Report on the Mass Adoption of Electric Vehicles and Sustainable Development Goals

Overview of Electric Vehicle Adoption

Electric vehicle (EV) adoption is accelerating globally, marking significant progress toward sustainable transportation aligned with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), and SDG 13 (Climate Action). Several countries, including the United States, have surpassed the passenger EV tipping point, where sales reach critical mass and adoption accelerates.

In the United States, the total cost of owning a light-duty EV is now lower than that of a gas-powered vehicle over its lifespan, due to savings on fuel, maintenance, and other recurring costs. According to RMI analysis, EVs save U.S. drivers an estimated $1,000 or more annually, contributing to SDG 1 (No Poverty) by reducing household expenses.

Growth in Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Trucks

The global market for electric medium- and heavy-duty (MHD) trucks is expanding rapidly. Purchase prices are approaching parity with diesel trucks, with some segments expected to reach cost parity by 2028. This price convergence is critical for fleet operators who are highly price sensitive, facilitating a shift toward electric vehicles and supporting SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production).

Advances in Battery Recycling Technology

Battery recycling technologies are improving significantly, contributing to a circular economy and reducing environmental impacts in line with SDG 12. It is estimated that by 2040, enough battery minerals will be in circulation to substantially reduce or eliminate the need for additional mining, supporting sustainable electric transportation indefinitely. This contrasts sharply with the continuous extraction of oil required for gas-powered vehicles, which impacts SDG 15 (Life on Land) and SDG 14 (Life Below Water) due to environmental degradation.

Global EV Adoption Trends and S-Curve Trajectory

Worldwide EV Sales and Market Leadership

1. In 2024, over 17 million new electric cars were sold worldwide, representing 20% of all cars purchased.
2. China led the market with 11 million EV sales, maintaining its position as the largest EV market globally.

EV adoption follows an S-curve trajectory, a pattern observed in other innovative technologies such as wind and solar energy. This trajectory is driven by learning curves, economies of scale, technology reinforcement, and social diffusion, resulting in accelerated adoption rates as markets reach critical thresholds.

Country-Specific Adoption Phases

• China is transitioning into the late majority adoption phase.
• Most major markets, including the United States, have crossed the tipping point for EV adoption acceleration (approximately 1–5% adoption).
• The United States passed 1% adoption in 2017, 5% in 2022, and 10% in 2023.

Despite these milestones, U.S. EV adoption growth slowed to 10% year-on-year in 2024, down from 40% in 2023. To maintain leadership in EV technology and realize benefits such as cleaner air and cost savings, the U.S. must intensify support for EV adoption, aligning with SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and SDG 13.

Economic Benefits and Cost Trends of Electric Vehicles

Declining Total Cost of Ownership

Battery price reductions, economies of scale, and increased market competition have made EVs more affordable. Although upfront costs remain higher in some countries, operating costs are typically lower due to reduced maintenance and cheaper electricity compared to fuel. In the U.S., operating cost savings offset the higher purchase price, enhancing affordability and supporting SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).

Household Savings from EV Ownership

• Average U.S. households save significant amounts annually by driving EVs instead of internal combustion engine vehicles.
• Projected savings are expected to increase over the next five years, making EVs accessible to a broader market segment.

Electric Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks: Approaching Cost Parity

Challenges and Market Developments

Trucking is traditionally a challenging sector to electrify due to price sensitivity and high battery costs. MHD truck batteries have historically been more expensive per kilowatt-hour than those in light-duty vehicles because of design, testing requirements, and limited economies of scale.

Market Expansion and Cost Reduction

• The number of electric MHD truck models exceeds 100 across the United States, China, and Europe.
• Manufacturing efficiencies and battery price convergence are expected within five years, facilitating cost parity with diesel trucks.
• Battery price reductions will accelerate fleet decarbonization, advancing SDG 9 and SDG 13.

Implications for Battery Mineral Mining and Recycling

Resource Extraction Comparison

Globally, oil extraction exceeds by 40% the total weight of ore needed to electrify the entire transportation system. While both EVs and gas-powered vehicles require mined resources, EVs require minerals primarily for battery production, which is a one-time extraction, unlike the continuous fuel demand for gas vehicles.

Recycling and Circular Economy

• Over 90% of lithium and 95% of nickel and cobalt are currently recovered from recycled batteries.
• Advances in recycling reduce costs and environmental impacts, supporting SDG 12 and SDG 13.
• By 2040, approximately 125 million tons of battery minerals will be required, but improved recycling and material efficiency could sustain the battery supply chain indefinitely.

Conclusion and Strategic Recommendations

The global electrification of transportation is advancing rapidly, driven by technological improvements, cost reductions, and increasing environmental awareness. Battery recycling innovations further enhance sustainability by minimizing resource extraction and environmental harm.

For the United States and other nations, this transition presents a critical opportunity to lead in clean vehicle technology, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and achieve multiple SDGs, including:

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
• SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
• SDG 13: Climate Action
• SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being
• SDG 1: No Poverty

Maintaining momentum in EV adoption, supporting cost parity in electric trucks, and advancing battery recycling are essential steps to realize the full environmental, economic, and social benefits of electric transportation worldwide.

1. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Addressed or Connected

1. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

   • The article discusses the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) which rely on electricity, promoting cleaner energy sources compared to fossil fuels.
   • Improvements in battery technology and recycling contribute to sustainable energy use.

2. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

   • Technological advancements in EVs and battery recycling are highlighted, indicating innovation in transport infrastructure.
   • The growth of EV markets and manufacturing efficiencies reflect industrial development.

3. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

   • EV adoption contributes to cleaner air and reduced pollution in urban areas.
   • Improved transportation technologies support sustainable urban development.

4. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production

   • Battery recycling and mineral recovery reduce the need for new mining, promoting sustainable resource use.
   • Efficient material use and recycling align with sustainable consumption.

5. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Switching from gas-powered vehicles to EVs reduces greenhouse gas emissions.
   • Decarbonization of transport is a key climate action strategy.

2. Specific Targets Under Those SDGs Identified

1. SDG 7 Targets

   • Target 7.2: Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
   • Target 7.3: Double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency.

2. SDG 9 Targets

   • Target 9.4: Upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable, with increased resource-use efficiency and greater adoption of clean and environmentally sound technologies.

3. SDG 11 Targets

   • Target 11.6: Reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities, including by paying special attention to air quality.

4. SDG 12 Targets

   • Target 12.5: Substantially reduce waste generation through prevention, reduction, recycling and reuse.

5. SDG 13 Targets

   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied to Measure Progress

1. EV Adoption Rates

   • Percentage of new electric cars sold globally (e.g., 20% of all cars purchased in 2024 were electric).
   • Country-specific EV adoption percentages (e.g., US passed 1%, 5%, and 10% adoption milestones).

2. Cost Metrics

   • Total cost of ownership comparison between EVs and gas-powered vehicles.
   • Annual household savings from driving EVs.
   • Cost parity timelines for medium- and heavy-duty electric trucks compared to diesel trucks.

3. Battery Recycling and Mineral Recovery Rates

   • Percentage of lithium, nickel, and cobalt recovered from recycled batteries (e.g., more than 90% lithium, 95% nickel and cobalt recovery).
   • Projected amount of battery minerals in circulation by 2040 to reduce new mining needs.

4. Environmental Impact Metrics

   • Reduction in oil extraction compared to battery mineral extraction.
   • Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions through EV adoption (implied).

4. Table: SDGs, Targets and Indicators

Source: rmi.org