outputs, such as identifying the risk of “moist heat” to farm workers’ health, farmlands becoming “carbon creators,” and the impact of rains on nutrient runoff. The number and significance of such findings can serve as an indicator of the models’ utility in risk reduction and management (relevant to SDGs 3, 13, 15).

• International Scientific Leadership and Collaboration

  The article qualitatively measures this through statements about the U.S. having been a “leader in the field” and its research labs being the “envy of the world.” The level of concern from international partners (“It’s quite sad,” says a Zurich-based researcher) is an implied indicator of the importance of U.S. contributions to global scientific partnerships (relevant to SDG 17).

4. Create a table with three columns titled ‘SDGs, Targets and Indicators” to present the findings from analyzing the article.

Source: undark.org