World falls short on Paris climate goals after decade – Finance & Commerce

Global Climate Action Assessment: A Decade Post-Paris Agreement

Executive Summary

A decade after the 2015 Paris Agreement, an assessment of global climate action reveals a significant gap between established goals and current progress. While advancements have been made in reducing long-term warming projections, the acceleration of climate change impacts is outpacingsociety’s transition to sustainable practices. This report analyzes the progress and shortfalls in relation to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), focusing on climate action, clean energy, and environmental stability ahead of international negotiations in Belem, Brazil.

Progress and Shortfalls in Achieving SDG 13 (Climate Action)

Emissions and Temperature Trajectory

The primary objective of SDG 13, to take urgent action to combat climate change, is facing significant challenges. The world is not on track to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

• Global warming has accelerated more rapidly than anticipated, with a 0.46°C increase since 2015.
• Current projections indicate a warming trajectory of 2.8°C, far exceeding the 1.5°C target considered a critical threshold for planetary safety.
• Atmospheric pollution continues to rise, undermining climate goals:
  1. Carbon dioxide levels have increased by 5.8% since 2015.
  2. Methane levels have increased by 5.2% in the same period.

Disparities in Global Emissions and Responsibility

Progress towards SDG 13 is uneven, highlighting challenges related to SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities). Emissions data reveals a stark contrast between developed and developing nations, as well as between different income levels.

• Developed nations, including the United States, have reduced carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 7% since 2015.
• Emissions from major developing economies have increased significantly, with China’s rising by 15.5% and India’s by 26.7%.
• Data from Oxfam International indicates that the wealthiest 0.1% of the global population increased their carbon emissions by 3% since 2015, while the poorest 10% reduced their emissions by 30%.

Impacts on Environmental and Social Goals

Escalating Climate-Related Disasters

The failure to adequately address SDG 13 has resulted in severe consequences for other SDGs, particularly those related to sustainable communities, poverty, and life on land and water.

• SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities): The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have increased. The past decade saw a record number of Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes and 193 separate billion-dollar weather disasters in the United States alone, totaling $1.5 trillion in damages.
• SDG 15 (Life on Land): Devastating wildfires in Hawaii, California, Europe, and Australia, alongside major floods in Pakistan and China, have destroyed ecosystems and communities.
• SDG 14 (Life Below Water): Sea level rise is accelerating, having increased by 40 millimeters in the last decade.
• SDG 15 (Life on Land): Critical ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest are transitioning from carbon sinks to carbon sources due to deforestation, further exacerbating climate change.

Advances in Sustainable Development Goal 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy)

Growth in Renewable Energy and Electric Mobility

Significant progress has been made in the transition towards clean energy, a core target of SDG 7. This represents the most positive development in the global climate response.

• Renewable energy sources like wind and solar are now more cost-effective than fossil fuels in most regions.
• In the last year, 74% of the growth in global electricity generation came from renewable sources.
• The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has grown exponentially, from 500,000 global sales in 2015 to 17 million last year.

Insufficient Pace of Transition

Despite these positive trends, the pace of the energy transition is insufficient to meet climate targets. A comprehensive report by the Bezos Earth Fund and other institutions found that while 35 key indicators of progress are moving in the right direction, none are on track to achieve the 1.5°C goal.

Conclusion and Forward Outlook

The period since the Paris Agreement is characterized by a dual reality. On one hand, global partnerships (SDG 17) have successfully bent the warming curve away from the worst-case scenarios of nearly 4°C. On the other hand, the agreement has underperformed, and the world has failed to curb emissions and warming at the required pace. The gap between the progress made and the action needed continues to widen. The upcoming climate negotiations in Belem are a critical opportunity to strengthen global cooperation and accelerate action across all climate-related SDGs to prevent further irreversible damage.

1. SDGs Addressed in the Article

1. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Explanation: The entire article is centered on climate action, discussing the failures and progress since the 2015 Paris Agreement. It highlights the urgency of addressing global warming, reducing emissions, and adapting to the impacts of climate change, which are the core tenets of SDG 13. The text explicitly mentions “global warming,” “emissions,” “climate goals,” and “climate action.”

2. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

   • Explanation: The article points to progress in the transition to clean energy as a key part of the climate solution. It states, “Renewable energy growth and electric vehicle adoption show progress” and notes that “Renewable energy is now cheaper in most places than polluting coal, oil and natural gas.” This directly relates to increasing the share of renewable energy in the global mix.

3. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

   • Explanation: The article details the devastating impact of climate-related disasters on communities. It mentions “deadly heat waves,” “wildfires,” and “floods” that have affected various regions. The economic toll is quantified with the statement, “America has been hit by 193 disasters that cost at least $1 billion in the past 10 years for a total bill of $1.5 trillion,” which connects to the goal of making human settlements resilient.

4. SDG 15: Life on Land

   • Explanation: The article discusses the severe impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. It notes the loss of “more than 7 trillion tons of ice in the world’s glaciers” and highlights the degradation of the Amazon rainforest, which has shifted “from a planet-saving region that sucks heat-trapping gases out of the air to a region that, because of deforestation, at times is spewing them.”

5. SDG 14: Life Below Water

   • Explanation: The impact on marine ecosystems is addressed through the mention of accelerating sea-level rise. The article states, “Sea level rise is accelerating. In the past decade, the world’s seas have gone up 40 millimeters (1.6 inches),” a direct consequence of melting ice sheets and warming oceans.

6. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

   • Explanation: The article touches upon the disparity in responsibility for climate change. It cites an Oxfam International report finding that “the richest 0.1% of people increased their carbon emissions by 3% since 2015. Meanwhile, the poorest 10% of people reduced their emissions by 30%,” highlighting the unequal contribution to the problem based on income levels.

7. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

   • Explanation: The framework of the article is the global partnership for climate action. It revolves around the “2015 Paris Agreement” and the gathering of “diplomats… in Belem, Brazil, for annual United Nations climate negotiations.” This exemplifies the international cooperation and multi-stakeholder partnerships necessary to achieve the SDGs.

2. Specific Targets Identified

1. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.

   • Evidence: The article’s detailed description of increased “deadly heat waves,” “costly, dangerous and extreme weather,” “wildfires,” and “floods” underscores the failure to sufficiently strengthen resilience against these growing hazards.

2. Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.

   • Evidence: The Paris Agreement, a central theme of the article, directly embodies this target by requiring “countries to come up with plans to fight warming.” The article assesses the performance of these integrated plans since 2015.

3. Target 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.

   • Evidence: The article explicitly tracks progress on this target, stating, “Last year, 74% of the growth in electricity generated worldwide was from wind, solar and other green choices.” It also notes that “Renewable energy growth… show[s] progress, but too slowly.”

4. Target 11.5: By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct economic losses… caused by disasters.

   • Evidence: The article implies a failure to meet this target by highlighting the opposite trend: “The decade since 2015 has seen… the most billion-dollar weather disasters in the United States,” with a total cost of “$1.5 trillion.”

5. Target 15.2: Promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation…

   • Evidence: The article points to a setback in this target concerning the Amazon, which is now “at times… spewing” greenhouse gases “because of deforestation.”

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied

1. Indicator for SDG 13: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Concentrations

   • Evidence: The article provides specific data points that serve as indicators of progress (or lack thereof). It mentions that “Methane levels in the atmosphere increased 5.2% from 2015 to 2024, while carbon dioxide levels jumped 5.8%.” It also tracks national emissions, noting China’s increased by 15.5% and India’s by 26.7%.

2. Indicator for SDG 13: Global Temperature Change

   • Evidence: The article uses global temperature as a primary indicator of climate change’s acceleration, stating, “The planet’s annual temperature jumped about 0.46 degrees Celsius (0.83 degrees Fahrenheit) since 2015.”

3. Indicator for SDG 7: Share of Renewable Energy

   • Evidence: The article provides a clear indicator for renewable energy adoption: “Last year, 74% of the growth in electricity generated worldwide was from wind, solar and other green choices.” The growth in electric vehicle sales from “a half-million” to “17 million” also serves as an indicator for the clean energy transition in transport.

4. Indicator for SDGs 11 & 13: Economic Losses from Climate-Related Disasters

   • Evidence: The financial impact of disasters is used as a metric of climate change’s severity. The article quantifies this with “193 disasters that cost at least $1 billion in the past 10 years for a total bill of $1.5 trillion.”

5. Indicator for SDGs 14 & 15: Cryosphere and Sea Level Measurements

   • Evidence: The article uses the measurement of ice loss (“more than 7 trillion tons of ice… have disappeared”) and sea-level rise (“the world’s seas have gone up 40 millimeters (1.6 inches)”) as direct indicators of the physical impacts of global warming on the planet’s systems.

6. Indicator for SDG 10: Carbon Emissions by Income Level

   • Evidence: The Oxfam report findings are presented as an indicator of inequality, comparing the percentage change in carbon emissions between “the richest 0.1% of people” (+3%) and “the poorest 10% of people” (-30%).

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: finance-commerce.com