End times? Scientists warn of ‘potential collapse of natural and socioeconomic systems’ if emissions continue

This year has recorded the highest number of days with global mean temperatures above 1.5 degrees Celsius.

If it is business-as-usual, about one-third to half of the global population will find itself trapped in ‘beyond liveable’ regions, a new study has warned.

2023 State of the Climate Report: Entering uncharted territory

The authors of 2023 State of the Climate Report: Entering uncharted territory, published in the BioScience journal, have warned of a collapse of “natural and socioeconomic systems” as 20 of the 35 planetary vital signs of the Earth used to track climate crises are at their worst in human history.

Record-breaking temperatures

Until September 12, the year 2023 has seen 38 days with global mean temperatures above 1.5 degrees. June, July and August of this year marked the warmest period ever recorded. “In early July, we witnessed the Earth’s highest global daily average surface temperature ever measured, possibly the warmest temperature on Earth over the past 100,000 years,” the scientists said.

Potential consequences

In addition, the year is set to be one of the hottest years on record. If the ongoing situation continues, the researchers estimated that about 3-6 billion people will experience severe heat, reduced food availability and increased mortality rate in the backdrop of climate change.

Warning of collapse

We warn of potential collapse of natural and socioeconomic systems in such a world where we will face unbearable heat, frequent extreme weather events, food and fresh water shortages, rising seas, more emerging diseases, and increased social unrest and geopolitical conflict. Massive suffering due to climate change is already here, and we have now exceeded many safe and just Earth system boundaries, imperilling stability and life-support systems.

Damaged life support systems

In September this year, scientists revealed that the planet’s life support systems such as biosphere integrity (genetic diversity and energy available to ecosystems), land system change, freshwater change (changes across the entire water cycle over land), biogeochemical flows (nutrient cycles), and novel entities (micro plastics, endocrine disruptors, and organic pollutants) and climate change had been so damaged that the planet was “well outside the safe operating space for humanity”.

Extreme weather events

The team of global scientists admitted to being “shocked by the ferocity of extreme weather events” in 2023 and express fear of the uncharted territory that the planet and its inhabitants have entered.

Unprecedented conditions

They pointed to the extraordinary margins by which the 2023 conditions are exceeding past extremes. The report noted the lowest daily relative extent of Antarctic sea ice reached on July 7 was a record low of 2.67 million square kilometres than the 1991-2023 average.

Anthropogenic global heating

The researchers noted that anthropogenic global heating, along with environmental factors, is a significant driver of recent weather extremes. They observed that rising Atlantic Ocean temperatures might be linked to rainfall in the Sahel and African dust. Water vapour, a greenhouse gas released into the stratosphere by underwater volcanic eruptions, may be another driver.

Pushing planetary systems into instability

“The recent rise may also be linked to a regulatory change mandating the use of low-sulphur fuels in ocean shipping, because atmospheric sulphate aerosols directly scatter sunlight and cause reflective clouds to form,” the assessment stated.

Impacts on El Nino

The onset of an El Nino event this year could also be the reason for the sudden increase in temperatures and itself could be affected by climate change.

Other alarming trends

The report noted that annual coal consumption increased to a near all-time high of 161.5 exajoules in 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which started in 2022, accelerated the subsidy on fossil fuels by 107 per cent — to $1,097 billion in 2022, from $531 billion in 2021.

Moreover, the global tree cover loss rate reduced to 11.3 per cent from 9.7 per cent in 2021-2022, but is not on track to reverse deforestation by 2030.

The report also took note of greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide crossing record levels.

Devastating effects on sea life

Global average carbon dioxide levels now stand at roughly 420 parts per million, against the proposed planetary boundary of 350 parts per million. The scientists estimate that rising sea surface temperatures and heat waves could have devastating effects on sea life, death of coral reefs because of bleaching and increased intensity of large tropical storms.

Potential collapse of global precipitation and temperature patterns

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may cross the tipping point and start to collapse between 2025 and 2095, which will result in extreme alterations of global precipitation and temperature patterns.

Increase in extreme weather events

The report has taken note of increasing human suffering due to extreme weather events triggered by climate change such as the flooding in northern China, flash floods and landslides in northern India, extreme record breaking heat waves in the United States and the intense Mediterranean storm that killed thousands in Libya.

Impact on hunger

Undernourishment had been on the decline for years. But, the population facing chronic hunger has increased in 2022 to 735 million, an additional of 122 million since the pre-pandemic year of 2019.

Urgent policy recommendations

The scientists call for urgent and immediate policy recommendations beginning with economic growth. To mitigate the fossil fuel emissions ongoing for decades and stop global heating, it recommends eliminating emissions, increasing carbon sequestration and change in land-use.