Tuna fisheries most at risk from climate change, new research suggests – Global Seafood Alliance

Report on the Vulnerability of Global Fisheries to Climate Change and Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

1.0 Introduction

A study published in Cell Reports Sustainability and led by the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) provides a comprehensive analysis of the climate-related risks facing over 500 sustainably certified fisheries worldwide. The findings reveal that ocean warming is causing significant shifts in fish stock distribution, creating profound challenges for international fisheries management. This report summarizes the study’s key findings, with a significant emphasis on their direct implications for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 14 (Life Below Water) and SDG 13 (Climate Action).

2.0 Key Findings: Climate-Induced Risks to Marine Ecosystems

The research assessed 19 seafood categories to create a risk index based on exposure to climate-related pressures. The results indicate a clear hierarchy of vulnerability among different types of fisheries.

• Highest Risk Fisheries: Fisheries targeting highly migratory species, such as tuna, face the greatest risks. They are followed by those catching small pelagic fish (mackerel, herring) and whitefish (cod, haddock).
• Mechanism of Impact: Rising ocean temperatures are the primary driver, forcing species to migrate towards cooler waters. This alters their traditional habitats and abundance, disrupting marine ecosystems and the fisheries that depend on them.
• Lower Risk Fisheries: Fisheries targeting sedentary or seabed-dwelling invertebrates like bivalves, crabs, and prawns were found to be least affected by cross-jurisdictional management challenges. However, they remain vulnerable to other climate impacts such as ocean acidification and marine heatwaves, which fall outside the scope of this study.

3.0 Implications for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The redistribution of fish stocks poses a direct threat to the achievement of multiple SDGs. The transboundary nature of this climate impact necessitates a globally coordinated response.

3.1 SDG 14: Life Below Water

The study’s findings are critically relevant to the conservation and sustainable use of oceans.

• Threat to SDG Target 14.4 (End Overfishing): As fish stocks cross from national waters into the high seas or into the jurisdictions of other nations, existing management agreements become obsolete. This increases the risk of international disputes over catch limits and can lead to unsustainable fishing practices.
• Challenge to SDG Target 14.c (Conserve and Sustainably Use Oceans): The failure of governance structures to adapt to shifting stocks undermines the international legal frameworks designed to protect marine resources.

3.2 Broader Socio-Economic and Environmental SDGs

The impacts extend beyond marine health, affecting human well-being and economic stability.

• SDG 13 (Climate Action): The report serves as stark evidence of the tangible impacts of climate change, reinforcing the urgent need for global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
• SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): The potential decline or relocation of key fish stocks threatens regional food security, particularly for coastal and island nations that rely on seafood as a primary source of protein.
• SDG 1 (No Poverty) & SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth): The economic viability of fishing communities is at risk. For some Small Island Developing States, where tuna fisheries are a cornerstone of the economy, the impact could be devastating, jeopardizing livelihoods and national economic growth.
• SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals): The study underscores that unilateral actions are insufficient. Effective management of shifting stocks is only possible through strengthened international cooperation among governments and fisheries management organizations.

4.0 Recommendations for Policy and Management

To mitigate the identified risks and ensure progress towards the SDGs, the study calls for urgent and coordinated action from governments and international management bodies, especially ahead of the COP30 climate negotiations.

1. Strengthen International Cooperation: Governments and Regional Fisheries Management Organisations (RFMOs) must collaborate to manage transboundary fish stocks proactively, in line with SDG 17.
2. Implement Adaptive Management Frameworks: Management systems must become more flexible. This includes adopting “adaptive allocations” that adjust national catch quotas in response to scientifically verified shifts in species distribution.
3. Accelerate Climate Change Mitigation: A renewed global commitment to cutting greenhouse gas emissions is essential to slow ocean warming and protect the long-term health of marine ecosystems and fisheries, directly addressing SDG 13.
4. Support Vulnerable Fisheries: The international community must recognize that non-certified fisheries, often operating with weaker management systems, are likely even more vulnerable. Targeted support is needed to help these fisheries adapt.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

1. SDG 14: Life Below Water
   • The article’s central theme is the impact of climate change on marine ecosystems, specifically fisheries. It discusses the health of fish stocks (tuna, mackerel, cod), the risk of overfishing, and the need for sustainable management of marine resources.
2. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • The article explicitly identifies “climate change” and “ocean warming” as the primary drivers of the problems facing fisheries. It mentions the need to “cut greenhouse gas emissions” and calls for adaptive management strategies to cope with climate effects.
3. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
   • A key recommendation in the article is the need for “stronger international cooperation” and “cross-border cooperation on fish stock management.” It emphasizes that governments and regional fisheries management organizations must “work closely together” to address the issue of shifting fish stocks.
4. SDG 2: Zero Hunger
   • The article connects the threat to fisheries directly to human well-being by highlighting the need to protect “regional food security,” which is jeopardized by the potential collapse or mismanagement of vital fish stocks like tuna.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Under SDG 14 (Life Below Water):
   • Target 14.2: By 2020, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts. The article discusses how ocean warming is altering these ecosystems, causing fish to move and threatening their abundance.
   • Target 14.4: By 2020, effectively regulate harvesting and end overfishing, illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing and destructive fishing practices. The article warns that as fish cross new boundaries, it increases the “risk of disputes over catch limits and overfishing.”
   • Target 14.7: By 2030, increase the economic benefits to Small Island developing States (SIDS) and least developed countries from the sustainable use of marine resources. The article states that for “developing small island states, the impact on their economies could be devastating.”
2. Under SDG 13 (Climate Action):
   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. The article calls for “adaptive allocations” and for fisheries management to be “responsive to the challenges of climate change.”
3. Under SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals):
   • Target 17.14: Enhance policy coherence for sustainable development. The article highlights how existing agreements “quickly become obsolete because the fish stocks have moved,” pointing to a need for more coherent and adaptive international policies.
   • Target 17.16: Enhance the global partnership for sustainable development, complemented by multi-stakeholder partnerships. The call for governments and “the five tuna regional fisheries management organisations” to “work closely together” directly reflects this target.
4. Under SDG 2 (Zero Hunger):
   • Target 2.1: By 2030, end hunger and ensure access by all people… to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round. The article’s concern for “regional food security” links the stability of fish stocks to this target.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. Changes in Fish Migration Routes:
   • The article explicitly mentions that “migratory species are shifting toward cooler waters,” citing the return of Atlantic bluefin tuna to UK waters and the eastward movement of Pacific tuna. Tracking these shifts can serve as an indicator of the impact of climate change on marine ecosystems (relevant to Target 14.2).
2. National Catch Quotas and Allocations:
   • The article discusses the risk of “disputes over catch limits” and recommends “adaptive allocations – adjusting national catch quotas as species move.” The status and adjustment of these quotas can be used as an indicator to measure the effectiveness of fisheries management and efforts to prevent overfishing (relevant to Target 14.4).
3. International and Regional Fisheries Agreements:
   • The call for “stronger international cooperation” and for fisheries management organizations to adapt implies that the number and effectiveness of cross-border agreements on managing shifting stocks can be a key indicator of progress (relevant to Target 17.16).
4. Economic Impact on Small Island Developing States (SIDS):
   • The article warns of a “devastating” impact on the economies of SIDS. Therefore, tracking the economic contribution of tuna fisheries to the GDP of these states would be a direct indicator of whether the benefits from marine resources are being sustained (relevant to Target 14.7).

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: globalseafood.org