Executive Summary: Economic and Sustainable Development Implications of Declining International Student Enrollment in the U.S.

A new analysis indicates that the United States is projected to suffer a significant economic loss of up to $7 billion due to a precipitous decline in international student enrollment. This downturn not only threatens local economic stability but also poses a considerable challenge to the achievement of key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 4 (Quality Education). The report, conducted by NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International, links the decline to recent U.S. administrative actions, which have created barriers that undermine SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions).

Analysis of Economic and Social Impact

Economic Ramifications and SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

The projected decline in international students is expected to have a direct and negative impact on the U.S. economy, hindering progress toward SDG 8. Key findings include:

• Economic Activity Loss: A potential loss of $7 billion in contributions to local economies from tuition, accommodation, and other spending.
• Job Losses: The economic shortfall is estimated to result in the loss of over 60,000 jobs in communities across the country, directly contradicting the goal of promoting full and productive employment.
• University Revenue: A 10% drop in international student enrollment alone could cost U.S. colleges and universities $3 billion in revenue, with approximately $900 million from lost tuition. This financial instability affects the institutions’ capacity as economic engines in their regions.

Impact on Higher Education and SDG 4: Quality Education

The reduction in international students directly threatens the quality and inclusivity of the U.S. higher education system, a cornerstone of SDG 4. The presence of international students is critical for fostering diverse, cross-cultural learning environments. Projections indicate:

• An overall decline of 15% in the international student population for the fall 2025 semester, with new student enrollment falling by 30-40%.
• A NAFSA survey revealed that 78% of member institutions anticipate declines in both undergraduate and graduate international student enrollment.
• The Institute of International Education found that 40% of institutions expect fewer international undergraduates, and 49% expect a drop in graduate students. This trend compromises the global nature of U.S. campuses and the quality of the educational experience for all students.

Causal Factors and Their Relation to Global Goals

Policy and Institutional Barriers Impeding SDG 10 and SDG 16

The report identifies four primary drivers behind the decline, which function as institutional barriers that promote inequality and undermine stable governance, running counter to SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions).

1. Visa Interview Suspension: A global pause on visa interviews by the State Department, followed by the imposition of new vetting protocols with minimal guidance, created significant uncertainty and obstacles for prospective students.
2. Limited Consular Appointments: Students in key sending countries, including China, India, and Nigeria, reported severe difficulties in securing visa appointments, creating unequal access to U.S. education based on nationality. This directly challenges the objective of SDG 10.
3. Downward Visa Trends: The issuance of F-1 student visas was down 22% in May 2025 compared to the previous year, with projections of an 80-90% drop for June, indicating a systemic and institutional failure to facilitate educational exchange.
4. Visa Bans: An executive order restricting entry from 19 countries, with more potentially being added, establishes discriminatory barriers. This policy alone is estimated to cost the U.S. $3 billion and 25,000 jobs, highlighting how inequitable policies (SDG 10) can weaken institutions and economic stability (SDG 16 and SDG 8).

Broader Implications for Global Partnerships and Sustainable Development

Weakening International Cooperation (SDG 17)

The decline in international student mobility represents a significant setback for SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals), which relies on international cooperation and knowledge sharing.

• International education serves as a primary vehicle for building global partnerships. Hindering student mobility weakens these vital cross-border relationships.
• Media reports of a potential 70% decline in students from India and data showing a shift in student interest toward the U.K. and Australia indicate a fracturing of established educational partnerships.
• The failure to maintain an open and welcoming environment for international students undermines the U.S.’s role as a global partner in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.

SDGs Addressed in the Article

1. SDG 4: Quality Education

   The article’s central theme is the decline in international student enrollment in U.S. universities. This directly relates to SDG 4, which aims to ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all, including access to tertiary education.

2. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   The article extensively discusses the economic fallout from the drop in international students, highlighting a potential “$7 billion in local economic activity” loss and “more than 60,000 U.S. job losses.” This connects directly to SDG 8, which focuses on promoting sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth and decent work.

3. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

   The article points out that the decline is driven by policies like “visa bans” for specific countries and difficulties in securing visa appointments for students from nations like India, China, and Nigeria. This addresses SDG 10, which aims to reduce inequality within and among countries, particularly concerning the mobility of people.

4. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

   The international flow of students is a form of global partnership that fosters knowledge sharing and cultural exchange. The article describes a disruption to this flow, which undermines the principles of SDG 17, focused on strengthening the means of implementation and revitalizing the global partnership for sustainable development.

Specific SDG Targets Identified

• SDG 4: Quality Education

  • Target 4.3: By 2030, ensure equal access for all women and men to affordable and quality technical, vocational and tertiary education, including university.
    
    Explanation: The article highlights a significant barrier to accessing U.S. university education for international students due to visa policies and processing delays. The projected “15% overall decline in international students” signifies a reduction in equal access to tertiary education for this group.
  • Target 4.b: By 2020, substantially expand globally the number of scholarships available to developing countries… for enrolment in higher education… in developed countries.
    
    Explanation: While not about scholarships, the article discusses the overall decline in student mobility from developing countries (e.g., India, Nigeria) to a developed one (the U.S.). This trend runs counter to the goal of expanding higher education opportunities in developed nations for students from developing countries.

• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

  • Target 8.1: Sustain per capita economic growth in accordance with national circumstances.
    
    Explanation: The article directly links the drop in international students to negative economic consequences, stating the U.S. “could lose as much as $7 billion in local economic activity,” which is a threat to sustained economic growth.
  • Target 8.5: By 2030, achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all women and men.
    
    Explanation: The analysis explicitly warns that the student shortfall “could translate to more than 60,000 U.S. job losses,” representing a direct setback to achieving full and productive employment.

• SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

  • Target 10.7: Facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility of people, including through the implementation of planned and well-managed migration policies.
    
    Explanation: The article describes how U.S. policies, including “visa interview suspension,” “limited consular appointments,” and “visa bans,” are creating disorderly and restrictive conditions that impede the mobility of students, thereby increasing inequality of opportunity based on nationality.

• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

  • Target 17.6: Enhance North-South, South-South and triangular regional and international cooperation on and access to science, technology and innovation and enhance knowledge sharing.
    
    Explanation: The movement of international students is a primary channel for North-South knowledge sharing and cooperation. The article’s focus on the “precipitous drop in international students” indicates a weakening of this crucial partnership mechanism.

Indicators for Measuring Progress

• For Target 4.3 (Equal access to tertiary education)

  • Indicator: Total number and percentage change of international students enrolled in tertiary education.
    
    Evidence from article: The article provides multiple data points for this indicator, including a recent high of “1.12 million international students,” a potential “15% overall decline,” a “30-40% fall in new international students,” and a potential drop of “150,000 fewer international students.”

• For Target 8.1 (Sustain economic growth)

  • Indicator: Economic contribution of international students.
    
    Evidence from article: The article quantifies this with the projection that the U.S. “could lose as much as $7 billion in local economic activity.” It also mentions a potential loss of “$3 billion in revenue” for universities from a 10% drop.

• For Target 8.5 (Full and productive employment)

  • Indicator: Number of domestic jobs supported by international students.
    
    Evidence from article: The analysis directly states that the decline could lead to “more than 60,000 U.S. job losses.”

• For Target 10.7 (Orderly migration and mobility)

  • Indicator: Number of student visas issued.
    
    Evidence from article: The article explicitly mentions this indicator, noting that “F-1 student visa issues were down 22% in May 2025” and warning of a potential “80-90% drop” for June.

SDGs, Targets and Indicators Analysis

Source: forbes.com