Battery EVs Might Not Be The Future Of Transport In China After All

China’s Shift Towards Plug-in Hybrids Raises Questions About the Future of Battery Electric Vehicles

Introduction

In the first half of April 2024, over 50% of cars sold in China were “new energy vehicles,” marking a significant milestone in the country’s efforts to reduce emissions and promote sustainable transportation. However, a closer look reveals that this achievement is primarily due to the increased sales of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) rather than battery electric vehicles (BEVs). This shift raises concerns about whether China’s BEV market is transitioning to PHEVs, potentially giving a new lease of life to internal combustion engines (ICE).

The Market Shift: PHEVs Outpacing BEVs

According to Madam Ruiping Wang, CEO of Aurobay, the ICE-producing wing of Geely and a leading supplier in China’s automotive industry, there has been a significant change in the market. In 2023, BEVs accounted for 23% of the Chinese market, while PHEVs represented 11%. However, in April 2024, BEVs decreased to 21%, while PHEVs increased to 15%, making hybrids a total of 19% of the market. Madam Wang predicts that the combined market share of HEVs and PHEVs will surpass BEVs by the end of the year.

Why Are Chinese Drivers Turning to PHEVs?

One of the main reasons for this shift is the practicality of PHEVs for Chinese families. With around 80% of families owning only one car, they require a vehicle that can handle both short city trips and long-distance journeys. While BEVs are suitable for city driving, they may not be as convenient for longer distances due to charging limitations. China’s vast size, with cities spanning thousands of kilometers, makes it challenging to rely solely on BEVs. Additionally, the charging process takes longer compared to refueling at a gas station, further favoring PHEVs.

Much Better PHEV Electric Range

The latest generation of PHEVs entering the Chinese market offers significantly improved electric range compared to their predecessors. Geely’s brand, Link & Co, recently launched the 08 SUV, equipped with a 40kWh battery that provides 245km (153 miles) of pure-battery range. These newer PHEVs also offer fast DC charging, making them more convenient for long journeys. Previous generations only offered slower AC charging, limiting their usefulness to home or work charging stations.

Can PHEVs Provide BEV Benefits For Less Cost?

Cost is another crucial factor contributing to the resurgence of PHEVs in China. Despite batteries still being expensive, PHEVs with smaller battery sizes can offer similar driving experiences to BEVs at a lower overall vehicle price. Even without regular charging, PHEVs provide approximately 40% better fuel consumption compared to conventional fossil fuel cars. However, the cost savings and incentives for charging make it an attractive option for Chinese drivers.

Exploring Other Sustainable Technologies

In addition to PHEVs, Aurobay is also exploring other sustainable technologies such as hydrogen and methanol. They have developed hydrogen combustion engines and methanol motors, which can run on either conventional fossil fuel or pure methanol. Methanol-capable vehicles are already on Chinese roads, and Geely has announced plans to introduce this technology in Malaysia. Methanol production can be environmentally friendly, offering a similar cost per km/mile as BEVs.

The Future of BEVs and ICE

While the current market trend in China suggests a shift towards PHEVs, it is essential to note that Geely still maintains brands dedicated to BEVs. As battery technology improves and becomes more affordable, BEVs will continue to evolve. Solid-state batteries also hold promise for revolutionizing the industry. However, for now, China’s reevaluation of its rush towards pure battery electrification raises questions about the future of BEVs. This trend may extend to Europe and America, where BEV market growth is also slowing down. The internal combustion engine may be staging a temporary comeback, but the long-term future remains focused on sustainable transportation.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

1. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

   • Target 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
   • Indicator 7.2.1: Renewable energy share in the total final energy consumption.

2. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

   • Target 9.4: By 2030, upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable, with increased resource-use efficiency and greater adoption of clean and environmentally sound technologies and industrial processes.
   • Indicator 9.4.1: CO2 emission per unit of value added.

3. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

   • Target 11.6: By 2030, reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities, including by paying special attention to air quality and municipal and other waste management.
   • Indicator 11.6.2: Annual mean levels of fine particulate matter (e.g., PM2.5) in cities.

4. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
   • Indicator 13.1.1: Number of deaths, missing persons, and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population.

Analysis

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

   The issues highlighted in the article are connected to SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and SDG 13 (Climate Action).

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

   Based on the article’s content, the specific targets that can be identified are:

   • Target 7.2: Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
   • Target 9.4: Upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable, with increased resource-use efficiency and greater adoption of clean and environmentally sound technologies and industrial processes.
   • Target 11.6: Reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities, including by paying special attention to air quality and municipal and other waste management.
   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

   Yes, there are indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets:

   • Indicator 7.2.1: Renewable energy share in the total final energy consumption.
   • Indicator 9.4.1: CO2 emission per unit of value added.
   • Indicator 11.6.2: Annual mean levels of fine particulate matter (e.g., PM2.5) in cities.
   • Indicator 13.1.1: Number of deaths, missing persons, and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population.

Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Copyright: Dive into this article, curated with care by SDG Investors Inc. Our advanced AI technology searches through vast amounts of data to spotlight how we are all moving forward with the Sustainable Development Goals. While we own the rights to this content, we invite you to share it to help spread knowledge and spark action on the SDGs.

Fuente: forbes.com

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