Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

ENSO Diagnostic Discussion  NOAA

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Aug 16, 2024 - 05:30
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Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Synopsis:


ENSO-neutral is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to emerge during September-November (66% chance) and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (74% chance during November-January).

ENSO-Neutral Conditions in July 2024

ENSO-neutral conditions persisted during July 2024, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The Niño region indices, except for the Niño-4 index, showed slightly negative values [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures below average strengthened over the past month, indicated by the expansion of negative anomalies along the thermocline [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central and eastern Pacific, while upper-level winds were westerly over the eastern Pacific. Convection was near average around Indonesia and the Date Line [Fig. 5]. These observations collectively indicate an ENSO-neutral state in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system.

Forecast for La Niña Development

The IRI plume forecast suggests that Niño-3.4 is most likely to be below La Niña thresholds for four overlapping seasons, from September-November 2024 through December 2024 – February 2025 [Fig. 6]. Based on updated guidance and recent observations, the forecast team predicts nearly equal chances for ENSO-neutral and La Niña in August-October 2024, with higher odds for La Niña in September-November. Despite the slower rate of sea surface temperature cooling, below-average subsurface temperatures and low-level easterly wind anomalies continue to support the development of La Niña in the coming months. Therefore, it is expected that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist for the next several months, with La Niña favored to emerge during September-November (66% chance) and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (74% chance during November-January; [Fig. 7]).

Conclusion

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 September 2024.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

SDGs Targets Indicators
SDG 13: Climate Action 13.1 Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters Indicator not mentioned in the article
SDG 13: Climate Action 13.3 Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning Indicator not mentioned in the article
SDG 13: Climate Action 13.a Implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion annually by 2020 from all sources to address the needs of developing countries in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation and fully operationalize the Green Climate Fund through its capitalization as soon as possible Indicator not mentioned in the article
SDG 13: Climate Action 13.b Promote mechanisms for raising capacity for effective climate change-related planning and management in least developed countries and small island developing States, including focusing on women, youth, and local and marginalized communities Indicator not mentioned in the article
SDG 13: Climate Action 13.c Improve, in a measurable way, the understanding of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation, including through education, awareness-raising, and capacity-building Indicator not mentioned in the article
SDG 13: Climate Action 13.d Promote mechanisms for raising capacity for effective climate change-related planning and management in least developed countries and small island developing States, including focusing on women, youth, and local and marginalized communities Indicator not mentioned in the article

Source: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov