Global warming – Climate Change, Impacts, Solutions – Britannica

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Future Climate Change

Simulations of future climate change

1. The path of future climate change will depend on the actions taken by society, particularly in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels.
2. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has proposed various emission scenarios to examine potential future climate changes, considering factors such as population growth, economic development, energy demand, technological advancement, and climate mitigation.
3. These scenarios are based on different assumptions and use various climate models, resulting in disparities between the simulations.
4. Lower-end emissions scenarios, which assume immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, have a reasonable chance of limiting global surface warming by 2100 to less than 2.0 °C (3.6 °F), a threshold above which pervasive and extreme climatic effects are expected.

Patterns of warming

• The polar region of the Northern Hemisphere is experiencing the greatest increase in near-surface air temperature due to the melting of sea ice and the associated reduction in surface albedo.
• Warming is predicted to be greater over land areas than over the ocean.
• The Northern Hemisphere, with less surface area covered by water, is expected to warm faster than the Southern Hemisphere.
• Regional variation in warming is influenced by changes to wind patterns and ocean currents in response to surface warming.

Changes in precipitation patterns

1. Global warming is projected to lead to changes in precipitation patterns.
2. Increased precipitation is predicted in polar and subpolar regions, while decreased precipitation is expected in the middle latitudes of both hemispheres.
3. Precipitation near the Equator is predicted to increase, while rainfall in the subtropics is expected to decrease.
4. These changes are associated with a forecasted strengthening of the tropical Hadley cell pattern of atmospheric circulation.

Regional predictions

• Uncertainties in the precise patterns of atmospheric winds and ocean currents limit regional predictions of future climate change.
• Changes in the frequency and magnitude of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which influence regional patterns of precipitation and temperature, introduce uncertainties in certain regional climate change patterns.
• For example, increased El Niño activity could lead to more winter precipitation in some regions, offsetting drought conditions, but also causing less precipitation in other regions.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

1. SDGs Addressed

   • SDG 13: Climate Action

2. Specific Targets

   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning
   • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning
   • Target 13.a: Implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion annually by 2020 from all sources to address the needs of developing countries in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation and fully operationalize the Green Climate Fund through its capitalization as soon as possible

3. Indicators

   • Indicator 13.1.1: Number of deaths, missing persons, and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
   • Indicator 13.2.1: Number of countries that have integrated mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning into primary, secondary, and tertiary curricula
   • Indicator 13.3.1: Number of countries that have communicated the strengthening of institutional, systemic, and individual capacity-building to implement adaptation, mitigation, and technology transfer
   • Indicator 13.a.1: Mobilized amount of United States dollars per year between 2020 and 2025 accountable towards the $100 billion commitment

Analysis

The article discusses future climate change and its potential impacts. The issues highlighted in the article are directly connected to SDG 13: Climate Action. The article mentions the emission of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels as a key factor in future climate change, which aligns with the goal of SDG 13 to take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.

Based on the content of the article, the following specific targets under SDG 13 can be identified:

1. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters – The article mentions the potential for extreme climatic effects and changes in precipitation patterns, which highlight the need to strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity.
2. Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning – The article discusses the various assumptions and scenarios proposed by the IPCC to examine potential future climate changes, indicating the importance of integrating climate change measures into policies and planning.
3. Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning – The article mentions the need for education and awareness-raising on climate change mitigation, adaptation, and impact reduction, as well as the importance of strengthening institutional capacity.
4. Target 13.a: Implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion annually by 2020 from all sources to address the needs of developing countries in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation and fully operationalize the Green Climate Fund through its capitalization as soon as possible – The article references the commitment to mobilize $100 billion annually to address the needs of developing countries in the context of climate change mitigation actions.

The article also mentions or implies several indicators that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets:

• Indicator 13.1.1: Number of deaths, missing persons, and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population – This indicator can measure progress in strengthening resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters.
• Indicator 13.2.1: Number of countries that have integrated mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning into primary, secondary, and tertiary curricula – This indicator can measure progress in integrating climate change measures into national policies and education systems.
• Indicator 13.3.1: Number of countries that have communicated the strengthening of institutional, systemic, and individual capacity-building to implement adaptation, mitigation, and technology transfer – This indicator can measure progress in improving education, awareness-raising, and capacity-building on climate change.
• Indicator 13.a.1: Mobilized amount of United States dollars per year between 2020 and 2025 accountable towards the $100 billion commitment – This indicator can measure progress in implementing the commitment to mobilize $100 billion annually for climate change mitigation and adaptation in developing countries.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: britannica.com