Divergence in land CO2 flux estimates: new research offers more consistent accounting
Divergence in land CO2 flux estimates: new research offers more ... European Union
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Land-based Mitigation and the Paris Agreement
Introduction
Land-based mitigation plays a crucial role in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement’s goal of reaching climate neutrality. It involves balancing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) with the removals of carbon sinks. However, there is a gap in the accounting methods used by countries and global scientific models, making it challenging to assess collective progress under the Paris Agreement’s periodic assessment known as the Global Stocktake.
The Study
A new paper published in Nature, led by IIASA and co-authored by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), aims to address this gap and ensure accurate assessment of progress without “comparing apples and oranges.” The study utilizes the OSCAR climate model to align global pathways with countries’ greenhouse inventories. It reveals that emission benchmarks become more challenging when using countries’ definition of anthropogenic sinks.
Key Findings
The study highlights that achieving net-zero emissions must happen faster, up to five years before previously estimated target dates. This means that the remaining global carbon budget compatible with the Paris Agreement’s goal needs to be reduced. The study also warns against relying too heavily on land CO₂ sinks for national climate targets, as they may become a net source of emissions by the end of this century. The CO₂ fertilization effect that currently drives the land sink is expected to decline in low-warming scenarios, while the negative impacts of climate change may increase.
Recommendations
- Ensure transparency in the expected land sector contribution to national climate targets.
- Clarify countries’ deforestation pledges.
- Establish an “operational translation system” for better understanding between scientific and practitioner communities.
- Incorporate the alignment proposed in this study in future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.
Implications
This study emphasizes the importance of measuring progress in a like-for-like manner, especially considering the urgent need for drastic emissions cuts to stay within the Paris Agreement limits. The findings provide critical information for the forthcoming COP28, where the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement will assess collective climate progress, and for the next round of countries’ climate pledges, expected within two years.
National Inventories vs Global Models
A previous study led by the JRC highlighted a large discrepancy in estimates of land use CO₂ fluxes between global models and national greenhouse inventories. This discrepancy arises from differences in defining anthropogenic forest CO₂ sinks and areas of managed land. National GHG inventories include the response of land to human-caused environmental changes, while global models treat this response as part of the non-anthropogenic sink. Consistent definitions are crucial for assessing collective climate progress and determining the remaining carbon budget under the Paris Agreement.
Related Links
- Aligning climate scenarios to emissions inventories shifts global benchmarks
- Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries’ climate progress
SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
| SDGs | Targets | Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| SDG 13: Climate Action | Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning | Indicator not mentioned in the article |
| SDG 15: Life on Land | Target 15.3: By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought, and floods, and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world | Indicator not mentioned in the article |
| SDG 13: Climate Action | Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries | Indicator not mentioned in the article |
| SDG 13: Climate Action | Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning | Indicator not mentioned in the article |
| SDG 13: Climate Action | Target 13.a: Implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion annually by 2020 from all sources to address the needs of developing countries in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation and fully operationalize the Green Climate Fund through its capitalization as soon as possible | Indicator not mentioned in the article |
| SDG 13: Climate Action | Target 13.b: Promote mechanisms for raising capacity for effective climate change-related planning and management in least developed countries and small island developing States, including focusing on women, youth, and local and marginalized communities | Indicator not mentioned in the article |
| SDG 13: Climate Action | Target 13.c: Promote mechanisms for raising capacity for effective climate change-related planning and management in least developed countries and small island developing States, including focusing on women, youth, and local and marginalized communities | Indicator not mentioned in the article |
Behold! This splendid article springs forth from the wellspring of knowledge, shaped by a wondrous proprietary AI technology that delved into a vast ocean of data, illuminating the path towards the Sustainable Development Goals. Remember that all rights are reserved by SDG Investors LLC, empowering us to champion progress together.
Source: joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu
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