Global Perceptions of Extreme Weather and Support for Climate Policy

A Report on Public Attribution and its Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction and Research Scope

A multi-disciplinary research initiative investigated the connection between public experience with extreme weather events and support for climate change policies. The study utilized data from approximately 72,000 individuals across 68 countries, including a significant cohort of over 7,000 participants from 12 African nations (Botswana, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, and Uganda). The primary objective was to assess how personal experience with events like floods, droughts, and heatwaves influences public perception and willingness to support governmental actions necessary to achieve SDG 13 (Climate Action).

Key Findings on Public Perception and Policy Support

Subjective Attribution of Extreme Weather to Climate Change

The research measured “subjective attribution,” defined as an individual’s belief that a specific, personally experienced weather event was caused by climate change. Key findings indicate:

• A high level of subjective attribution was observed globally, particularly in Latin America, where citizens reported strong beliefs that climate change poses a significant threat.
• Conversely, public attribution of extreme weather to climate change was notably lower in the 12 African countries studied.
• This awareness gap in Africa poses a significant challenge to building the public consensus required for robust climate policy, despite the continent’s high vulnerability to climate impacts which threaten progress on SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger).

The Critical Link Between Attribution and Policy Support

A central finding of the report is that direct exposure to an extreme weather event does not automatically translate into support for climate policies. The determining factor is the individual’s perception that climate change was the cause of the event. Individuals who experienced an event and attributed it to climate change were significantly more likely to support mitigation policies. For example, exposure to wildfires, which is often linked to climate change in public discourse, correlated with higher policy support. In contrast, exposure to heavy rainfall was associated with lower support, suggesting a weaker public connection between this specific event and broader climate change trends.

Analysis of Climate Policy Preferences and SDG Alignment

The study assessed public support for five distinct climate mitigation policies, each corresponding to key Sustainable Development Goals. The policies and their global support levels reveal clear public preferences for constructive, future-oriented solutions over punitive tax-based measures.

Assessed Climate Mitigation Policies

1. Protecting forests and natural land areas: Directly supports SDG 15 (Life on Land).
2. Increasing the use of sustainable energy (solar, wind): A core target of SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy).
3. Expanding infrastructure for public transportation: Contributes to SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).
4. Raising taxes on fossil fuels (coal, gas): A fiscal tool to advance SDG 13 (Climate Action).
5. Increasing taxes on carbon-intensive foods (beef, dairy): A measure related to SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production).

Public Support for Policies

• High Support: Policies aligned with SDG 15 (forest protection) and SDG 7 (renewable energy) were overwhelmingly popular, garnering 82% and 75% global support, respectively. This trend was consistent within the African nations surveyed.
• Low Support: Carbon taxes on fuel and food were significantly less popular, with only 29% and 22% support, respectively. This reluctance is likely linked to concerns about economic impact, particularly in regions with high levels of poverty and inequality, highlighting a potential conflict with SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) if not implemented equitably.

Recommendations for Advancing Climate Action through Public Engagement

The findings underscore the urgent need for enhanced public engagement and communication to build support for comprehensive climate policies, particularly in Africa. To advance the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, governments and stakeholders must focus on bridging the perception gap.

• Leverage Teachable Moments: Extreme weather events should be utilized as opportunities for targeted communication, explaining the scientific links to climate change to foster higher public attribution.
• Promote SDG Co-Benefits: Communication must clearly articulate the tangible benefits of climate policies, such as improved air quality from investments in SDG 7, or enhanced urban mobility from progress on SDG 11.
• Foster Partnerships: Achieving widespread public buy-in requires a collaborative effort. This aligns with SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals) and necessitates that scientists, educators, journalists, and civil society work together to translate complex climate science into relatable information.
• Incorporate Public Opinion: Effective policy-making requires an understanding of public values and concerns. Acknowledging public reluctance towards punitive measures and focusing on positive incentives is crucial for designing policies that are both effective and socially acceptable. This approach is fundamental to the successful implementation of SDG 13 and related goals.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  The entire article is centered on climate change, its connection to extreme weather events, public perception of this link, and support for climate policies. It directly addresses the need for action to combat climate change and its impacts.

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

  The article explicitly mentions policies related to energy, such as “Increasing the use of sustainable energy, such as wind and solar power” and “Raising taxes on fossil fuels, like coal and gas.” This connects directly to the goal of ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy.

• SDG 15: Life on Land

  The research discussed in the article measured public support for a policy of “Protecting forests and natural land areas,” which was found to be the most popular policy globally. This aligns with the goal of protecting, restoring, and promoting the sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems.

• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

  One of the climate policies studied was “Expanding infrastructure for public transportation, so that there are fewer private cars on the road.” This is a key component of making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable.

• SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production

  The article discusses a proposed policy of “Increasing taxes on foods like beef or dairy that are carbon intensive.” This relates to promoting sustainable production patterns by discouraging the consumption of goods with high environmental footprints.

• SDG 4: Quality Education

  A central theme of the article is the gap in public understanding and the need for better communication. It states, “Our findings highlight the importance of public engagement on climate change… Scientists, educators, journalists and civil society all have roles in explaining the ‘why’ behind the weather.” This directly relates to ensuring inclusive and equitable quality education and promoting lifelong learning opportunities for all, specifically regarding education for sustainable development.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning. The article’s core argument is that public awareness and understanding are crucial for policy support. It highlights that in Africa, “public awareness of climate change effects remains low,” and calls for communication and engagement to help people “connect what they feel with what science shows us.”
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning. The article discusses five specific climate policies that governments could implement and measures public support for them, emphasizing the need for “public buy-in for their implementation and enactment.”

2. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

   • Target 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. The article identifies “Increasing the use of sustainable energy, such as wind and solar power” as a key policy with 75% global support, directly aligning with this target.

3. SDG 15: Life on Land

   • Target 15.2: By 2020, promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests and substantially increase afforestation and reforestation globally. The policy of “Protecting forests and natural land areas” is mentioned as having the highest public support (82%), which is a direct action towards achieving this target.

4. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

   • Target 11.2: By 2030, provide access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport systems for all… notably by expanding public transport. The article mentions the policy of “Expanding infrastructure for public transportation” as a method to mitigate climate change, which directly contributes to this target.

5. SDG 4: Quality Education

   • Target 4.7: By 2030, ensure that all learners acquire the knowledge and skills needed to promote sustainable development… The article’s conclusion emphasizes that “climate communication is important” and that “Extreme weather events are ‘teachable moments’: opportunities to explain climate change to the public.” This directly supports the goal of education for sustainable development.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

The article mentions or implies several indicators through the research it describes:

1. For Target 13.3 (Climate Education and Awareness):

   • Indicator (Implied): Percentage of the population that attributes specific extreme weather events to climate change. The article refers to this as “subjective attribution” and notes that the research “measured whether individuals believe a specific recent event they experienced (like a heatwave or flood) was caused by climate change.”
   • Indicator (Implied): Level of public support for climate policies. The study measured this by asking about five specific policies, providing percentage support for each, such as “82% global support” for protecting forests and “22% and 29% support, respectively” for carbon taxes on food and fuel.

2. For Target 7.2 (Renewable Energy):

   • Indicator (Implied): Percentage of public support for increasing the use of renewable energy. The article explicitly states this was measured and found to be “75% global support.”

3. For Target 15.2 (Forest Management):

   • Indicator (Implied): Percentage of public support for protecting forests and natural land areas. The article provides a direct measurement from the study: “This had 82% global support.”

4. For Target 11.2 (Sustainable Transport):

   • Indicator (Implied): Level of public support for expanding public transportation infrastructure. While a specific percentage isn’t given for this policy alone, the article confirms it was one of the five policies for which public support was measured.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: theconversation.com