I Thought Climate Change Would End the World. I Was Wrong. – The Free Press

Analysis of Climate Change Narratives and Sustainable Development Goals

Re-evaluation of Apocalyptic Climate Scenarios

A previously articulated position, presented in the 2007 publication Break Through, posited that continued reliance on fossil fuels at then-current rates would result in assured catastrophic outcomes. The author has since recanted this viewpoint, classifying the initial assertions as “hyperbole.”

The original argument forecasted several critical global crises stemming from unabated fossil fuel consumption. These included:

1. Significant sea-level rise due to planetary heating.
2. The ecological collapse of the Amazon rainforest.
3. The outbreak of armed conflicts over essential resources such as food and water, referencing scenarios reportedly commissioned by the Pentagon.

Intersection with United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The forecasted catastrophic events directly correlate with several key Sustainable Development Goals, highlighting the interconnectedness of climate, environmental stability, and human security.

• SDG 13: Climate Action: The core premise of the argument—that burning fossil fuels drives catastrophic heating—is central to the mission of SDG 13, which urges immediate action to combat climate change and its impacts.
• SDG 14: Life Below Water & SDG 15: Life on Land: The predictions of rising sea levels and the collapse of the Amazon ecosystem directly threaten the objectives of SDG 14 and SDG 15, which aim to protect marine and terrestrial ecosystems, respectively.
• SDG 2: Zero Hunger & SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation: The projection of wars over food and water underscores the fragility of systems targeted by SDG 2 and SDG 6. Climate-induced resource scarcity poses a direct threat to achieving food security and ensuring the availability of clean water.
• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions: The scenario of resource-driven conflict directly undermines the goal of promoting peaceful and inclusive societies. It suggests that failure to achieve environmental and resource-related SDGs could lead to a breakdown of peace and institutional stability.

Analysis of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article, by referencing past catastrophic scenarios, touches upon several Sustainable Development Goals. The issues of climate change, ecosystem collapse, and resource conflict directly connect to the following SDGs:

• SDG 13: Climate Action: The core issue discussed is the “heating of the earth” due to burning fossil fuels, which is the central focus of this goal.
• SDG 15: Life on Land: The potential for the “Amazon to collapse” directly relates to the protection, restoration, and sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, particularly forests.
• SDG 14: Life Below Water: The consequence of rising sea levels affects marine and coastal ecosystems, which is a key concern of SDG 14.
• SDG 2: Zero Hunger: The mention of potential “wars over the basic resources like food” connects directly to the goal of ending hunger and ensuring food security.
• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation: The article highlights the risk of “wars over the basic resources like… water,” which relates to the goal of ensuring the availability and sustainable management of water.
• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions: The scenario of “wars over… basic resources” is a direct threat to peaceful and inclusive societies, a core aspect of this goal.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the specific threats mentioned in the article, the following targets can be identified:

1. Under SDG 13 (Climate Action):
   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters everywhere. The article’s mention of rising sea levels points to a specific climate-related hazard that this target aims to address.
2. Under SDG 15 (Life on Land):
   • Target 15.2: Promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests and substantially increase afforestation and reforestation globally. The scenario of an “Amazon to collapse” is the direct opposite of this target’s objective.
3. Under SDG 2 (Zero Hunger):
   • Target 2.1: By 2030, end hunger and ensure access by all people… to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round. The prospect of “wars over… food” highlights a critical threat to achieving this target.
4. Under SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation):
   • Target 6.4: By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity. The fear of “wars over… water” underscores the importance of managing water resources sustainably to prevent conflict.
5. Under SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions):
   • Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere. The prediction of “a series of wars” directly contradicts the aim of this target.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

The article does not mention explicit, numerical SDG indicators. However, the descriptive language implies several phenomena that are measured by official indicators:

• “The heating of the earth”: This implies the measurement of global temperature change and greenhouse gas emissions, which are key metrics for SDG 13.
• “Sea levels to rise”: The rate of sea-level rise is a direct indicator of climate change impacts, relevant to Target 13.1.
• “The Amazon to collapse”: This implies indicators related to forest health and land cover, such as Indicator 15.1.1 (Forest area as a proportion of total land area). A collapse would be measured by a drastic negative change in this indicator for the Amazon region.
• “Wars over the basic resources like food and water”: This implies indicators of conflict and instability, such as Indicator 16.1.2 (Conflict-related deaths per 100,000 population). It also implies a severe lack of food and water security, which are measured under SDG 2 and SDG 6, respectively.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: thefp.com