Did rapid climate changes trigger social unrest in China over past 4,000 years?

How an ancient Chinese city used ‘collective power’ to divert flood threats

“Our study enhances the understanding of climate change and the historical evolution of ancient civilizations in northern China by providing crucial insights into effective moisture dynamics,” the researchers said.

The team included scientists from the CAS’ State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, the Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry at Nanjing University and the Department of Earth Science at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

How an ancient Chinese city used ‘collective power’ to divert flood threats

To find out the precise role of climate change in ancient social unrest, the team looked for clues in northern China’s Central Plains region, where an agrarian civilization emerged around 4,000 years ago.

The researchers took sediment samples from Beilianchi Lake on the Loess Plateau, an area of recurrent episodes of large-scale unrest which changed societal structures and dynastic cycles, as well as significant shifts in climatic conditions over four millennia.

“These episodes were marked by extended civil peasant uprisings and/or incursions from northern nomadic tribes, often spanning decades to centuries,” the research team said.

Preserved sediments from the small lake – about 20,000 square meters (215,278 sq ft) – yielded enough reliable evidence of effective moisture changes for the team to reconstruct a well-dated and sensitive record.

The researchers identified four dry and three wet periods in northern China from the sediment record, which they integrated with mean annual precipitation and temperature records.

The team then turned to Chinese history to discover how the records matched with the episodes of unrest that marked today’s Shanxi province on the Loess Plateau, a “transition zone” between the agrarian Central Plains and lands inhabited by nomadic groups since ancient times.

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Three major episodes – in the Spring and Autumn period from 770-476 BC, the Warring States period (475-221 BC), and the 220-581 AD Wei, Jin, Northern and Southern dynasties – were studied, as was the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms period of 907-979 AD.

The researchers observed that the frequency of wars in the region during these three episodes, as well as the Ming dynasty in 1450-1600 AD “generally coincide with dry-cold conditions”.

“In the fragile ecology of semi-arid and semi-humid northern China, climate deterioration would diminish land productivity and accelerate ecological deterioration, which might induce civil wars due to recurrent food shortages,” they said.

But the researchers noted that not all cold-dry periods saw broad civil social unrest and frequent wars, suggesting that “intensified social tensions represent a primary and likely more significant factor contributing to episodes of large-scale social unrest”.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators in the Article

SDG 13: Climate Action

– Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters.
– Indicator 13.1.1: Number of deaths, missing persons, and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population.

SDG 1: No Poverty

– Target 1.1: By 2030, eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere, currently measured as people living on less than $1.25 a day.
– Indicator 1.1.1: Proportion of population below the international poverty line, by sex, age, employment status, and geographical location.

SDG 2: Zero Hunger

– Target 2.1: By 2030, end hunger and ensure access by all people, in particular, the poor and people in vulnerable situations, including infants, to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food all year round.
– Indicator 2.1.2: Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the population, based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES).

SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions

– Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere.
– Indicator 16.1.1: Number of victims of intentional homicide per 100,000 population, by sex and age.

Analysis

1. The issues highlighted in the article are connected to SDGs 13 (Climate Action), 1 (No Poverty), 2 (Zero Hunger), and 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions).

2. Specific targets under these SDGs that can be identified based on the article’s content are:
– Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters.
– Target 1.1: Eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere.
– Target 2.1: End hunger and ensure access to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food all year round.
– Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere.

3. The article does not explicitly mention indicators to measure progress towards the identified targets. However, potential indicators that can be used include:
– Indicator 13.1.1: Number of deaths, missing persons, and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population.
– Indicator 1.1.1: Proportion of population below the international poverty line, by sex, age, employment status, and geographical location.
– Indicator 2.1.2: Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the population, based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES).
– Indicator 16.1.1: Number of victims of intentional homicide per 100,000 population, by sex and age.

4. Table presenting the findings:

| SDGs | Targets | Indicators |
|——|———|————|
| SDG 13: Climate Action | Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters. | Indicator 13.1.1: Number of deaths, missing persons, and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population. |
| SDG 1: No Poverty | Target 1.1: Eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere. | Indicator 1.1.1: Proportion of population below the international poverty line, by sex, age, employment status, and geographical location. |
| SDG 2: Zero Hunger | Target 2.1: End hunger and ensure access to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food all year round. | Indicator 2.1.2: Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the population, based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES). |
| SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions | Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere. | Indicator 16.1.1: Number of victims of intentional homicide per 100,000 population, by sex and age. |

Behold! This splendid article springs forth from the wellspring of knowledge, shaped by a wondrous proprietary AI technology that delved into a vast ocean of data, illuminating the path towards the Sustainable Development Goals. Remember that all rights are reserved by SDG Investors LLC, empowering us to champion progress together.

Source: scmp.com

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