Are Younger Generations Committing Less Crime?

Motivated by Recent Findings: Examining the Decline in Criminal Offending Among Younger Generations in California

Introduction

Motivated by recent findings that juveniles and young adults are the driving factor behind much of the drop in arrests over the last decades in California (Lofstrom et al. 2018), this report examines whether criminal offending among younger generations has declined compared to previous generations. The analysis focuses on violent offenses and explores the age-crime relationship, as well as the influence of social and economic conditions and generational effects. The study utilizes data on all arrests in California between 1980 and 2020 from the California Department of Justice’s Automated Criminal History System.

Key Findings

1. The violent felony arrest rate for young adults (ages 18–22) in California has dropped by over 50 percent in the last 25 years.
2. Adults in their late 30s and older have experienced an increase in the violent felony arrest rate over the same period.
3. Young adults now account for 16 percent of violent felonies among adults, compared to the previous 25 percent.
4. Criminal offending has significantly decreased for individuals born in the mid-1990s compared to earlier generations.
5. The frequency of offending has increased by approximately 5 percent over the last decade across all age groups and generations.

Implications and Policy Recommendations

• The decline in criminal behavior among more recent generations suggests the possibility of lower future capacity needs in the criminal justice system.
• Law enforcement, criminal courts, and correctional facilities may need to handle fewer cases and accommodate a smaller population.
• Alternative approaches to reduce crime among a potentially more challenging-to-rehabilitate offender population may be necessary.
• County probation departments should offer effective rehabilitation programs and closely monitor the transition after the closure of state facilities.
• Age-based risk assessments and prediction instruments should be adjusted to account for the decline in offending rates among more recent generations.

Conclusion

The decline in criminal offending among younger generations in California, particularly in violent offenses, has significant policy implications. The findings suggest the need for ongoing research to determine the specific factors contributing to these generational shifts and to assess the persistence of these changes. Additionally, the impact of these findings on public safety, rehabilitation programs, and risk assessments should be carefully monitored and addressed. By aligning policies and practices with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions, California can continue its progress towards a safer and more equitable society.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Analysis

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions
• SDG 4: Quality Education

The article discusses criminal offending rates among younger generations and the potential implications for the criminal justice system. This is connected to SDG 16, which aims to promote peaceful and inclusive societies, provide access to justice for all, and build effective, accountable, and inclusive institutions at all levels. The article also mentions changes in teen behavior, including increased school enrollment rates and greater educational attainment, which are relevant to SDG 4, which focuses on ensuring inclusive and equitable quality education for all.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

• Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere
• Target 4.1: By 2030, ensure that all girls and boys complete free, equitable, and quality primary and secondary education leading to relevant and effective learning outcomes

The article addresses the decline in criminal offending rates among younger generations, which aligns with Target 16.1 of reducing violence and related death rates. Additionally, the mention of increased school enrollment rates and greater educational attainment among adolescents relates to Target 4.1 of ensuring access to quality education.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Indicator for Target 16.1: Violent felony arrest rate among younger generations
• Indicator for Target 4.1: School enrollment rates and educational attainment among adolescents

The article mentions the violent felony arrest rate among younger generations as an indicator of progress towards reducing violence, which can be used to measure progress towards Target 16.1. Additionally, the article discusses increased school enrollment rates and greater educational attainment among adolescents, which can serve as indicators of progress towards Target 4.1.

4. Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

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Source: ppic.org

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