4 factors driving 2023’s extreme heat and climate disasters | Kiowa County Press
4 factors driving 2023’s extreme heat and climate disasters Kiowa County Press
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2023’s Extreme Weather and Climate Disasters: A Report on the Factors Driving Them
Introduction
By Michael Wysession, Professor of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis
Between the record-breaking global heat and extreme downpours, it’s hard to ignore that something unusual is going on with the weather in 2023.
People have been quick to blame climate change – and they’re right, to a point: Human-caused global warming does play the biggest role. A recent study determined that the weekslong heat wave in Texas and Mexico that started in June 2023 would have been virtually impossible without it.
However, the extremes this year are sharper than anthropogenic global warming alone would be expected to cause. Human activities that release greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere have been increasing temperatures gradually, at an average of 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (0.1 Celsius) per decade.
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
- Goal 13: Climate Action
- Goal 15: Life on Land
Factors Driving Extreme Weather in 2023
How El Nino is involved
El Nino is a climate phenomenon that occurs every few years when surface water in the tropical Pacific reverses direction and heats up. That warms the atmosphere above, which influences temperatures and weather patterns around the globe.
Essentially, the atmosphere borrows heat out of the Pacific, and global temperatures increase slightly. This happened in 2016, the time of the last strong El Nino. Global temperatures increased by about 0.25 F (0.14 C) on average, making 2016 the warmest year on record. A weak El Nino also occurred in 2019-2020, contributing to 2020 becoming the world’s second-warmest year.
Solar fluctuations
The Sun may seem to shine at a constant rate, but it is a seething, churning ball of plasma whose radiating energy changes over many different time scales.
The Sun is slowly heating up and in half a billion years will boil away Earth’s oceans. On human time scales, however, the Sun’s energy output varies only slightly, about 1 part in 1,000, over a repeating 11-year cycle. The peaks of this cycle are too small for us to notice at a daily level, but they affect Earth’s climate systems.
Rapid convection within our Sun both generates a strong magnetic field aligned with its spin axis and causes this field to fully flip and reverse every 11 years. This is what causes the 11-year cycle in emitted solar radiation.
A massive volcanic eruption
Volcanic eruptions can also significantly affect global climates. They usually do this by lowering global temperatures when erupted sulfate aerosols shield and block a portion of incoming sunlight – but not always.
In an unusual twist, the largest volcanic eruption of the 21st century so far, the 2022 eruption of Tonga’s Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai is having a warming and not cooling effect.
Impact of These Factors on Global Warming
All of this comes on top of anthropogenic, or human-caused, global warming.
Humans have raised global average temperatures by about 2 F (1.1 C) since 1900 by releasing large volumes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. For example, humans have increased the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by 50%, primarily through combustion of fossil fuels in vehicles and power plants. The warming from greenhouse gases is actually greater than 2 F (1.1 C), but it has been masked by other human factors that have a cooling effect, such as air pollution.
Future Implications
The next couple of years could be very rough.
If a strong El Nino develops over the next year, combined with the solar maximum and the effects of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption, Earth’s temperatures would likely soar to uncharted highs. According to climate modeling, this would likely mean even more heat waves, forest fires, flash floods, and other extreme weather events.
Both weather and climate forecasts have become very reliable in recent years, benefiting from vast amounts of data from Earth-orbiting satellites and enormous supercomputing power for forecasting the flow and interactions of heat and water among the complex components of the ocean, land, and atmosphere.
Unfortunately, climate modeling shows that as temperatures continue to increase, weather events get more extreme.
There is now a greater than 50% chance that Earth’s global temperature will reach 2.7 F (1.5 C) by the year 2028, at least temporarily, increasing the risk of triggering climate tipping points with even greater human impacts. Because of the unfortunate timing of several parts of the climate system, it seems that the odds are not in our favor.
SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
SDGs addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article:
- SDG 13: Climate Action
The article primarily focuses on the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events, highlighting the role of human-induced global warming, El Nino, solar fluctuations, and volcanic eruptions. These issues are directly related to SDG 13, which aims to take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.
Specific targets under SDG 13 based on the article’s content:
- Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters
- Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning
- Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning
- Target 13.a: Implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion annually by 2020 from all sources to address the needs of developing countries in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation and fully operationalize the Green Climate Fund through its capitalization as soon as possible
- Target 13.b: Promote mechanisms for raising capacity for effective climate change-related planning and management in least developed countries and small island developing states, including focusing on women, youth, and local and marginalized communities
The article highlights the need to strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters (Target 13.1). It also emphasizes the importance of integrating climate change measures into national policies and strategies (Target 13.2) and improving education and awareness on climate change (Target 13.3). Additionally, the article indirectly touches upon the need for financial support to address climate change impacts in developing countries (Target 13.a) and the importance of capacity building in vulnerable regions (Target 13.b).
Indicators mentioned or implied in the article:
- Indicator 13.1.1: Number of deaths, missing persons, and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
- Indicator 13.2.1: Number of countries that have communicated the establishment or operationalization of an integrated policy/strategy/plan which increases their ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change, and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development in a manner that does not threaten food production
- Indicator 13.3.1: Number of countries that have integrated mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning into primary, secondary, and tertiary curricula
- Indicator 13.a.1: Mobilized amount of United States dollars per year between 2020 and 2025 accountable towards the $100 billion commitment
- Indicator 13.b.1: Number of least developed countries and small island developing states that are receiving specialized support, and amount of support, including finance, technology, and capacity-building, for mechanisms for raising capacities for effective climate change-related planning and management, including focusing on women, youth, and local and marginalized communities
The article does not explicitly mention these indicators, but they can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets. These indicators assess the number of deaths and affected persons attributed to disasters (Indicator 13.1.1), the establishment of integrated policies/strategies/plans for climate resilience (Indicator 13.2.1), the integration of climate change education into curricula (Indicator 13.3.1), the mobilization of financial resources (Indicator 13.a.1), and the support provided to vulnerable countries (Indicator 13.b.1).
Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
| SDGs | Targets | Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| SDG 13: Climate Action | Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters | Indicator 13.1.1: Number of deaths, missing persons, and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population |
| SDG 13: Climate Action | Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning | Indicator 13.2.1: Number of countries that have communicated the establishment or operationalization of an integrated policy/strategy/plan which increases their ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change, and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development in a manner that does not threaten food production |
| Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning | Indicator 13.3.1: Number of countries that have integrated mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning into primary, secondary, and tertiary curricula | |
| Target 13.a: Implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion annually by 2020 from all sources to address the needs of developing countries in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation and fully operationalize the Green Climate Fund through its capitalization as soon as possible | Indicator 13.a.1: Mobilized amount of United States dollars per year between 2020 and 2025 accountable towards the $100 billion commitment | |
| SDG 13: Climate Action | Target 13.b: Promote mechanisms for raising capacity for effective climate change-related planning and management in least developed countries and small island developing states, including focusing on women, youth, and local and marginalized communities | Indicator 13.b.1: Number of least developed countries and small island developing states that are receiving specialized support, and amount of support, including finance, technology, and capacity-building, for mechanisms for raising capacities for effective climate change-related planning and management, including focusing on women, youth, and local and marginalized communities |
Behold! This splendid article springs forth from the wellspring of knowledge, shaped by a wondrous proprietary AI technology that delved into a vast ocean of data, illuminating the path towards the Sustainable Development Goals. Remember that all rights are reserved by SDG Investors LLC, empowering us to champion progress together.
Source: kiowacountypress.net
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