Executive Summary: Crime Trends and Progress Towards Sustainable Development Goal 16

A mid-year analysis of crime trends in 42 U.S. cities, released by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), indicates significant progress towards achieving Sustainable Development Goal 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions). Data from the first half of the year reveals a continued decline in homicide and other violent crimes, with levels falling below those recorded prior to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. This trend directly supports SDG Target 16.1, which calls for a significant reduction in all forms of violence and related death rates. However, the report also highlights persistent challenges, including a rise in domestic violence incidents, which conflicts with SDG 5 (Gender Equality), and elevated rates of motor vehicle theft, impacting SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).

Detailed Analysis of Crime Trends and SDG Alignment

Short-Term Progress (Mid-Year Comparison)

The comparison between the first six months of this year and the same period last year shows a broad reduction across most offense categories, reinforcing efforts to build safer communities.

• Homicide Reduction: The number of homicides fell by 17% across 30 reporting cities. This marks substantial progress towards SDG Target 16.1. Twenty-five of the 30 cities recorded a decrease.
• Decline in Violent and Property Crimes: Significant decreases were observed in gun assaults (-21%), robberies (-20%), residential burglaries (-19%), and shoplifting (-12%). These reductions contribute to creating the safe and inclusive environments envisioned in SDG 11.
• Challenges to Gender Equality (SDG 5): Domestic violence was the only offense to increase, rising by 3%. This finding underscores a critical area requiring targeted intervention to achieve SDG Target 5.2 (Eliminate all forms of violence against all women and girls).
• Motor Vehicle Theft: After a period of sharp increases, motor vehicle theft declined by 25%, a positive development for community safety and security.

Long-Term Perspective (Comparison to Pre-Pandemic Levels)

A longer-term view comparing current data to mid-year 2019 provides a more nuanced picture of the progress towards establishing peaceful and just societies.

• Sustained Reductions in Violence: Compared to 2019, there were 14% fewer homicides, 30% fewer robberies, and 28% fewer sexual assaults. These figures demonstrate a meaningful move toward the goals of SDG 16.
• Persistent Challenges: Despite overall progress, more than 60% of the cities studied continue to experience homicide levels above pre-2020 rates. Furthermore, motor vehicle theft remains 25% higher than in 2019, posing an ongoing threat to community stability and sustainability under SDG 11.

The Increasing Lethality of Violence: A Challenge to SDG 16.1

Separate CCJ analyses reveal a concerning trend that complicates the narrative of declining violence. While the frequency of violent crime has decreased, the proportion of incidents that result in death has risen, presenting a direct challenge to the core objective of SDG Target 16.1.

Key Findings on Lethality:

• The share of violent crime ending in death was approximately 3.6 times higher in 2020 than in 1994.
• The ratio of homicides per 1,000 assaults rose from 2.0 in 1994 to 7.2 in 2020.
• A more recent study of 17 large U.S. cities found that the lethality of violence was 20% higher in 2024 than in 2018.

This trend suggests that while fewer high-risk situations may be occurring, those that do are more likely to be fatal, demanding a deeper understanding of the factors driving this increased deadliness.

Recommendations for Strengthening Institutions and Ensuring Public Safety (SDG 16 & SDG 11)

The report’s authors emphasize that declining crime rates should not lead to complacency. Instead, this period offers an opportunity to strengthen institutional capacity and invest in long-term solutions that align with the Sustainable Development Goals.

1. Invest in Evidence-Based Strategies

   Sustained investment in proven crime reduction strategies is crucial to maintain momentum. This aligns with the mission of SDG 16 to build effective, accountable, and inclusive institutions at all levels.

2. Enhance Data Collection and Analysis

   To build stronger institutions (SDG 16.A) and craft effective policies for safe cities (SDG 11), it is essential to close key gaps in criminal justice data. The CCJ’s Crime Trends Working Group identified a need for better information on:

   • Non-fatal gun violence
   • White-collar crime
   • Environmental crime
   • Cybercrimes

3. Prioritize Research and Understanding

   Policymakers and philanthropic organizations are urged to use this period of declining street crime to improve the national understanding and measurement of all crime. A greater investment in research is needed to prepare for future trends and ensure public safety remains a priority, thereby securing the foundations of peaceful and sustainable societies for all.

SDGs Addressed in the Article

The article on crime trends in U.S. cities addresses several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by focusing on public safety, violence, and the effectiveness of justice systems. The primary SDGs connected to the issues are:

• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
• SDG 5: Gender Equality
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

This is the most relevant SDG as the entire article is an analysis of crime and violence. It discusses homicide, various forms of assault, and property crimes, which are central to the goal of promoting peaceful and inclusive societies. The article’s source, the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), is an institution working to advance understanding and find solutions for criminal justice challenges, directly aligning with the “Strong Institutions” aspect of this goal.

SDG 5: Gender Equality

The article specifically mentions trends in domestic violence and sexual assault. It notes that “Domestic violence was the only offense that rose” in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, with a 3% increase. It also reports a decrease in sexual assaults. These data points directly relate to the SDG 5 goal of eliminating all forms of violence against women and girls.

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

The analysis is explicitly city-focused, examining crime trends in “42 American cities.” Public safety is a cornerstone of creating sustainable, safe, and resilient urban environments. High rates of violent and property crime, such as robbery, burglary, and motor vehicle theft, directly impact the safety and quality of life in cities, making this SDG highly relevant.

Specific SDG Targets Identified

Based on the article’s content, several specific targets under the identified SDGs can be pinpointed.

Targets under SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

• Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere. The article is a direct examination of this target. It provides detailed statistics on the reduction of homicide (“17% lower when comparing the first half of 2025 to the same period in 2024”), gun assaults, robberies, and other violent crimes. It also analyzes the “lethality” of violence, finding that “the share of violence that ends in death was about 3.6 times higher in 2020 than in 1994,” which is a critical aspect of “related death rates.”
• Target 16.3: Promote the rule of law at the national and international levels and ensure equal access to justice for all. The article supports this target by highlighting the work of the CCJ, which “advances understanding of the criminal justice policy challenges” and calls for “evidence-based crime reduction strategies.” This focus on data, research, and effective policy is fundamental to promoting the rule of law and improving justice systems.

Targets under SDG 5: Gender Equality

• Target 5.2: Eliminate all forms of violence against all women and girls in the public and private spheres. The article’s specific data on domestic violence and sexual assault directly relates to this target. It reports that “domestic violence incidents increased 3%” and “sexual assaults (-10%) all fell in the first six months of 2025.” These statistics track progress (or lack thereof) in eliminating violence that disproportionately affects women and girls.

Targets under SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

• Target 11.7: By 2030, provide universal access to safe, inclusive and accessible, green and public spaces. The safety of a city is a prerequisite for its residents to use public spaces freely. The article’s discussion of declining street crimes like robberies, assaults, and larcenies contributes to achieving this target. Reducing crime makes urban environments safer and more inclusive for everyone.

Indicators for Measuring Progress

The article mentions or implies several indicators that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets.

Indicators for SDG 16

• Indicator 16.1.1: Number of victims of intentional homicide per 100,000 population. The article provides extensive data on homicide trends, stating there were “327 fewer homicides” in the study cities and that the homicide rate was “17% lower” in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024. This is a direct measure for this indicator.
• Indicator 16.1.3: Proportion of population subjected to physical, psychological or sexual violence. The article provides percentage changes for multiple forms of violence, which serve as direct measures for this indicator. Examples include data on “gun assaults (-21%),” “robberies (-20%),” and “aggravated and sexual assaults (-10%).”
• Proxy Indicator: Rate of property crime. While not an official SDG indicator, the rates of property crime discussed in the article, such as “motor vehicle thefts” (-25%), “residential burglaries” (-19%), and “larcenies” (-5%), serve as strong proxy indicators for the overall safety and stability of a society, which is the essence of SDG 16.

Indicators for SDG 5

• Indicator 5.2.1: Proportion of ever-partnered women and girls subjected to physical, sexual or psychological violence by a current or former intimate partner. The statistic that “domestic violence incidents increased 3%” is a direct, albeit not fully disaggregated, measure for this indicator.
• Indicator 5.2.2: Proportion of women and girls subjected to sexual violence by persons other than an intimate partner. The reported “10%” decrease in “sexual assaults” serves as a measure for this indicator, tracking violence against individuals in the public sphere.

Indicators for SDG 11

• Proxy Indicator: Crime rates in urban areas. The entire report, focusing on crime trends in 42 cities, acts as a comprehensive set of proxy indicators for the safety of human settlements. Specific data points like the decrease in carjackings (-24%), robberies (-20%), and burglaries (-19%) directly measure the safety component of sustainable cities.

Summary of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: counciloncj.org