Conflict risk escalates amid rising food and water scarcity and inflationary pressures – World

Ecological Threat Report Highlights Urgent Need for Action on Sustainable Development Goals

London, November 1, 2023: Today marks the annual launch of the Ecological Threat Report, produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP).

Key Findings:

• Ecological threats, such as rapid population growth, water risk, and food insecurity will be compounded by climate change, causing mass displacement of people and conflict.
• A 25% rise in food insecurity increases the risk of conflict by 36%
• Similarly, a 25% increase in the number of people without access to clean drinking water increases the likelihood of conflict by 18%
• 1 billion people are living in 42 countries that currently face severe food insecurity
• 1 in 4 people globally do not have regular access to safe drinking water
• By 2050, 2.8 billion people will reside in countries facing severe ecological threats, compared to 1.8 billion today
• More than 60% of the world’s megacities are growing rapidly and are in countries with high levels of violence or conflict. These cities lack the financial resources to cater for their population growth.

The Ecological Threat Report (ETR) analyses ecological threats globally and assesses the countries and subnational areas most at risk from conflict, civil unrest, and displacement caused by ecological degradation and climate-related events. The report covers 221 countries and independent territories broken down into 3,594 subnational areas.

The main finding from the ETR is that without concerted action, current levels of ecological degradation will worsen, intensifying existing conflicts, and becoming a catalyst for new conflicts, thereby resulting in increases in forced migration.

The number of countries suffering from severe ecological threats and low societal resilience has risen by 3 to 30 in the last year. These ‘hotspot’ countries are home to 1.1 billion people, an increase of 332 million^1^. The recent pressures on global food prices have placed additional demands on countries already suffering from food insecurity.

Hotspot Countries

Three new countries have emerged as ‘hotspots’. They are Niger, Ethiopia, and Myanmar, all of which have entered a detrimental cycle of increasing ecological threats, lower societal resilience, and escalating conflict. Each has faced famine and violence in the last 12 months: Ethiopia’s ongoing conflict, Niger’s recent military coup, and Myanmar’s violence following its coup in 2021.

Ecological degradation and conflict are cyclical, whereby the degradation of resources leads to conflict, while conflict leads to the degradation of resources. Ecological degradation has the biggest impact on conflict in regions like the Sahel, which face major deficiencies in governance, rule of law, high levels of poverty, and short-term climatic variations.

Conflicts often spillover from one country into another, affecting the region and beyond^2^. Currently there are over 108 million people that are displaced, up by 24% since 2020. Estimates show that 30 per cent of all displacements move more than 500 kilometers beyond their home country, with a significant percentage of illegal entries in Europe originating from ecologically threatened and conflict-ridden countries^6^. A significant percentage of Europe’s illegal entries, notably 29% from Syria and 9% from Afghanistan, are from hotspot countries.

Based on current trends, and without substantial efforts to reverse them, IEP estimates show that by 2050, 2.8 billion people will reside in countries facing severe ecological threats compared to 1.8 billion in 2023.

Conflict, Food and Water Stress

Food insecurity is connected to water stress. The ETR estimates that a 25% rise in food insecurity increases conflict risk by 36%, similarly a 25% increase in water risk escalates the likelihood of conflict by 18%. Areas with a history of conflict and weak institutions are the most vulnerable.

Global food prices have increased by 33% since 2016, placing further stress on the most vulnerable. Currently, 42 countries face severe food insecurity, with almost four billion people living in areas with high or severe food insecurity. Most of these countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Two billion people currently live in countries without access to safe drinking water. By 2040, the MENA region will mirror sub-Saharan Africa’s water stress. Eight of the 12 countries in Russia and Eurasia currently face significant water challenges, exacerbated by low rainfall and their topology.

These trends are expected to worsen. It is likely that global warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century, making it harder to stay below 2°C. This is likely to exacerbate ecological degradation and the underlying drivers of conflict^3^.

Natural Disasters, Population and Conflict

Climate change amplifies risks such as droughts, flooding, cyclones, and storms. Death rates are seven times higher in countries with low rather than high levels of resilience and peace. As such, in 2022 the UN Central Emergency Response Fund allocated 35% of its budget to tackling natural disasters, up from 17% a decade ago.

Increasing demographic pressures intensify ecological risks, straining public resources and societal resilience, especially in already vulnerable regions. By 2050, sub-Saharan Africa’s population is predicted to rise to 2.2 billion, an increase of over 60%, which will dramatically increase pressure on existing food and water supplies. By 2050, the number of youths under 15 in the region will account for more than the entire population of Europe, highlighting the dynamic changes in global population distribution.

Steve Killelea, Founder & Executive Chairman of IEP said:

“As we approach COP 28, the Ecological Threat Report provides a timely reminder of the need for leaders to act, invest and build resilience for the future. The number of countries with severe ecological threats that lack the necessary societal resilience to deal with these challenges keeps on increasing, and climate change will only exacerbate these threats.

Countries with high levels of Positive Peace^4^ have the societal resilience to solve these challenges. In a world facing increased ecological degradation, conflict and forced migration, world leaders need to invest in programs that build the capabilities that create positive resilience and drive economic advancement.”

Megacities: Rising

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Identified in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger
• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
• SDG 13: Climate Action
• SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

• Target 2.1: By 2030, end hunger and ensure access by all people, in particular the poor and people in vulnerable situations, including infants, to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round
• Target 6.1: By 2030, achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all
• Target 11.2: By 2030, provide access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport systems for all, improving road safety, notably by expanding public transport, with special attention to the needs of those in vulnerable situations, women, children, persons with disabilities and older persons
• Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries
• Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• A 25% rise in food insecurity increases the risk of conflict by 36%
• A 25% increase in the number of people without access to clean drinking water increases the likelihood of conflict by 18%
• More than 60% of the world’s megacities are growing rapidly and are in countries with high levels of violence or conflict. These cities lack the financial resources to cater for their population growth.
• Climate change amplifies risks such as droughts, flooding, cyclones, and storms. Death rates are seven times higher in countries with low rather than high levels of resilience and peace.
• Conflicts often spillover from one country into another, affecting the region and beyond. Currently, there are over 108 million people that are displaced, up by 24% since 2020.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators