Climate Model Simulates Unusually High Heat over the Southern Ocean – Eos

Climate Model Simulates Unusually High Heat over the Southern Ocean

Introduction

Researchers around the world are advancing and refining climate models to predict the effects of climate change. These models use information about our planet’s chemical, physical, and biological processes to create simulations of potential climate pathways.

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)

An international collaboration known as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) enables teams to compare and combine various models according to standardized frameworks, strengthening climate predictions and illuminating paths for further model advancement.

The CMIP6 and DAMIP

The most recently released phase of CMIP, CMIP6, includes a component called the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP). DAMIP focuses specifically on the relative contributions of various drivers of climate change, such as greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol emissions, and volcanic eruptions.

Contributions of the Met Office Hadley Centre

In a new paper, Jones et al. outline how the United Kingdom’s Met Office Hadley Centre—a climate change research center home to the climate model HadGEM3-GC3.1—has contributed to DAMIP. Following DAMIP’s standardized experimental framework, the researchers used HadGEM3-GC3.1 to simulate how air temperatures just above Earth’s surface respond to different human and natural drivers around the world. Then they compared these temperatures with those simulated by other climate models that are part of DAMIP and CMIP6.

Findings and Implications

Overall, the near-surface air temperatures predicted by HadGEM3-GC3.1 were consistent with combined predictions from other CMIP6 models. However, HadGEM3-GC3.1 simulated unusual patterns of air temperature over just the Southern Ocean. Its simulations—most prominently those focusing on the atmospheric effects of aerosols—showed occasional warming caused by deep, warm ocean waters rising to the surface. In these simulations, high southern latitudes heated up while the rest of the globe cooled, a pattern that was not reflected in simulations from other climate models.

These findings could help inform future efforts to combine model simulations that feature different human and natural drivers of climate change. The authors also encourage other institutions to contribute model simulations to DAMIP, all with an eye toward high-precision climate forecasting.

Conclusion

The research conducted by the Met Office Hadley Centre and its contribution to DAMIP highlights the importance of collaborative efforts in advancing climate modeling and understanding the drivers of climate change. By comparing and combining various models, researchers can improve climate predictions and work towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) outlined by the United Nations.

Citation

Citation: Stanley, S. (2024), Climate model simulates unusually high heat over the Southern Ocean, Eos, 105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EO240373. Published on 21 August 2024.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 13: Climate Action

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

• Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters
• Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning
• Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Indicator 13.1.1: Number of deaths, missing persons, and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
• Indicator 13.2.1: Number of countries that have communicated the establishment or operationalization of an integrated policy/strategy/plan which increases their ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change, and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development in a manner that does not threaten food production
• Indicator 13.3.1: Number of countries that have integrated mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning into primary, secondary, and tertiary curricula

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: eos.org