The growing clean energy backlog, in five charts

Tracking the Grid Backlog: A Report on the Threat to the U.S. Clean Energy Transition

For the past four years, researchers at the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) have been monitoring a significant challenge to the U.S. clean energy transition: the backups and bottlenecks in connecting proposed solar, wind, and battery projects to the electricity grid.

The Grid Backlog and its Implications

LBNL’s team recently presented their latest findings in a webinar, highlighting the urgent need to address the grid backlog. According to their research, clean power plants have the potential to supply enough electricity in the near term to avoid the construction of new fossil-gas-fired power plants or the extension of coal plant operations. However, this can only be achieved if action is taken to resolve the grid backlog.

Utility companies and grid reliability entities in the U.S. are warning that the growing demand for electricity from data centers, factories, electric vehicles, and decarbonizing buildings is expected to outpace the rate at which new clean energy resources can be integrated into the grid. As a result, some utilities are proposing to keep coal plants open beyond their planned retirement dates and build new fossil-gas-fired power plants, jeopardizing the country’s carbon-cutting goals.

Simultaneously, there is a significant number of proposed carbon-free projects waiting to replace existing fossil-fueled generators. As of December 2023, nearly 2,600 gigawatts’ worth of proposed projects, primarily wind, solar, and battery storage, were in various stages of study and approval processes to connect to the power grid. This amount is approximately twice the capacity of the entire existing U.S. electrical grid.

The main challenge lies in the fact that grid operators and utilities are unable to accommodate all these projects on their current power lines, and they are overwhelmed by the paperwork required to expand the grid to accommodate them.

The Growing Backlog and Slow Grid Expansion

The interconnection backlog at the end of 2023 was approximately eight times the capacity that was active in the queues as of the end of 2014. However, the pace of transmission grid expansion has slowed to about 1% per year over the same period.

Despite these challenges, the potential capacity of clean power and batteries waiting to be built could meet the forecasted growth in electricity demand. The following charts from LBNL’s latest report illustrate this potential:

Meeting peak demand without emissions

1. The left chart demonstrates the amount of solar, wind, battery, and hybrid capacity waiting to come online. The right chart shows how these clean resources can contribute to meeting electricity needs, including peak demand during summer and winter.
2. The gray bars on the right chart represent the total amount of generation capacity seeking interconnection in each region, which is typically higher than the existing generation capacity marked by the black lines.
3. Considering that wind and solar may not generate their full capacity during peak demand periods, LBNL’s chart also compares regional peak loads (represented by yellow lines) to estimate grid reliability.
4. LBNL conducted a rough calculation to estimate the approximate peak load contribution of all active capacity in the queues (represented by red lines). These red lines exceed peak load in all regions and even exceed installed capacity in several regions.

However, it is important to note that not all projects in the queues will be built. Only 14% of the generation capacity of projects submitted for interconnection from 2000 to 2018 had been completed and brought online by the end of 2023. This completion rate serves as a warning for utilities and grid operators relying on yet-to-be-built projects to meet peak load needs.

Projected Clean Energy Capacity in the Near Term

To assess the potential clean energy and battery capacity that could be available to meet grid needs in the near future, LBNL’s report analyzed the timing and status of projects. Nearly half of the projects currently in interconnection queues have proposed to come online by the end of 2026, totaling nearly 1,300 gigawatts of capacity.

The most promising projects are those that have already executed interconnection agreements, allowing them to begin construction and cover the costs of necessary grid upgrades. Approximately 12% of the active projects studied by LBNL have reached this stage, amounting to 311 gigawatts of capacity. These projects are considered more likely to reach commercial operations in the relatively near term.

The Grid Value of Near-Term Projects

LBNL conducted an analysis to determine the grid value of projects that have successfully navigated the interconnection process. They compared the peak load contributions of these projects with the five-year forecast of peak load growth and power plant retirements for six grid operators in the U.S.

The results indicate significant potential for these projects, which are close to completion, to meet a substantial portion of the capacity needs resulting from peak load growth and power plant retirements in various regions. The Midwestern and mid-Atlantic regions served by grid operators Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), PJM, and Southwest Power Pool (SPP) stand to benefit the most. In California, New England, and Texas, these projects may even exceed the capacity needs.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
• SDG 13: Climate Action

The article discusses the challenges and opportunities related to the clean energy transition, grid reliability, and meeting electricity demand while reducing emissions. These issues are directly connected to SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and SDG 13 (Climate Action).

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

• SDG 7.2: Increase the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix
• SDG 9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable, and resilient infrastructure
• SDG 11.4: Strengthen efforts to protect and safeguard the world’s cultural and natural heritage
• SDG 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning

The article highlights the need to increase the share of renewable energy in the electricity grid to achieve SDG 7.2. It also emphasizes the importance of developing reliable and sustainable infrastructure to meet growing electricity demand, aligning with SDG 9.1. Additionally, the article mentions the potential impact of clean energy projects on reducing carbon emissions, contributing to SDG 13.2. Lastly, the focus on grid expansion and meeting peak load needs relates to the goal of ensuring sustainable cities and communities (SDG 11.4).

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Percentage of renewable energy in the electricity grid
• Rate of transmission grid expansion
• Completion rate of clean energy projects in interconnection queues
• Capacity of clean energy projects ready to meet grid needs by a specific year

The article implies indicators that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets. These indicators include the percentage of renewable energy in the electricity grid, the rate of transmission grid expansion, the completion rate of clean energy projects in interconnection queues, and the capacity of clean energy projects ready to meet grid needs by a specific year.

Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

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Fuente: canarymedia.com

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