Tehran’s Crisis is Iran’s Reckoning – Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Report on Tehran’s Environmental Crises and Failure to Meet Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

The city of Tehran is experiencing a multifaceted environmental collapse, characterized by severe water scarcity, land subsidence, energy shortages, and extreme air pollution. These crises are not natural disasters but the direct outcome of systemic mismanagement, political negligence, and institutional corruption. This situation represents a critical failure to meet numerous Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including those related to clean water (SDG 6), sustainable cities (SDG 11), climate action (SDG 13), and strong institutions (SDG 16). The proposal to relocate the capital is considered unviable, highlighting the depth of the governance crisis.

Critical Failures in Water and Sanitation Management (SDG 6)

Tehran’s water crisis is a direct contravention of SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation). Decades of unregulated water extraction and poor resource management have led to a critical depletion of water resources.

• Dams supplying the city are at only 14% of their capacity.
• Lar Dam, a crucial water source, holds barely 1% of its capacity.
• Rainfall has been approximately 40% below long-term averages.
• Over-pumping of aquifers to compensate for the deficit has led to severe secondary environmental impacts.

Nationally, the situation is also dire, with all 31 provinces facing water scarcity and major dam reserves at 46% capacity, undermining water security for the entire population.

Infrastructure and Urban Sustainability Crisis (SDG 9 & SDG 11)

The over-extraction of groundwater has caused catastrophic land subsidence, severely compromising the city’s viability and directly undermining SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).

1. The ground beneath Tehran is sinking by up to 25 centimeters annually.
2. This subsidence has caused widespread damage to critical infrastructure, including roads, pipelines, and building foundations.
3. Sinkholes have appeared in residential areas, forcing evacuations.
4. Transportation infrastructure, including rail lines, the Tehran Metro, and airport runways, has been warped and damaged.

Compounded Energy and Climate Challenges (SDG 7 & SDG 13)

The water crisis has precipitated an energy crisis, demonstrating a failure to ensure SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy). The electrical grid is unstable, leading to simultaneous water and energy rationing.

• Reduced water levels have diminished hydropower capacity, a key component of the energy mix.
• Efforts to promote renewable energy, such as solar, have been ineffective due to a lack of state investment.
• These shortages reflect a failure of governance rather than a lack of resources, impeding progress on SDG 13 (Climate Action) by failing to build a resilient and sustainable energy system.

Public Health and Environmental Quality Decline (SDG 3)

Air pollution in Tehran has reached hazardous levels, creating a public health emergency that violates the principles of SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being).

• Traffic, with over 42 million daily vehicle trips, generates 83% of the city’s air pollution.
• Pollution levels are approximately nine times higher than World Health Organization guidelines.
• In 2024, air pollution was linked to over 6,000 deaths.
• The city experienced only seven days of clean air in 2024, with smog contributing to widespread respiratory illness.

Socio-Economic Disparities and Institutional Failures (SDG 8, SDG 10, SDG 16)

The root of Tehran’s environmental crises lies in institutional failure, which prevents progress on SDG 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions). Unregulated projects by entities like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Khatam al-Anbiya conglomerate have prioritized profit over environmental sustainability. This has exacerbated inequalities, hindering SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) and preventing the achievement of SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) on a national scale.

Tehran’s economic dominance concentrates resources and opportunities, further driving unsustainable growth:

• The metropolitan area hosts 15% of Iran’s population and generates over 20% of its GDP.
• The city accounts for nearly half of the nation’s tax revenue and 45% of its large industrial firms.

National Implications and Internal Displacement (SDG 15)

Environmental degradation across Iran, a failure to protect SDG 15 (Life on Land), is fueling mass internal migration to an already overburdened Tehran. Ecological disasters, such as the drying of Lake Urmia and the Zayandeh Rud River, have destroyed agricultural livelihoods and displaced millions.

1. Tehran province absorbs 20% of all internal migrants.
2. Migration accounts for 88% of the city’s population growth.
3. An estimated 200,000 people move to Tehran annually, expanding slums and straining public services.

This migration is no longer one of opportunity but of survival, concentrating national discontent in the capital.

Assessment of Proposed Capital Relocation

The proposal to relocate the capital to the Makran region is not a viable solution. The proposed area faces its own significant environmental challenges, including rising sea levels and water scarcity. Furthermore, the institutional incompetence and corruption that caused Tehran’s collapse would not be resolved by relocation, making the project an impossibility. Such a move fails to address the core governance issues central to SDG 16.

Conclusion

Tehran’s environmental collapse is a symptom of a national crisis rooted in decades of unsustainable development, resource mismanagement, and failed governance. The city’s condition reflects a comprehensive failure to advance the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly those concerning water, energy, health, infrastructure, and institutional integrity. The situation serves as a stark warning of the consequences of deferring environmental and political reckoning.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

1. SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

   The article directly connects Tehran’s environmental crises to public health. It highlights the severe health impacts of air pollution, a major issue in the city.

   • Evidence from the article: It states that in 2024, air pollution was “linked to more than 6,000 deaths” and that “smog trapped by the surrounding mountains keeps respiratory illness… as permanent features of urban life.”

2. SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

   This is a central theme of the article. It details a severe water crisis in Tehran and across Iran, resulting from mismanagement, climate factors, and over-extraction.

   • Evidence from the article: The text points to dams holding “only 14 percent of their capacity,” the over-pumping of aquifers, nationwide rainfall being “down about 45 percent,” and the fact that all 31 provinces face “some degree of water scarcity.”

3. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

   The article describes how water scarcity has led to an energy crisis, affecting the reliability of the power supply.

   • Evidence from the article: It mentions that while hydropower is a small share of the energy mix, any cut is significant, leading to a “dual water-energy shortfall: blackouts and rationing that strike the capital simultaneously.”

4. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

   The article discusses the severe impact of environmental degradation on the city’s infrastructure, highlighting its lack of resilience.

   • Evidence from the article: Land subsidence has caused the “cracking roads, pipelines, and building foundations” and has “warped rail lines and sections of the Tehran Metro, and even runways at the city’s airports.”

5. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

   The entire article is a case study of an unsustainable city. It covers multiple facets of urban unsustainability, from pollution and infrastructure failure to social inequity and poor governance.

   • Evidence from the article: Key issues mentioned include extreme traffic congestion (“4 million cars and 1 million motorcycles”), severe air pollution, the expansion of “slums on the city’s outskirts,” and strained public services due to mass internal migration.

6. SDG 13: Climate Action

   The article implicitly and explicitly links the crises to climate change, citing reduced rainfall and rising temperatures as contributing factors to the water scarcity and desertification driving migration.

   • Evidence from the article: It notes that rainfall has been “roughly 40 percent below long-term averages” and warns that “unchecked climate decline could eventually displace up to 50 million people.”

7. SDG 15: Life on Land

   The article details widespread land degradation and the destruction of freshwater ecosystems due to unsustainable water management.

   • Evidence from the article: It describes the ground sinking by “up to 25 centimeters per year” (land subsidence), the “drying of Lake Urmia,” the “near-disappearance of the Zayandeh Rud River,” and the creation of “salt storms” and “dust storms” from dried basins.

8. SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions

   A core argument of the article is that the environmental collapse is a direct result of failed governance, corruption, and weak institutions.

   • Evidence from the article: The problems are attributed to “the incompetence and corruption of the regime,” “institutional rot,” “political negligence,” and projects driven by “patronage networks” without proper environmental assessments.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Under SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being)

   • Target 3.9: By 2030, substantially reduce the number of deaths and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water and soil pollution and contamination. The article’s mention of over 6,000 deaths linked to air pollution directly relates to this target.

2. Under SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation)

   • Target 6.4: By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity. The article describes the opposite: unsustainable “over-pumping of aquifers” and severe water shortages.
   • Target 6.5: By 2030, implement integrated water resources management at all levels. The article highlights a complete failure of this, citing “unregulated dams, diversion canals,” and projects without “hydrological or environmental assessments.”

3. Under SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure)

   • Target 9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure. The description of cracking roads, pipelines, and warped rail lines due to land subsidence shows that Tehran’s infrastructure is not resilient.

4. Under SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities)

   • Target 11.1: By 2030, ensure access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services and upgrade slums. The article points to the “expanded slums on the city’s outskirts” as a result of migration, indicating a failure to provide adequate housing.
   • Target 11.6: By 2030, reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities, including by paying special attention to air quality. Tehran’s air pollution, which is “roughly nine times the World Health Organization’s guidelines,” is a direct contradiction of this target.

5. Under SDG 15 (Life on Land)

   • Target 15.3: By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil… and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world. The article’s focus on land subsidence, drying lakes and rivers, and resulting dust storms points to severe land degradation and desertification.

6. Under SDG 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions)

   • Target 16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels. The article’s central thesis is that the crises stem from a lack of such institutions, citing “institutional rot,” “corruption,” and “political negligence.”

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. For SDG 3, Target 3.9

   • Indicator 3.9.1 (Mortality rate attributed to air pollution): The article provides a specific figure: “air pollution was linked to more than 6,000 deaths” in 2024.

2. For SDG 6, Target 6.4

   • Indicator 6.4.2 (Level of water stress): The article provides several data points that act as proxies for this indicator: dams are at “14 percent” of capacity, rainfall is “40 percent below long-term averages,” and aquifers are being over-pumped.

3. For SDG 11, Target 11.6

   • Indicator 11.6.2 (Annual mean levels of fine particulate matter in cities): Progress can be measured against the baseline provided: air pollution is “roughly nine times the World Health Organization’s guidelines,” and the city saw “only seven clean-air days” in 2024.

4. For SDG 15, Target 15.3

   • Indicator 15.3.1 (Proportion of land that is degraded over total land area): The article gives a specific rate of degradation: “the ground beneath the city to sink by up to 25 centimeters per year.” This quantifies the rate of land subsidence.

5. For SDG 11, Target 11.1

   • Implied Indicator (Rate of internal migration and slum growth): The article provides figures that can be used as indicators of urban strain: “200,000 people move to Tehran each year,” and “88 percent of Tehran’s population growth now comes from migration.”

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: realclearworld.com