Report on Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Climate Change: Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction

Measuring climate change involves various methods, including long-term temperature recordings across different locations. However, natural variations can obscure long-term trends. A more definitive approach is tracking Earth’s energy budget—the balance between heat entering and leaving the atmosphere. Recent research indicates this energy budget is significantly out of balance, with the imbalance more than doubling over the past 20 years. This report emphasizes the critical connection between these findings and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 13 (Climate Action), SDG 14 (Life Below Water), and SDG 15 (Life on Land).

Earth’s Energy Budget and Climate Change

Understanding Energy Inflow and Outflow

Earth’s energy budget operates similarly to a bank account where energy is the currency. Solar radiation warms the planet, while heat-trapping greenhouse gases retain some of this energy. Human activities, especially the combustion of fossil fuels, have introduced over two trillion tonnes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, intensifying heat retention and disrupting the natural energy balance.

• Approximately 90% of the excess heat is absorbed by the oceans, highlighting the importance of SDG 14 (Life Below Water).
• The remaining heat contributes to warming land and melting ice, impacting terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity (SDG 15).
• Natural mechanisms such as reflection by clouds, snow, and ice, and infrared radiation emission help Earth shed heat, but these processes are being compromised.

Since the onset of human civilization, the average surface temperature was about 14°C. The current energy imbalance has increased this by approximately 1.3 to 1.5°C, exacerbating climate risks globally.

Visual Evidence

Scientific Tracking and Model Comparisons

Methods of Monitoring Energy Imbalance

1. Satellite radiometers measure incoming solar energy and outgoing heat radiation, providing data since the late 1980s.
2. Robotic ocean floats monitor temperature changes in the oceans, tracking heat accumulation since the 1990s.

Both methods confirm a rapid increase in Earth’s energy imbalance, with recent measurements showing a doubling compared to the mid-2000s. This increase exceeds predictions by current climate models, which generally forecast less than half the observed change.

Implications for Climate Models and SDGs

The discrepancy between observed data and model predictions suggests that climate change may accelerate faster than anticipated, posing significant challenges to achieving SDG 13 (Climate Action) and related goals.

Factors Contributing to Rapid Change

Role of Cloud Patterns

Emerging research identifies changes in cloud coverage as a major factor influencing the energy imbalance:

• Reduction in highly reflective white cloud areas decreases Earth’s ability to reflect solar radiation.
• Increase in less reflective, jumbled clouds contributes to greater heat retention.

Possible causes include:

• Reduced sulfur emissions from shipping fuels, which previously brightened clouds.
• Natural climate fluctuations such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
• Potential positive feedback loops driven by global warming itself.

Visual Evidence

Consequences and Future Outlook

Projected Climate Impacts

The increasing energy imbalance suggests that recent extreme heat events are likely indicators of a strengthening warming trend over the next decade or longer. This trend will likely result in:

• More frequent and intense heatwaves, droughts, and extreme rainfall events on land (impacting SDG 15: Life on Land).
• Longer-lasting and more severe marine heatwaves affecting ocean ecosystems (impacting SDG 14: Life Below Water).

Climate Sensitivity and Model Predictions

New research indicates that climate models aligning closely with observed data predict higher climate sensitivity, implying more severe warming scenarios if emissions are not rapidly curtailed. This underscores the urgency of achieving SDG 13 (Climate Action) through immediate emission reductions and sustainable practices.

Monitoring and Policy Implications

Importance of Sustained Climate Monitoring

Continuous and accurate monitoring of Earth’s energy budget is vital for early detection of changes and informed policy decisions. Satellites serve as an advanced warning system, detecting heat storage changes approximately a decade before other methods.

Threats to Monitoring Capabilities

Recent funding uncertainties and shifting priorities, particularly in the United States, threaten essential satellite climate monitoring programs. Maintaining and enhancing these capabilities is crucial for supporting global efforts toward sustainable development and climate resilience.

Recommendations Aligned with SDGs

1. Accelerate the phase-out of fossil fuels: Transition to renewable energy sources to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy; SDG 13: Climate Action).
2. Protect and restore ecosystems: Prevent deforestation and promote reforestation to enhance carbon sequestration (SDG 15: Life on Land).
3. Invest in climate monitoring infrastructure: Secure funding for satellite and ocean monitoring systems to enable timely climate action (SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure).
4. Enhance international cooperation: Support global climate agreements and data sharing to address climate change collectively (SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals).

Conclusion

The doubling of Earth’s energy imbalance signals an urgent need for intensified climate action to meet the Sustainable Development Goals. Accurate monitoring and rapid emission reductions are essential to mitigate accelerating climate impacts on terrestrial and marine ecosystems, human health, and global sustainability.

1. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Addressed or Connected

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • The article focuses on climate change, energy imbalance, and global warming, directly relating to SDG 13 which aims to combat climate change and its impacts.
2. SDG 14: Life Below Water
   • The article mentions that 90% of the excess heat is absorbed by the oceans, affecting marine ecosystems and ocean warming, which links to SDG 14 on conserving and sustainably using the oceans.
3. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
   • The article discusses the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) as a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, implying the need for clean energy solutions.
4. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • Melting of glaciers, ice sheets, and warming of land are mentioned, which affect terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity, linking to SDG 15.

2. Specific Targets Under Those SDGs Identified

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters.
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning.
   • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning.
2. SDG 14: Life Below Water
   • Target 14.3: Minimize and address the impacts of ocean acidification, including through enhanced scientific cooperation at all levels.
   • Target 14.2: Sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts.
3. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
   • Target 7.2: Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
   • Target 7.a: Enhance international cooperation to facilitate access to clean energy research and technology.
4. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • Target 15.1: Ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.
   • Target 15.3: Combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil.

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied to Measure Progress

1. Energy Imbalance Measurement
   • Indicator: Watts per square meter (W/m²) measuring Earth’s energy budget imbalance (energy entering vs. leaving the atmosphere).
   • Used to track the doubling of energy imbalance from 0.6 W/m² to 1.3 W/m² over 20 years.
2. Global Surface Temperature Increase
   • Indicator: Average global surface temperature increase (°C) above pre-industrial levels, currently 1.3-1.5°C higher.
3. Ocean Heat Content
   • Indicator: Temperature readings from robotic floats monitoring ocean heat accumulation.
   • Reflects 90% of the excess heat absorbed by oceans.
4. Satellite Radiometer Data
   • Indicator: Satellite measurements of incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation.
   • Used to monitor Earth’s energy budget since the late 1980s.
5. Cloud Coverage and Reflectivity
   • Indicator: Changes in the area and reflectivity of clouds, affecting Earth’s heat reflection capacity.
6. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
   • Indicator: Amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases emitted (e.g., two trillion tonnes of CO2 added to the atmosphere).

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: theconversation.com