Atlantic Ocean current could collapse as early as 2025

A System of Ocean Currents Could Collapse, Putting Sustainable Development Goals at Risk

A system of ocean currents could collapse anytime from 2025 onwards as climate change worsens, scientists have found.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a large system of ocean currents that circulates water in the Atlantic, flowing warm water north and cold water south. The AMOC is crucial in keeping the world’s oceans balanced. The circulation brings warmth to colder areas, and circulates nutrients that are integral to ocean life.

Potential Collapse of the AMOC

Research has already suggested that the currents are slowing due to changes in the world’s climate. However, whether it will completely halt has remained uncertain.

New research published in Nature Communications, from University of Copenhagen scientists, found that there is a possibility the system could completely collapse at the middle of our century.

“It was a surprise that it was found to be this early—at odds with what IPCC CMIP6 climate models predict,” Peter Ditlevsen, one of the authors of the study, told Newsweek. “This is also why we developed rather advanced statistical tools to confirm the finding and to supplement with rigorous confidence bands.”

Potential Impacts and Concerns

Recent studies of the currents by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the U.N. body that assesses climate change-related science, suggest that a collapse would be unlikely in this century.

But this new research by Ditlevsen and co-author Susanne Ditlevsen suggests differently.

In their research, they analyzed North Atlantic sea surface temperatures from 1870 to 2020.

By using advanced statistical tools, the researchers found signs that the AMOC may not be far from a transition that would see it shut down.

They predicted this could happen from 2025, and no later than 2095.

If these findings are correct, it is hugely concerning. The collapse of the AMOC would trigger multiple climate tipping points, many of which could be irreversible.

“This current exists in the Atlantic, warming Western Europe, while it is absent in the Pacific, thus Alaska is a much colder place than Scandinavia at similar latitudes,” Peter Ditlevsen said.

Potential Consequences

At the moment, the current circulates warm waters from the Gulf Stream to Europe. If it collapsed, this would also stop, and plunge parts of the continent into an intense freeze.

The AMOC is also integral in maintaining sea levels, which are already rapidly increasing due to climate change. This is because the flow of warm water to the north helps offset the increase in temperatures, which exacerbate changing sea levels.

This means its collapse would also cause a rapid sea level rise, including on the East Coast of the U.S.

A dramatic climate change like this was last seen during the Dansgaard-Oeschger events, which scientists predict happened around 25 times during the last 120,000 years.

These events saw the collapse of the AMOC which changed temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere by around 10 to 15

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

1. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters
   • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning

   The issues highlighted in the article are directly connected to SDG 13, which focuses on taking urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.

   The specific targets under SDG 13 that can be identified based on the article’s content include strengthening resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters (Target 13.1), improving education and awareness on climate change (Target 13.3), and integrating climate change measures into national policies and planning (Target 13.2).

   The article discusses the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to climate change, which would have significant impacts on the world’s oceans and climate. This aligns with the targets under SDG 13 as it highlights the need to address climate-related hazards, increase awareness and education on climate change, and integrate climate change measures into policies and planning.

2. SDG 14: Life Below Water

   • Target 14.2: Sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems
   • Target 14.7: Increase the economic benefits to small island developing states and least developed countries from the sustainable use of marine resources

   The issues discussed in the article are also connected to SDG 14, which focuses on conserving and sustainably using the oceans, seas, and marine resources for sustainable development.

   The specific targets under SDG 14 that can be identified based on the article’s content include sustainably managing and protecting marine and coastal ecosystems (Target 14.2) and increasing economic benefits from the sustainable use of marine resources (Target 14.7).

   The potential collapse of the AMOC would have significant impacts on marine ecosystems and the balance of ocean life. It would disrupt the circulation of nutrients and affect the temperature and productivity of different regions. This aligns with the targets under SDG 14 as it highlights the need to protect marine ecosystems and ensure the sustainable use of marine resources.

Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

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Source: newsweek.com

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