BJORN LOMBORG: No need to panic on climate change

Climate Alarmism and the Sustainable Development Goals

Report by: Bjorn Lomborg, President of the Copenhagen Consensus and Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

Introduction

As temperatures continue to rise, climate alarmism has become prevalent, with stories of life-threatening heat domes, apocalyptic fires, and biblical floods often attributed to global warming. However, the data supporting these claims is often cherry-picked, and the proposed policy responses may not be the most effective. This report aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between climate change and its impact on human lives, with a focus on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Heat Waves and Cold Deaths

While it is evident that global warming exacerbates heat waves, media coverage tends to overlook the fact that temperature-driven deaths are predominantly caused by cold. A recent Lancet study revealed that there are nine times more cold deaths globally compared to heat deaths. Although increasing temperatures have led to an additional 116,000 heat deaths annually, they have also prevented 283,000 cold deaths each year. Focusing solely on heat deaths misinforms the public about the broader picture.

Policy Responses and the SDGs

Governments worldwide have committed to achieving “net zero” carbon emissions, which comes at an annual cost exceeding $5.6 trillion. While these policies may instill a sense of safety among populations, they do little to address heat and cold deaths effectively. Even if all carbon-cutting promises were implemented, they would only slow down future warming. A more sensible approach would prioritize resilience, such as increasing access to air conditioning and creating cooler cities through greenery and water features. France’s reforms after the 2003 heat waves, which mandated air conditioning in care homes, resulted in a 10-fold reduction in heat deaths despite higher temperatures. Affordable energy access is also crucial in preventing both cold and heat deaths.

Forest Fires and Climate Change

The media often highlights alarming images of forest fires, creating the impression that the planet is engulfed in flames. However, NASA satellite data shows a downward trend in global fire incidents over the past two decades. In the early 2000s, 3 percent of the world’s land area burned annually, but last year, it decreased to a record low of 2.2 percent. While fires have increased in the Americas this year, they have decreased in Africa and Europe compared to the previous decade. It is essential to provide accurate reporting on these trends.

Floods and Attribution to Climate Change

Floods are often attributed to global warming, but the U.N. Climate Panel’s latest report expresses “low confidence” in making general statements about the link between flood events and anthropogenic climate change. The panel emphasizes that both river and coastal floods cannot be statistically distinguished from natural climate variability. Moreover, the report suggests that such floods will not be statistically detectable by the end of the century, even under extreme scenarios. In the United States, flood damage costs have significantly decreased due to improved resiliency and development, outweighing any residual climate signal.

Climate Change as a Real Problem

While climate alarmism may exaggerate the severity of the issue, it is essential to recognize that global warming will incur costs equivalent to one or two recessions over the rest of this century. This makes it a genuine problem that requires effective approaches at a reasonable cost. Instead of succumbing to panic, a commonsense response would involve careful negotiation to find a middle pathway that minimizes damages while considering the SDGs.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the discourse surrounding climate change should be based on accurate data and a focus on the Sustainable Development Goals. The SDGs provide a framework for addressing climate-related challenges effectively. By resisting misleading and alarmist narratives, we can develop policies that prioritize resilience, affordable energy access, and sustainable development. Panic should not guide our decision-making process.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Analysis

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being
• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
• SDG 13: Climate Action
• SDG 15: Life on Land

The article discusses various issues related to climate change, including heat-related deaths, carbon emissions, forest fires, and floods. These issues are connected to the Sustainable Development Goals mentioned above.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 3.4: By 2030, reduce by one-third premature mortality from non-communicable diseases through prevention and treatment and promote mental health and well-being.
2. SDG 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
3. SDG 11.5: By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct economic losses relative to global gross domestic product caused by disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations.
4. SDG 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
5. SDG 15.2: By 2020, promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests, and substantially increase afforestation and reforestation globally.

The targets mentioned above are relevant to the issues discussed in the article, such as reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases, increasing the share of renewable energy, reducing deaths and economic losses from disasters, strengthening resilience to climate-related hazards, and promoting sustainable forest management.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Number of cold deaths and heat deaths: These indicators can be used to measure progress towards SDG 3.4 (reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases) and SDG 11.5 (reducing deaths and economic losses from disasters).
• Share of renewable energy in the global energy mix: This indicator can be used to measure progress towards SDG 7.2 (increasing the share of renewable energy).
• Extent of forest fires: This indicator can be used to measure progress towards SDG 15.2 (promoting sustainable forest management).

The article mentions the number of cold deaths, heat deaths, and forest fires, which can serve as indicators to measure progress towards the identified targets.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Table

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Source: reviewjournal.com

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