Declining populations free up agricultural land for large amounts of solar in densely populated countries
Declining populations free up agricultural land for large amounts of solar in densely populated countries pv magazine International
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Increase in Solar PV Energy from Freed-Up Agricultural Land in Densely-Populated Countries
Introduction
In a new monthly column for pv magazine, the International Solar Energy Society (ISES) explores the potential of harvesting solar PV energy from freed-up agricultural land in densely-populated countries with declining populations.
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
- SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
- SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
- SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
- SDG 13: Climate Action
- SDG 15: Life on Land
Population Trends
The global population is projected to reach 9.7 billion by mid-century, with significant growth expected in Africa. However, several countries, including China, Russia, Japan, Germany, Italy, South Korea, Spain, Ukraine, and Poland, are experiencing stable or declining populations. The combined population of these countries is expected to decrease by 10% from 2 billion people today to 1.8 billion people in 2050.
Potential for Solar PV Energy
Agricultural land freed up by declining populations can be repurposed for various uses, including hosting solar farms. Solar PV panels are over 100 times more efficient at converting solar energy into useful energy compared to biomass energy from sugar cane, the world’s largest crop by mass. This means that relatively small areas of agricultural land can generate large quantities of electricity.
Assumptions for 2050
- The world achieves zero fossil fuel consumption.
- Solar and wind energy drive electrification of transport, heating, and industry.
- Solar and wind energy drive electrolytic production of large amounts of hydrogen for chemicals, including energy exports from sunbelt countries to Europe and elsewhere.
- Per capita energy consumption reaches the levels of high-income countries.
- Agricultural land is freed up in proportion to population decline.
Energy Consumption and Generation
In a fully decarbonized world with a population of 9.7 billion people in 2050, the energy consumption is estimated to be 20 MWh per person per year. This would require approximately 200,000 TWh per year of electricity, compared to the current global electricity consumption of 30,000 TWh per year.
Potential Solar Generation
To maximize energy harvest per unit area, dense arrays of high-efficiency solar panels with a low tilt are assumed to be scattered across agricultural regions. The projected population in 2050, agricultural land in 2022, and the potential solar generation from freed-up land are summarized in Table 1.
| Country | Population in 2050 (millions) | Population decline by 2050 | Agricultural land in 2022 (1000 km2) | Freed-up land in 2050 (1000 km2) | Potential extra generation (TWh/year) | Required generation (TWh/year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 1320 | 8% | 5285 | 404 | 80,000 | 26,000 |
| Russia | 133 | 8% | 2155 | 169 | 29,000 | 2,700 |
| Japan | 104 | 16% | 44 | 7 | 1,600 | 2,100 |
| Germany | 79 | 5% | 166 | 9 | 1,500 | 1,600 |
| Italy | 52 | 11% | 130 | 15 | 3,600 | 1,100 |
| Korea | 46 | 11% | 16 | 2 | 400 | 900 |
| Spain | 44 | 7% | 261 | 18 | 5,000 | 900 |
| Ukraine | 33 | 24% | 413 | 98 | 20,000 | 700 |
| Poland | 35 | 8% | 145 | 12 | 2200 | 700 |
| TOTALS | 1800 | 2155 | 734 | 143,000 | 37,000 |
SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Analysis
1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?
- SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
- SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
- SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
- SDG 13: Climate Action
- SDG 15: Life on Land
The article discusses the potential use of freed-up agricultural land for hosting solar farms, which directly relates to SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy). It also mentions the role of solar and wind energy in driving electrification and decarbonization, which aligns with SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure). The concept of utilizing agricultural land for solar energy generation is relevant to SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) as it promotes sustainable land use. Additionally, the article highlights the need to transition to renewable energy sources to address climate change, linking to SDG 13 (Climate Action). Lastly, the mention of utilizing agricultural land for solar farms also connects to SDG 15 (Life on Land) as it involves repurposing land for sustainable energy production.
2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?
- SDG 7.2: Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
- SDG 9.4: Upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable.
- SDG 11.3: Enhance inclusive and sustainable urbanization and capacity for participatory, integrated, and sustainable human settlement planning and management.
- SDG 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning.
- SDG 15.3: Combat desertification, restore degraded land, and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world.
The targets identified are based on the article’s focus on renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure, sustainable urbanization, climate change integration, and land restoration.
3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?
Yes, the article mentions several indicators that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets:
- Share of renewable energy in the global energy mix
- Investment in renewable energy infrastructure
- Number of solar PV farms on freed-up agricultural land
- Reduction in fossil fuel consumption
- Energy generation capacity from solar PV farms
- Integration of climate change measures in national policies and planning
- Extent of land restoration and combatting desertification
These indicators can be used to track the transition towards renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure, climate change integration, and land restoration.
Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
| SDGs | Targets | Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy | Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. | – Share of renewable energy in the global energy mix – Investment in renewable energy infrastructure |
| SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure | Upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable. | – Investment in renewable energy infrastructure |
| SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities | Enhance inclusive and sustainable urbanization and capacity for participatory, integrated, and sustainable human settlement planning and management. | – Number of solar PV farms on freed-up agricultural land |
| SDG 13: Climate Action | Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning. | – Integration of climate change measures in national policies and planning |
| SDG 15: Life on Land | Combat desertification, restore degraded land, and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world. | – Extent of land restoration and combatting desertification |
Behold! This splendid article springs forth from the wellspring of knowledge, shaped by a wondrous proprietary AI technology that delved into a vast ocean of data, illuminating the path towards the Sustainable Development Goals. Remember that all rights are reserved by SDG Investors LLC, empowering us to champion progress together.
Source: pv-magazine.com
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